{"id":13226,"date":"2025-05-01T07:02:49","date_gmt":"2025-05-01T07:02:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/?page_id=13226"},"modified":"2025-05-01T07:02:51","modified_gmt":"2025-05-01T07:02:51","slug":"6-5-15","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/en\/6-5-15\/","title":{"rendered":""},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"journal-article\" style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\"><h3 style='text-align: right; font-family:Simplified Arabic;'>\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d (1994-2013)<\/h3><p style='text-align:right; font-weight:bold; direction:rtl;'>\u062f. \u0639\u0628\u0627\u0633 \u0639\u0628\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u064a\u0632 \u062c\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0645\u062d\u0645\u0648\u062f<sup>1<\/sup><\/p><div style='direction:rtl; text-align:right; font-size:12px; line-height:1.5;'><p><sup>1<\/sup> \u0642\u0633\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0627\u062a\u060c \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0639\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0632\u0647\u0631\u064a\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646.<\/p><\/div><h4 style='text-align:left; direction:ltr; unicode-bidi:embed; font-family:Times New Roman;'>Building a mathematical model using time series in wheat production (1994-2013)<\/h4><p style='text-align:left; font-weight:bold; direction:ltr; margin-top:12px;'>Dr. Abbas Abdelaziz Jumaa Mahmoud<sup>1<\/sup><\/p><div style='direction:ltr; text-align:left; font-size:12px; line-height:1.7; margin-bottom:10px;'><p style='margin:0 0 8px 0;'><sup>1<\/sup> Department of Mathematics, Al-Zaeem Al-Azhari University, Sudan.<\/p><\/div><p style='text-align:left;'><strong>DOI:<\/strong> <a href='https:\/\/doi.org\/https:\/\/doi.org\/10.53796\/hnsj65\/15' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>https:\/\/doi.org\/10.53796\/hnsj65\/15<\/a><\/p><p style='text-align: right;'><strong>\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0645\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0628\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0623\u0628\u062d\u0627\u062b:<\/strong> <a href='https:\/\/arsri.org\/10000\/65\/15' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>https:\/\/arsri.org\/10000\/65\/15<\/a><\/p><p style='text-align: right;'><strong>\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062c\u0644\u062f (6) \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u062f (5). \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u062d\u0627\u062a:<\/strong> 166 - 174<\/p><p style='text-align: right;'><strong>\u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0627\u0644:<\/strong> 2025-04-07 | <strong>\u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0628\u0648\u0644:<\/strong> 2025-04-15 | <strong>\u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0634\u0631:<\/strong> 2025-05-01<\/p><p><a href='\/volume6\/issue5\/6-5-15.pdf' target='_blank' rel='noopener' style='background-color:green;color:white;padding:10px 15px;text-decoration:none;border-radius:5px;'>Download PDF<\/a><\/p>\r\n<style>\r\n.hnsj-cite-btn{\r\n  display:inline-flex; gap:8px; align-items:center;\r\n  padding:10px 14px; border-radius:10px;\r\n  border:1px solid #0b5ed7; background:#0b5ed7; color:#fff;\r\n  cursor:pointer; font-weight:700;\r\n}\r\n.hnsj-cite-btn:hover{background:#084bb0;border-color:#084bb0}\r\n.hnsj-cite-note{display:block;margin-top:6px;font-size:13px;opacity:.85}\r\n\r\n.hnsj-modal-backdrop{\r\n  position:fixed; inset:0; background:rgba(0,0,0,.55);\r\n  display:none; z-index:99998;\r\n}\r\n.hnsj-modal{\r\n  position:fixed; left:50%; top:50%; transform:translate(-50%,-50%);\r\n  width:min(760px,94vw); background:#fff; border-radius:14px;\r\n  box-shadow:0 12px 35px rgba(0,0,0,.28);\r\n  display:none; z-index:99999; overflow:hidden;\r\n  border:1px solid rgba(0,0,0,.08);\r\n}\r\n\r\n.hnsj-modal-header{\r\n  display:flex; justify-content:space-between; align-items:center;\r\n  padding:14px 16px; border-bottom:1px solid #eee; background:#f8fafc;\r\n}\r\n.hnsj-modal-title{font-size:16px;font-weight:800;color:#111827}\r\n.hnsj-modal-close{\r\n  border:1px solid #d1d5db; background:#fff;\r\n  width:34px; height:34px; border-radius:10px;\r\n  font-size:18px; cursor:pointer; line-height:0; color:#111827;\r\n}\r\n.hnsj-modal-close:hover{background:#f3f4f6}\r\n\r\n.hnsj-tabs{\r\n  display:flex; gap:10px; padding:10px 16px;\r\n  border-bottom:1px solid #f0f0f0; justify-content:flex-end;\r\n}\r\n.hnsj-tab{\r\n  padding:10px 14px; border-radius:10px;\r\n  border:1px solid #cfcfcf; background:#f3f4f6;\r\n  cursor:pointer; font-weight:800; color:#111827;\r\n}\r\n.hnsj-tab:hover{background:#e5e7eb;border-color:#9ca3af}\r\n.hnsj-tab.active{\r\n  background:#0b5ed7; border-color:#0b5ed7; color:#fff;\r\n  box-shadow:0 2px 10px rgba(11,94,215,.18);\r\n}\r\n\r\n.hnsj-modal-body{padding:14px 16px}\r\n.hnsj-row{\r\n  display:flex; gap:10px; flex-wrap:wrap; align-items:center;\r\n  margin-bottom:10px; justify-content:flex-end;\r\n}\r\n.hnsj-select{\r\n  padding:10px 12px; border-radius:10px;\r\n  border:1px solid #cfcfcf; min-width:220px;\r\n  background:#fff; color:#111827; font-weight:700;\r\n}\r\n.hnsj-copy{\r\n  padding:10px 14px; border-radius:10px;\r\n  border:1px solid #0b5ed7; background:#0b5ed7; color:#fff;\r\n  cursor:pointer; font-weight:800;\r\n}\r\n.hnsj-copy:hover{background:#084bb0;border-color:#084bb0}\r\n\r\n.hnsj-textarea{\r\n  width:100%; min-height:130px; padding:12px;\r\n  border-radius:12px; border:1px solid #cfcfcf;\r\n  line-height:1.7; resize:vertical; color:#111827; background:#fff;\r\n}\r\n.hnsj-actions{display:flex; justify-content:space-between; align-items:center; margin-top:10px; gap:10px; flex-wrap:wrap;}\r\n.hnsj-dl{\r\n  padding:10px 14px;\r\n  border-radius:10px;\r\n  border:1px solid #0b5ed7;\r\n  background:#0b5ed7;\r\n  color:#fff;\r\n  cursor:pointer;\r\n  font-weight:800;\r\n}\r\n.hnsj-dl:hover{background:#084bb0;border-color:#084bb0}\r\n\/* Force the citation modal UI to be independent from site RTL\/LTR *\/\r\n.hnsj-modal,\r\n.hnsj-modal *{\r\n  direction: ltr;\r\n  text-align: left;\r\n}\r\n\r\n\/* Keep the header title readable *\/\r\n.hnsj-modal-header{\r\n  direction: ltr;\r\n}\r\n<\/style>\r\n\r\n<script>\r\n(function(){\r\n  function slugifyFileName(s){\r\n    return (s || 'citation')\r\n      .toString()\r\n      .trim()\r\n      .replace(\/^https?:\\\/\\\/\/i,'')\r\n      .replace(\/[^a-z0-9]+\/gi,'-')\r\n      .replace(\/-+\/g,'-')\r\n      .replace(\/^-|-$\/g,'')\r\n      .toLowerCase();\r\n  }\r\n\r\n  function downloadTextFile(filename, content, mime){\r\n    var blob = new Blob([content], { type: mime || 'text\/plain;charset=utf-8' });\r\n    var url = URL.createObjectURL(blob);\r\n    var a = document.createElement('a');\r\n    a.href = url;\r\n    a.download = filename;\r\n    document.body.appendChild(a);\r\n    