{"id":4322,"date":"2022-09-03T10:03:21","date_gmt":"2022-09-03T10:03:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/?page_id=4322"},"modified":"2022-09-03T10:03:27","modified_gmt":"2022-09-03T10:03:27","slug":"3-9-7","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/en\/3-9-7\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0630\u0627\u062a \u062e\u0648\u0627\u0631\u0632\u0645\u064a\u0627\u062a \u062a\u062c\u0645\u064a\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0647\u0637\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0645\u0637\u0627\u0631 \u0628\u062f\u0642\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u062a\u0646\u0642\u064a\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0628\u062f\u0648\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0645\u064a\u0646\u00a0\u0639\u0628\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0644\u0647\u00a0\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0645\u064a\u0646\u00a0\u0637\u06471<\/sup> \u0645\u0631\u062a\u0636\u0649 \u0645\u0627\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u062c2<\/sup>\u00a0 \u0639\u0627\u0637\u0641 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u06283<\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n

1<\/sup> \u0645\u062d\u0627\u0636\u0631 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0639\u0648\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0631\u0648\u0646\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n

2<\/sup> \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0627\u0630 \u0645\u0633\u0627\u0639\u062f \u0641\u064a \u062a\u0642\u0627\u0646\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0641\u0631\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629<\/p>\n

3<\/sup> \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0627\u0630 \u0645\u0633\u0627\u0639\u062f \u0634\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0623\u0643\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0632\u064a\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n

HNSJ, 2022, 3(9); https:\/\/doi.org\/10.53796\/hnsj397<\/p>\n

\u062a\u0646\u0632\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0641
\n<\/a><\/p>\n

\u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0634\u0631: 01\/09\/2022\u0645 \u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0628\u0648\u0644: 15\/08\/2022\u0645<\/p>\n

\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062e\u0644\u0635 <\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u0627\u0644\u0643\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0641\u062a\u0627\u062d\u064a\u0629: <\/strong>\u062a\u0646\u0642\u064a\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a\u060c \u0647\u0637\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0645\u0637\u0627\u0631\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0645\u064a\u0639\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0642\u0629\u060c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0635\u0648\u064a\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0644\u0628.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Research title <\/strong><\/p>\n

Building a model with stable aggregate algorithms to accurately predict rainfall rates in data mining in the Sudan<\/strong><\/p>\n

Alameen abdallah Alameen Taha1<\/sup>, Murtada Malik Adam Elhaj2<\/sup>, \u00a0Atif Muawia Eltaib3<\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n

1 <\/sup>Lecturer at the Saudi Electronic University.<\/p>\n

2 <\/sup>Assistant Professor of Information Technology, International University of Africa<\/p>\n

3 <\/sup>Assistant Professor, Al Jazeera International Academy Company.<\/p>\n

HNSJ, 2022, 3(9); https:\/\/doi.org\/10.53796\/hnsj397<\/p>\n

Published at 01\/09\/2022 Accepted at 15\/08\/2021 <\/strong><\/p>\n

Abstract <\/strong><\/p>\n

Predicting rainfall rates takes high importance in moving the production wheel in countries. The study aims to build an aggregate model of five more accurate and stable algorithms and train them sufficiently using large data volumes to solve the problem of instability and insufficient training. A model for the solution consisting of several steps has been proposed; Goals setting, data collection, data processing, feature selection, evaluation of the ten unary algorithms through training and testing, selection of the best five algorithms (Decision Tree, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbor, XGB, and Bagging) based on accuracy, build an aggregate model with the best prediction algorithms in terms of accuracy, train it and test it for the purpose of evaluation after prediction. The study reached the most important results which includes the design of a model to predict rainfall rates using the aggregation model, the model achieved an accuracy rate of Accuracy of 77.6%, Precision of 75.6%, Recall of 77.6%, and F1-score of 76.5%, and prediction of rainfall rates using specific millimeter categories, which It achieves accuracy and stability in forecasting the rate of precipitation.<\/p>\n

Key Words: <\/strong>Data mining, Rainfall, Ensemble Models, Accuracy, Hard voting.<\/p>\n