a.click();\r\n    a.remove();\r\n    setTimeout(function(){ URL.revokeObjectURL(url); }, 500);\r\n  }\r\n\r\n  function splitAuthors(str){\r\n    if(!str) return [];\r\n    return str\r\n      .split(\/,|\u061b|\u060c|;|\\n\/g)\r\n      .map(s => s.trim())\r\n      .filter(Boolean);\r\n  }\r\n\r\n  function buildRIS(m, langKey){\r\n    const title   = (langKey === 'ar') ? (m.title_ar || m.title_en || '') : (m.title_en || m.title_ar || '');\r\n    const journal = (langKey === 'ar') ? (m.journal_ar || m.journal_en || '') : (m.journal_en || m.journal_ar || '');\r\n    const authors = splitAuthors((langKey === 'ar') ? (m.authors_ar || m.authors_en || '') : (m.authors_en || m.authors_ar || ''));\r\n\r\n    let ris = '';\r\n    ris += 'TY  - JOUR\\n';\r\n    if (title)   ris += 'TI  - ' + title + '\\n';\r\n    authors.forEach(a => { ris += 'AU  - ' + a + '\\n'; });\r\n    if (journal) ris += 'JO  - ' + journal + '\\n';\r\n    if (m.year)  ris += 'PY  - ' + m.year + '\\n';\r\n    if (m.volume)ris += 'VL  - ' + m.volume + '\\n';\r\n    if (m.issue) ris += 'IS  - ' + m.issue + '\\n';\r\n    if (m.doi)   ris += 'DO  - ' + m.doi + '\\n';\r\n    if (m.url)   ris += 'UR  - ' + m.url + '\\n';\r\n    ris += 'ER  - \\n';\r\n    return ris;\r\n  }\r\n\r\n  function buildBibTeX(m, langKey){\r\n    const title   = (langKey === 'ar') ? (m.title_ar || m.title_en || '') : (m.title_en || m.title_ar || '');\r\n    const journal = (langKey === 'ar') ? (m.journal_ar || m.journal_en || '') : (m.journal_en || m.journal_ar || '');\r\n    const authorStr = (langKey === 'ar') ? (m.authors_ar || m.authors_en || '') : (m.authors_en || m.authors_ar || '');\r\n\r\n    const keyBase = slugifyFileName(m.doi || title || 'hnsj');\r\n    const key = (keyBase || 'hnsj').slice(0, 40);\r\n\r\n    let bib = '';\r\n    bib += '@article{' + key + ',\\n';\r\n    if (title)      bib += '  title = {' + title + '},\\n';\r\n    if (authorStr)  bib += '  author = {' + authorStr + '},\\n';\r\n    if (journal)    bib += '  journal = {' + journal + '},\\n';\r\n    if (m.year)     bib += '  year = {' + m.year + '},\\n';\r\n    if (m.volume)   bib += '  volume = {' + m.volume + '},\\n';\r\n    if (m.issue)    bib += '  number = {' + m.issue + '},\\n';\r\n    if (m.doi)      bib += '  doi = {' + m.doi + '},\\n';\r\n    if (m.url)      bib += '  url = {' + m.url + '},\\n';\r\n    bib = bib.replace(\/,\\n$\/, '\\n');\r\n    bib += '}\\n';\r\n    return bib;\r\n  }\r\n\r\n  function initHnsjCite(root){\r\n    if(!root) return;\r\n\r\n    \/\/ Guard: do not bind twice\r\n    if (root.dataset.hnsjInited === '1') return;\r\n    root.dataset.hnsjInited = '1';\r\n\r\n    const openBtn = root.querySelector('[data-hnsj-open]');\r\n    const modal   = root.querySelector('[data-hnsj-modal]');\r\n    const back    = root.querySelector('[data-hnsj-backdrop]');\r\n    const closeBtn= root.querySelector('[data-hnsj-close]');\r\n\r\n    const tabs    = modal.querySelectorAll('.hnsj-tab');\r\n    const select  = modal.querySelector('[data-hnsj-style]');\r\n    const box     = modal.querySelector('[data-hnsj-box]');\r\n    const copyBtn = modal.querySelector('[data-hnsj-copy]');\r\n    const dlBtns  = modal.querySelectorAll('[data-hnsj-dl]');\r\n\r\n    let lang = 'en';\r\n    let citEn = {};\r\n    let citAr = {};\r\n    let meta = {};\r\n\r\n    function parseData(){\r\n      try{ citEn = JSON.parse(modal.getAttribute('data-cit-en') || '{}'); }catch(e){ citEn = {}; }\r\n      try{ citAr = JSON.parse(modal.getAttribute('data-cit-ar') || '{}'); }catch(e){ citAr = {}; }\r\n      try{ meta  = JSON.parse(modal.getAttribute('data-meta')  || '{}'); }catch(e){ meta = {}; }\r\n    }\r\n\r\n    function setLang(newLang){\r\n      lang = newLang;\r\n      tabs.forEach(t => t.classList.toggle('active', t.dataset.lang === lang));\r\n\r\n      const data = (lang === 'ar') ? citAr : citEn;\r\n      const styles = Object.keys(data);\r\n\r\n      select.innerHTML = '';\r\n      styles.forEach(st => {\r\n        const opt = document.createElement('option');\r\n        opt.value = st;\r\n        opt.textContent = st;\r\n        select.appendChild(opt);\r\n      });\r\n\r\n      box.dir = (lang === 'ar') ? 'rtl' : 'ltr';\r\n      box.style.textAlign = (lang === 'ar') ? 'right' : 'left';\r\n\r\n      if(styles.length){\r\n        select.value = styles[0];\r\n        box.value = data[styles[0]] || '';\r\n      } else {\r\n        box.value = '';\r\n      }\r\n    }\r\n\r\n    function openModal(){\r\n      parseData();\r\n      back.style.display = 'block';\r\n      modal.style.display = 'block';\r\n      document.body.style.overflow = 'hidden';\r\n      setLang('en');\r\n    }\r\n\r\n    function closeModal(){\r\n      back.style.display = 'none';\r\n      modal.style.display = 'none';\r\n      document.body.style.overflow = '';\r\n    }\r\n\r\n    function onStyleChange(){\r\n      const data = (lang === 'ar') ? citAr : citEn;\r\n      box.value = data[select.value] || '';\r\n    }\r\n\r\n    async function copyCitation(){\r\n      try{\r\n        await navigator.clipboard.writeText(box.value || '');\r\n      }catch(e){\r\n        box.focus(); box.select();\r\n        document.execCommand('copy');\r\n      }\r\n      const old = copyBtn.textContent;\r\n      copyBtn.textContent = (lang === 'ar') ? '\u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u062e \u2713' : 'Copied \u2713';\r\n      setTimeout(()=> copyBtn.textContent = old, 1200);\r\n    }\r\n\r\n    openBtn.addEventListener('click', openModal);\r\n    closeBtn.addEventListener('click', closeModal);\r\n    back.addEventListener('click', closeModal);\r\n\r\n    tabs.forEach(t => t.addEventListener('click', ()=> setLang(t.dataset.lang)));\r\n    select.addEventListener('change', onStyleChange);\r\n    copyBtn.addEventListener('click', copyCitation);\r\n\r\n    dlBtns.forEach(btn => {\r\n      btn.addEventListener('click', function(){\r\n        parseData();\r\n        const kind = btn.getAttribute('data-hnsj-dl'); \/\/ ris or bib\r\n        const langKey = lang || 'en';\r\n        const base = slugifyFileName(meta.doi || meta.title_en || meta.title_ar || 'citation');\r\n\r\n        if (kind === 'ris') {\r\n          downloadTextFile(base + '.ris', buildRIS(meta, langKey), 'application\/x-research-info-systems;charset=utf-8');\r\n        } else {\r\n          downloadTextFile(base + '.bib', buildBibTeX(meta, langKey), 'application\/x-bibtex;charset=utf-8');\r\n        }\r\n      });\r\n    });\r\n\r\n    document.addEventListener('keydown', (e)=>{\r\n      if(e.key === 'Escape' && modal.style.display === 'block') closeModal();\r\n    });\r\n  }\r\n\r\n  function bootHnsjCite(){\r\n    document.querySelectorAll('[data-hnsj-cite-root]').forEach(initHnsjCite);\r\n  }\r\n\r\n  \/\/ Run now if DOM already ready, otherwise wait\r\n  if (document.readyState === 'loading') {\r\n    document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', bootHnsjCite);\r\n  } else {\r\n    bootHnsjCite();\r\n  }\r\n\r\n  \/\/ Also handle late injected content (builders\/cache)\r\n  const obs = new MutationObserver(() => bootHnsjCite());\r\n  obs.observe(document.documentElement, { childList: true, subtree: true });\r\n\r\n})();\r\n<\/script>\r\n\r\n<div data-hnsj-cite-root id='hnsjCite_99894'>\r\n  <button type='button' class='hnsj-cite-btn' data-hnsj-open>\r\n    <span>\ud83d\udccc<\/span><span>Cite this article<\/span>\r\n  <\/button>\r\n\r\n  <div class='hnsj-modal-backdrop' data-hnsj-backdrop><\/div>\r\n\r\n  <div class='hnsj-modal' data-hnsj-modal data-meta='{&quot;authors_en&quot;:&quot;Dr. Abbas Abdelaziz Jumaa Mahmoud&quot;,&quot;authors_ar&quot;:&quot;\u062f. \u0639\u0628\u0627\u0633 \u0639\u0628\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u064a\u0632 \u062c\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0645\u062d\u0645\u0648\u062f&quot;,&quot;title_en&quot;:&quot;Building a mathematical model using time series in wheat production (1994-2013)&quot;,&quot;title_ar&quot;:&quot;\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d (1994-2013)&quot;,&quot;journal_en&quot;:&quot;Humanities &amp; Natural Sciences Journal&quot;,&quot;journal_ar&quot;:&quot;\u0645\u062c\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0633\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u064a\u0629&quot;,&quot;year&quot;:&quot;2025&quot;,&quot;volume&quot;:&quot;6&quot;,&quot;issue&quot;:&quot;5&quot;,&quot;doi&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/doi.org\\\/10.53796\\\/hnsj65\\\/15&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/www.hnjournal.net\\\/ar\\\/6-5-15\\\/&quot;,&quot;published_at&quot;:&quot;2025-05-01&quot;}' data-cit-en='{&quot;APA&quot;:&quot;Mahmoud A. A. J. (2025). Building a mathematical model using time series in wheat production (1994-2013). Humanities &amp; Natural Sciences Journal, 6(5). https:\\\/\\\/doi.org\\\/10.53796\\\/hnsj65\\\/15&quot;,&quot;Chicago&quot;:&quot;Mahmoud Abbas Abdulaziz Jumaa. 2025. \\&quot;Building a mathematical model using time series in wheat production (1994-2013).\\&quot; Humanities &amp; Natural Sciences Journal 6, no. 5. https:\\\/\\\/doi.org\\\/10.53796\\\/hnsj65\\\/15&quot;,&quot;Harvard&quot;:&quot;Mahmoud A. A. J. 2025. Building a mathematical model using time series in wheat production (1994-2013). Humanities &amp; Natural Sciences Journal. [Internet] 2025-05-01. [Cited 2026-05-15]. 6(5). Available at: https:\\\/\\\/www.hnjournal.net\\\/ar\\\/6-5-15\\\/. https:\\\/\\\/doi.org\\\/10.53796\\\/hnsj65\\\/15&quot;,&quot;Vancouver&quot;:&quot;Mahmoud A. A. J. Building a mathematical model using time series in wheat production (1994-2013). Humanities &amp; Natural Sciences Journal. [Internet]. 2025-05-01; 6(5). Available from: https:\\\/\\\/doi.org\\\/10.53796\\\/hnsj65\\\/15&quot;,&quot;IEEE&quot;:&quot;Mahmoud A. A. J, \\&quot;Building a mathematical model using time series in wheat production (1994-2013),\\&quot; Humanities &amp; Natural Sciences Journal, vol. 6, no. 5, 2025. https:\\\/\\\/doi.org\\\/10.53796\\\/hnsj65\\\/15&quot;,&quot;MLA&quot;:&quot;Mahmoud Abbas Abdulaziz Jumaa. \\&quot;Building a mathematical model using time series in wheat production (1994-2013).\\&quot; Humanities &amp; Natural Sciences Journal, vol. 6, no. 5, 2025-05-01, https:\\\/\\\/doi.org\\\/10.53796\\\/hnsj65\\\/15&quot;}' data-cit-ar='{&quot;APA&quot;:&quot;\u0645\u062d\u0645\u0648\u062f \u0639. \u0639. \u062c. (2025). \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d (1994-2013). \u0645\u062c\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0633\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u064a\u0629\u060c 6(5). https:\\\/\\\/doi.org\\\/10.53796\\\/hnsj65\\\/15&quot;,&quot;Chicago&quot;:&quot;\u0645\u062d\u0645\u0648\u062f \u0639\u0628\u0627\u0633 \u0639\u0628\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u064a\u0632 \u062c\u0645\u0639\u0629. 2025. \u00ab\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d (1994-2013)\u00bb. \u0645\u062c\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0633\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u064a\u0629\u060c 6(5). https:\\\/\\\/doi.org\\\/10.53796\\\/hnsj65\\\/15&quot;,&quot;Harvard&quot;:&quot;\u0645\u062d\u0645\u0648\u062f \u0639. \u0639. \u062c. \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d (1994-2013). \u0645\u062c\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0633\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u064a\u0629. [\u0627\u0646\u062a\u0631\u0646\u062a] 2025-05-01. [\u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0635\u0648\u0644 2026-05-15]. 6(5). \u0645\u062a\u0627\u062d \u0639\u0644\u0649: https:\\\/\\\/www.hnjournal.net\\\/ar\\\/6-5-15\\\/. https:\\\/\\\/doi.org\\\/10.53796\\\/hnsj65\\\/15&quot;,&quot;Vancouver&quot;:&quot;\u0645\u062d\u0645\u0648\u062f \u0639. \u0639. \u062c. \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d (1994-2013). \u0645\u062c\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0633\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u064a\u0629. [\u0627\u0646\u062a\u0631\u0646\u062a]. 2025-05-01\u061b 6(5). \u0645\u062a\u0627\u062d \u0645\u0646: https:\\\/\\\/doi.org\\\/10.53796\\\/hnsj65\\\/15&quot;,&quot;IEEE&quot;:&quot;\u0645\u062d\u0645\u0648\u062f \u0639. \u0639. \u062c. \u00ab\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d (1994-2013)\u00bb. \u0645\u062c\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0633\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0645 6\u060c \u0639 5\u060c 2025. https:\\\/\\\/doi.org\\\/10.53796\\\/hnsj65\\\/15&quot;,&quot;MLA&quot;:&quot;\u0645\u062d\u0645\u0648\u062f \u0639\u0628\u0627\u0633 \u0639\u0628\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u064a\u0632 \u062c\u0645\u0639\u0629. \u00ab\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d (1994-2013)\u00bb. \u0645\u062c\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0633\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0645 6\u060c \u0639 5\u060c 2025-05-01\u060c https:\\\/\\\/doi.org\\\/10.53796\\\/hnsj65\\\/15&quot;}'>\r\n    <div class='hnsj-modal-header'>\r\n    <div class='hnsj-modal-title'>Cite \/ \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0634\u0647\u0627\u062f<\/div>\r\n    <button class='hnsj-modal-close' type='button' data-hnsj-close aria-label='Close'>\u00d7<\/button>\r\n    <\/div>\r\n\r\n    <div class='hnsj-tabs'>\r\n      <button type='button' class='hnsj-tab active' data-lang='en'>English (Roman)<\/button>\r\n      <button type='button' class='hnsj-tab' data-lang='ar'>\u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0628\u064a\u0629<\/button>\r\n    <\/div>\r\n\r\n    <div class='hnsj-modal-body'>\r\n      <div class='hnsj-row'>\r\n        <button type='button' class='hnsj-copy' data-hnsj-copy>Copy<\/button>\r\n        <select class='hnsj-select' data-hnsj-style><\/select>\r\n        <\/div>\r\n\r\n      <textarea class='hnsj-textarea' data-hnsj-box readonly><\/textarea>\r\n\r\n      <div class='hnsj-actions'>\r\n        <div style='display:flex; gap:10px; flex-wrap:wrap;'>\r\n          <button type='button' class='hnsj-dl' data-hnsj-dl='ris'>Download RIS<\/button>\r\n          <button type='button' class='hnsj-dl' data-hnsj-dl='bib'>Download BibTeX<\/button>\r\n        <\/div>\r\n      <\/div>\r\n    <\/div>\r\n  <\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<p style='text-align:justify; direction:rtl;'><strong>\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062e\u0644\u0635: <\/strong> \u062a\u0647\u062f\u0641 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629(ARIMA)  \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0648\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0639\u062a\u0628\u0631 \u0625\u062d\u062f\u0649 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0628\u0648\u0643\u0633-\u062c\u0646\u0643\u0646\u0632 \u0644\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629. \u0627\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f\u062a \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0635\u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a. \u062a\u0648\u0635\u0644\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u0646 \u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0645\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 (1994-2013) \u0645 \u062a\u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0647 \u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0648\u0633\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u064a\u0648\u062c\u062f \u0628\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0639\u0627\u0645, \u0623\u064a \u0623\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u062a\u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0629, \u0648\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0648\u0641\u0642\u0627\u064b \u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a, \u0648\u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0628\u062f\u0623\u062a \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0627\u0642\u0635 \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u062b\u0645 \u0628\u062f\u0623\u062a \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0647\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639. \u0643\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u062a\u0648\u0635\u0644\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c (2,1,2) ARIMA \u0647\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062f \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u0641\u064a \u0625\u062c\u0631\u0627\u0621 \u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624\u0627\u062a \u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0645\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 (1994-2013)\u0645 \u062a\u0641\u064a\u062f \u0641\u064a \u0648\u0636\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0648\u0642\u062f \u0623\u0639\u0637\u0649 \u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624\u0627\u062a \u062c\u064a\u062f\u0647 \u0648\u0642\u0631\u064a\u0628\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0645\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 (1994-2013)\u0645.<\/p><p style='text-align:right;'><strong>\u0627\u0644\u0643\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0641\u062a\u0627\u062d\u064a\u0629: <\/strong> \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d.<\/p><p style='text-align:justify; direction:ltr;'><strong>Abstract: <\/strong> This study aims to apply autoregressive and moving average (ARIMA) models to forecast wheat production and arrive at an appropriate model for predicting future values, which is considered one of the Box-Jenkins time series models. This study relied on the use of the descriptive analytical and applied approach in the theoretical aspect. The study concluded that the wheat production series for the period (1994-2013) represents a seasonal time series with a general trend, i.e., it represents an unstable time series, according to the values of the autocorrelation coefficients. Therefore, the predictive values of the production series began to decrease and then its values began to increase. The study also concluded that the (2,1,2) ARIMA model is the appropriate model that can be relied upon in making wheat production forecasts for the period (1994-2013), which is useful in developing future plans. It provided good predictions that are close to the actual values of the wheat production series for the period (1994-2013).<\/p><p style='direction:ltr; text-align:left;'><strong>Keywords: <\/strong> Mathematical model, time series, wheat production.<\/p><\/div>\n\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>1 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0629:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u062a\u0646\u0627\u0648\u0644\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0634\u062a\u0642\u0627\u0642 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d \u0628\u0648\u0627\u0633\u0637\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0648\u0644\u0627\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0631\u0637\u0648\u0645 . \u0647\u062f\u0641\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u064a \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a \u0644\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0643\u0645 \u0628\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d \u0641\u064a \u0648\u0644\u0627\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0631\u0637\u0648\u0645 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0648\u0643\u0633 \u062c\u0646\u0643\u064a\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0646\u062f\u062a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0645\u062c \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u064a\u064f\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0647\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0626\u0645\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0638\u0627\u0647\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0648\u0636\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0627\u0632\u0645\u0629 \u0644\u0647\u0627. \u0646\u0628\u0639\u062a \u0623\u0647\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0625\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0639 \u0623\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0628 \u0639\u0644\u0645\u064a \u0645\u062a\u0642\u062f\u0645 \u0644\u0627\u0634\u062a\u0642\u0627\u0642 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a \u064a\u064f\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0647\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0626\u0645\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062c\u0647\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062e\u0637\u064a\u0637\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062e\u0631\u0649 \u0645\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0629 \u0645\u0627 \u062a\u0624\u0648\u0644 \u0625\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0638\u0627\u0647\u0631\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0628\u0648\u0632\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0631\u0627\u0639\u0629 \u0628\u0648\u0644\u0627\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0631\u0637\u0648\u0645.