\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0629<\/h1>\n

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\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0645\u064a\u0632\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062b\u0644\u0649. \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u062a\u0646\u0641\u0630 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0634\u062c\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 Decision Tree\u060c \u0627\u0644\u063a\u0627\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 Random Forest\u060c \u0623\u0642\u0631\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0646 K k-Nearest Neighbors\u060c \u062a\u0639\u0632\u064a\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0631\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0634\u062f\u064a\u062f XGB\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0628\u0626\u0629 Bagging. \u0644\u0623\u063a\u0631\u0627\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u064a\u064a\u0645\u060c \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u064a\u064a\u0631 \u0647\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0642\u0629 Accuracy\u060c \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 Precision\u060c Recall \u0648F1Score. \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u0623\u062c\u0644 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0647\u064a\u0626\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0631\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0628\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0639\u062f\u062f 27 \u0645\u062d\u0637\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 01\/01\/ 2000 \u0648 31\/12\/2021\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u062d\u062a\u0648\u064a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0639\u062f\u062f 216.972 \u0633\u062c\u0644 \u0645\u0634\u062a\u0645\u0644\u0627 35 \u0645\u064a\u0632\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0647\u064a\u0626\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0625\u0631\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u062f\u0639 \u0639\u0628\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062a\u0631\u0646\u062a \u0628\u0645\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0646\u0627\u0633\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0636\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n

\u062e\u0648\u0627\u0631\u0632\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0634\u062c\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 <\/a>Decision Tree \u0647\u064a \u0646\u0648\u0639 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0622\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0636\u0639 \u0644\u0644\u0625\u0634\u0631\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0644\u062a\u0635\u0646\u064a\u0641 \u0623\u0648 \u0639\u0645\u0644 \u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624\u0627\u062a \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621\u064b \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0643\u064a\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0627\u0628\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0626\u0644\u0629. \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0647\u0648 \u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0623\u0634\u0643\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0644\u0645 \u062a\u062d\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0634\u0631\u0627\u0641\u060c \u0628\u0645\u0639\u0646\u0649 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u064a\u062a\u0645 \u062a\u062f\u0631\u064a\u0628\u0647 \u0648\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0647 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u062d\u062a\u0648\u064a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0635\u0646\u064a\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0637\u0644\u0648\u0628 [2].<\/p>\n

\u062e\u0648\u0627\u0631\u0632\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u063a\u0627\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 Random Forest \u062a\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u062a\u0648\u0644\u064a\u062f \u0639\u064a\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0644\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0631\u064a\u0628\u060c \u062b\u0645 \u062a\u0642\u0648\u0645 \u0628\u0625\u0646\u0634\u0627\u0621 \u0634\u062c\u0631\u0629 \u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0644\u0643\u0644 \u0639\u064a\u0646\u0629\u060c \u0648\u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062e\u064a\u0631\u0629. \u062a\u062c\u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0648\u0627\u0631\u0632\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u062c\u0645\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0645\u0646 \u0634\u062c\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644 \u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621\u064b \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0622\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0635\u0648\u064a\u062a. \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0644\u062e\u0648\u0627\u0631\u0632\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u063a\u0627\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u062f\u0645\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0636\u0639\u064a\u0641\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0642\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0637\u0631\u0641\u0629. \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u062c\u0627\u0646\u0628 \u0630\u0644\u0643\u060c \u0644\u0627 \u062a\u062a\u0623\u062b\u0631 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0631\u0643\u064a\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0627\u0626\u062f [3].<\/p>\n

\u062e\u0648\u0627\u0631\u0632\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u0642\u0631\u0628 \u062c\u0627\u0631 K-Nearest Neighbor \u0647\u064a \u062a\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0634\u0627\u0628\u0647 \u0623\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0627\u0641\u0629 [4]. \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0648\u0627\u0631\u0632\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u062d\u0644 \u0645\u0634\u0627\u0643\u0644 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0635\u0646\u064a\u0641 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631. \u064a\u0635\u0646\u0641 \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0625\u064a\u062c\u0627\u062f \u0623\u0642\u0631\u0628 \u0646\u0642\u0637\u0629 \u0645\u062c\u0627\u0648\u0631\u0629 [5]\u060c \u0648\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0642\u0644\u064a\u062f\u064a\u0629 (Euclidean distance) \u0648\u062c\u064a\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0645\u064a\u064a\u0632 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u062c\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0631\u064a\u0628 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 [6] [7].<\/p>\n