\u0625\u062a\u0628\u0639\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0635\u0641\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644\u064a \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0632\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 SPSS \u0641\u064a \u0648\u0635\u0641 \u0648\u0627\u0634\u062a\u0642\u0627\u0642 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a \u0645\u0644\u0627\u0626\u0645 \u0645\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f\u0627\u064b \u0639\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 . \u062a\u0648\u0635\u0644\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0636\u0648\u0621 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0639\u062f\u0629 \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0623\u0647\u0645\u0647\u0627 \u0623\u0646 \u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0647\u0648 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0647\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0648\u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645\u0647 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u062d\u062a\u0649 (2018) \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0642\u0627\u0639\u062f\u0629 \u0644\u0648\u0636\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0629.\u0623\u0648\u0635\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0647\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u0645\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u062a\u0648\u0641\u064a\u0631 \u0648\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0623\u062c\u0647\u0632\u0629 \u0648\u062a\u0642\u0646\u064a\u0627\u062a \u062d\u062f\u064a\u062b\u0629 \u0648\u062f\u0639\u0645\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0643\u0648\u0627\u062f\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0624\u0647\u0644\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0648\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631\u0647\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u0623\u062c\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0645\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0648\u062a\u0648\u0641\u064a\u0631 \u0633\u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062c\u0627\u062d \u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0625\u0636\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0625\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0648\u062d\u062f\u0627\u062a \u0628\u062d\u062b\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0643\u0648\u0627\u062f\u0631 \u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0627\u0647\u0631\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u0628\u062d\u0648\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u0644\u0647\u0627 \u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u064a\u062c\u0627\u0628\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d \u0625\u0636\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0625\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062a\u0631\u062d \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0645\u0646 \u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0647\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062e\u0637\u064a\u0637\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0623\u062b\u0628\u062a \u0641\u0627\u0639\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>2. \u0645\u0634\u0643\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u0645\u0646 \u0623\u0628\u0631\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0643\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0648\u0627\u062c\u0647 \u0645\u062a\u062e\u0630\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0647\u064a \u0643\u064a\u0641\u064a\u0647 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0644\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0645\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u062c\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u064a\u062a\u0639\u0644\u0642 \u0628\u0627\u062e\u062a\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0627\u0626\u0645 \u0644\u0638\u0627\u0647\u0631\u0647 \u0645\u0639\u064a\u0646\u0647 \u062b\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0647\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0644\u0644\u0627\u0639\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062f \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647\u0627 \u0648\u062a\u0646\u0637\u0628\u0642 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0643\u0644\u0647 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0647(1994-2013)\u0645 \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u062a\u0637\u0644\u0628 \u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0647 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0638\u0627\u0647\u0631\u0647 \u0648\u0627\u062e\u062a\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u064a\u0644\u0627\u0626\u0645 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0644\u0645\u0627 \u062a\u0635\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u0641\u064a \u0633\u0646\u0648\u0627\u062a \u0644\u0627\u062d\u0642\u0647.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>.3 \u0623\u0647\u062f\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u062a\u0647\u062f\u0641 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629(ARIMA) \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0648\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0639\u062a\u0628\u0631 \u0625\u062d\u062f\u0649 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0628\u0648\u0643\u0633-\u062c\u0646\u0643\u0646\u0632 \u0644\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>.4 \u0623\u0647\u0645\u064a\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u062a\u0623\u062a\u064a \u0627\u0647\u0645\u064a\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0625\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0639 \u0623\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0628 \u0639\u0644\u0645\u064a \u0645\u062a\u0642\u062f\u0645 \u0644\u0625\u0634\u062a\u0642\u0627\u0642 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0647\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0626\u0645\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d \u0645\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0629 \u0645\u0627 \u062a\u0624\u0648\u0644 \u0625\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0638\u0627\u0647\u0631\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>.5 \u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u0625\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0625\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0635\u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a \u0648\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0625\u0633\u062a\u062e\u0631\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0639\u0644\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629\u060c\u062a\u0645 \u0625\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0648\u0643\u0633 \u2013\u062c\u0646\u0643\u0646\u0632 \u0641\u064a \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0623\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0628\u0631\u0646\u0627\u0645\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0632\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0639\u064a\u0629(SPSS).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>6. \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>1- \u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u0634\u0645\u0644\u062a \u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u064a\u0646\u0627\u064a\u0631 1994\u0645 \u0625\u0644\u064a \u062f\u064a\u0633\u0645\u0628\u0631 2013\u0645 \u0643\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u062a\u0627\u0628\u0639 \u0645\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0643\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u063a\u0644 .<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u0628\u064a\u0646\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0639\u0627\u0645 2013\u0645 \u0643\u0633\u0646\u0629 \u0636\u0628\u0637 \u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0629 \u062c\u0648\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0635\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0629 .<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u0648\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0629 \u0645\u0627 \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u062a\u0639\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u062b\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645 \u0623\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0633\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0642\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b \u0628\u0648\u0635\u0641 \u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0634\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0639\u0646 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0633\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0639\u0646 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a (SPSS) \u062d\u064a\u062b \u062a\u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f &#8221; \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0628\u0639 &#8221; \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0633\u0646\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u063a\u0644 \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0638\u0647\u0631 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0623\u062f\u0646\u0627\u0647 .<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u062f\u0631: \u0625\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b \u0639\u0646 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642 \u0628\u0631\u0646\u0627\u0645\u062c SPSS))<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0631\u0642\u0645 (1) \u064a\u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0634\u0627\u0631 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 :<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u0646\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0638 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0633\u0645 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0628\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0639\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u0645\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0623\u0646 \u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 (\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d ) \u062a\u062a\u0632\u0627\u064a\u062f \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0634\u064a\u0631 \u0625\u0644\u064a \u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0633\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0647\u0627 \u0648\u062a\u0628\u0627\u064a\u0646\u0647\u0627 .<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u062f\u0631: \u0625\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b \u0639\u0646 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642 \u0628\u0631\u0646\u0627\u0645\u062c SPSS))<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0631\u0642\u0645 (2) \u064a\u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0634\u0627\u0631 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0627\u062e\u0630 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0648\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u064a : <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u0646\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0638 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0623\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0647 \u0625\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0633\u064a\u0637 \u0623\u0635\u0628\u062d \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a\u0627\u064b \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0628\u0627\u064a\u0646 \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0623\u062e\u0630 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0648\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u064a \u0623\u064a \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0629 \u0623\u0635\u0628\u062d\u062a \u0633\u0627\u0643\u0646\u0629 \u0648\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0629 \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0647\u0627 \u0648\u062a\u0628\u0627\u064a\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u060c \u0648\u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u0623\u0646 \u0646\u062c\u0631\u064a \u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624\u0627\u064b \u0645\u0648\u062b\u0648\u0642\u0627\u064b \u0628\u0647 \u060c \u0648\u0630\u0627\u0644\u0643 \u0644\u0623\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u0642\u0645\u0646\u0627 \u0628\u0623\u062e\u0630 \u0641\u0631\u0648\u0642 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 ( d=1 ) \u062d\u064a\u062b d \u062a\u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0648\u0642 .