\u062e\u0648\u0627\u0631\u0632\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0639\u0632\u064a\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0631\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0634\u062f\u064a\u062f XGBoost \u0647\u064a \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0648\u0627\u0631\u0632\u0645\u064a\u0651\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0651\u0639\u0632\u064a\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0627\u0626\u0639\u0629 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0643\u0628\u064a\u0631 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0646\u0637\u0627\u0642 \u0648\u0627\u0633\u0639 \u0644\u0623\u0646\u0651\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0628\u0633\u0627\u0637\u0629 \u0642\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u062c\u062f\u0627\u064b\u060c \u0648\u062a\u0639\u062a\u0628\u0631 \u0645\u0634\u0627\u0628\u0647\u0629 \u0644\u062e\u0648\u0627\u0631\u0632\u0645\u064a\u0651\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0651\u0639\u0632\u064a\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0634\u062a\u0642\u0627\u0642\u064a\u0651 Gradient Boost \u0644\u0643\u0646\u0651\u0647\u0627 \u062a\u062d\u062a\u0648\u064a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0628\u0639\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0632\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0636\u0627\u0641\u064a\u0651\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u062c\u0639\u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0623\u0642\u0648\u0649 \u0628\u0643\u062b\u064a\u0631\u061b \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0651\u062f\u0631\u064a\u0628 \u0633\u0631\u064a\u0639 \u062c\u062f\u0627\u064b \u0648\u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u062a\u0647 \u0623\u0648 \u062a\u0648\u0632\u064a\u0639\u0647 \u0639\u0628\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u0627\u062a. [8]<\/p>\n

\u062e\u0648\u0627\u0631\u0632\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0628\u0626\u0629 Bagging \u062a\u064f\u0639\u0631\u0641 \u062a\u0642\u0646\u064a\u0629 Bagging \u0623\u064a\u0636\u064b\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u0645 Bootstrap Aggregation \u0648\u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645\u0647\u0627 \u0644\u062d\u0644 \u0645\u0634\u0627\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0635\u0646\u064a\u0641 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631. \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0625\u0636\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0630\u0644\u0643\u060c \u062a\u0639\u0645\u0644 \u062e\u0648\u0627\u0631\u0632\u0645\u064a\u0627\u062a Bagging \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u062d\u0633\u064a\u0646 \u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u062f\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c. \u062a\u062a\u0623\u0644\u0641 Bagging \u0645\u0646 \u062b\u0644\u0627\u062b \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0627\u062a: bootstrapping\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0631\u064a\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u064a parallel training\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0645\u064a\u0639 aggregation. [9].<\/p>\n

\u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u062a\u0645 \u062a\u0642\u0633\u064a\u0645\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u0633\u0628\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0642\u0633\u0627\u0645\u061b \u0623\u0648\u0644\u0627\u064b: \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0629 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u062a\u062d\u062a\u0648\u064a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0629\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0643\u0644\u0629\u060c \u062d\u062f\u0648\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b\u060c \u0623\u0647\u062f\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b\u060c \u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b\u060c \u0648\u0627\u062c\u0631\u0627\u0621\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b. \u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0627\u064b: \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u062a\u0634\u0645\u0644 11 \u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629 \u0648\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646\u0647\u0645. \u062b\u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u064b: \u0641\u0643\u0631\u0629 \u0648\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0648\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062a\u0631\u062d. \u0631\u0627\u0628\u0639\u0627\u064b: \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c. \u062e\u0627\u0645\u0633\u0627\u064b: \u0645\u0646\u0627\u0642\u0634\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c. \u0633\u0627\u062f\u0633\u0627: \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u062a\u0645\u0629. \u0648\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0639\u0627\u064b: \u0642\u0627\u0626\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0627\u062f\u0631 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u062c\u0639.<\/p>\n