<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>2 -\u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0631\u0641 :<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u0625\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0647\u062f\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0629 \u0647\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0631\u0641 \u0639\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u062f\u0626\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0627\u0626\u0645 \u0644\u0648\u0635\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u062d\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u060c \u0648\u0642\u062f \u062a\u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0644\u0646\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0632\u0626\u064a \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0627\u0626\u0645 \u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0647\u0648 (2,1,2) \u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u062a\u0636\u062d \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0623\u0646 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0629 \u0645\u062d\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u062a\u062a\u0644\u0627\u0634\u064a \u0628\u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u062a\u0631\u062f\u062f\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u062c\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0644\u0628 \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u064a \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629.05 \u0623\u0645\u0627 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0632\u0626\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u062a\u0646\u0642\u0637\u0639 \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u0649 \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u064a \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629 .05\u0648\u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646\u062a\u0647 \u0628\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0622\u062e\u0631 \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0623\u0646\u0642\u0635\u0646\u0627 \u0645\u062b\u0644\u0627\u064b \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0644\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0644\u064a\u0635\u0628\u062d(2,2,1) \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u062b\u0645 \u0646\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646 \u0628\u064a\u0646\u0647\u0645 .<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\u0634\u0643\u0644 (3) \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0645\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 (1994-2013)\u0645 :<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\u0634\u0643\u0644 (4) \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0632\u0626\u064a\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0645\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 (1994-2013)\u0645 :<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>3- \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c :<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u064a\u062a\u0645 \u0641\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0629 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u062f\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u064a\u0627\u0631\u0647\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0647\u064a \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062cARIMA(2,1,2)\u0648 ARIMA(2,2,1)\u0648\u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u0631\u0646\u0627\u0645\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0632\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062c\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u062d\u0635\u0644\u0646\u0627 \u0639\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 :<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644 (1) \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c ARIMA(2,1,2)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>ARIMA Model Parameters<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>\u00a0<\/th>\n<th colspan=\"2\">\u00a0<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>Estimate<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>SE<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>T<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>Sig.<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th rowspan=\"5\">\n<p><strong>\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th rowspan=\"2\">\n<p>AR<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>Lag 1<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>-.152-<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>.422<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>.107-<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>.036<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th>\n<p>Lag 2<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>.432<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>.596<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>.725<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>.001<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th colspan=\"2\">\n<p>Difference<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>1<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\u00a0<\/th>\n<th>\u00a0<\/th>\n<th>\u00a0<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th rowspan=\"2\">\n<p>MA<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>Lag 1<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>33.372<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>.992<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>.014<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>.037<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Lag 2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>41.626<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>.697<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>.040<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>.045<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u062f\u0631: \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b \u0645\u0646 \u0628\u0631\u0646\u0627\u0645\u062c SPSS<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u0648\u064a\u062a\u0636\u062d \u0645\u0646 \u062a\u0648\u0641\u064a\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642 \u0623\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064alag1)) -.897= \u03c6 \u062a\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0627 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0631 \u0648\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0628\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646\u0629 p-value =.032 \u0628\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u064a \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629 .05,\u0648\u0623\u064a\u0636\u0627\u064b \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a(lag2) .152 &#8211; = \u03c6\u062a\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0627\u064b \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0631 \u0644\u0627\u0646 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 p-value =.036 \u0648\u0623\u064a\u0636\u0627\u064b \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u062a\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641\u0627 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0627\u064b \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0631, \u0648\u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c ARIMA(2.1.2) \u0645\u0644\u0627\u0626\u0645 \u0644\u0648\u0635\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u062d\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c ARIMA(2.1.1).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644 (2) \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c ARIMA(2,1, 1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>ARIMA Model Parameters<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>\u00a0<\/th>\n<th>\u00a0<\/th>\n<th>\u00a0<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>Estimate<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>SE<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>T<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>Sig.<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th rowspan=\"4\">\n<p><strong>\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th rowspan=\"2\">\n<p>AR<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>Lag 1<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>-.663-<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>1.893<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>-.350-<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>.731<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th>\n<p>Lag 2<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>.003<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>.619<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>.004<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>.997<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th colspan=\"2\">\n<p>Difference<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>1<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\u00a0<\/th>\n<th>\u00a0<\/th>\n<th>\u00a0<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>MA<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>Lag 1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-.452-<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>1.896<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-.238-<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>.815<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u062f\u0631: \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b \u0645\u0646 \u0628\u0631\u0646\u0627\u0645\u062c SPSS<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u0648\u064a\u062a\u0636\u062d \u0645\u0646 \u062a\u0648\u0641\u064a\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642 \u0623\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064alag1)) -7.807= \u03c6\u0644\u0627 \u062a\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0627 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0631 \u0648\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0628\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646\u0629 p-value =.580 \u0628\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u064a \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629 .05,\u0648\u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a (lag2) .663 &#8211; = \u03c6\u0644\u0627\u062a\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0627\u064b \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0631 \u0644\u0627\u0646 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 p-value =.731 \u0648\u0623\u064a\u0636\u0627\u064b \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0644\u0627 \u062a\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0631, \u0648\u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c ARIMA(2.1.2) \u0645\u0644\u0627\u0626\u0645 \u0644\u0648\u0635\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u062d\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c ARIMA(2.1.1).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644 (3) \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c ARIMA(0,1, 2) :<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th colspan=\"9\">\n<p><strong>ARIMA Model Parameters<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th>\u00a0<\/th>\n<th>\u00a0<\/th>\n<th>\u00a0<\/th>\n<th>\u00a0<\/th>\n<th>\u00a0<\/th>\n<th>\n<p><strong>Estimate<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p><strong>SE<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p><strong>T<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p><strong>Sig.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th rowspan=\"3\">\n<p>VAR00001-Model_1<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th rowspan=\"3\">\n<p>VAR00001<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th rowspan=\"3\">\n<p>No Transformation<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th colspan=\"2\">\n<p>Difference<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>1<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\u00a0<\/th>\n<th>\u00a0<\/th>\n<th>\u00a0<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th rowspan=\"2\">\n<p>MA<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>Lag 1<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>.873<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>.183<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>4.766<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>.000<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Lag 2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-.372-<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>.184<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-2.023-<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>.066<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629 (lag 1).873= \u03c6 \u0641\u0647\u064a \u062a\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0627 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0631 \u0648\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0628\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646\u0629 P.Value =.000 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629 .05 \u0648\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 (lag2) \u0641\u064a \u062a\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641 \u0623\u064a\u0636\u0627\u064b \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0631 \u0648\u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u062a\u0627\u0631 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u064a\u064a\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0642\u0629 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0642\u0644 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646\u0629\u064b \u0628\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u0647\u0646\u0627 \u064a\u062a\u0636\u062d \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u062f\u0626\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0627\u0626\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0647\u0648 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c ARIMA(2,1,2).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong> 4- \u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0634\u062e\u064a\u0635:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u062a\u0639\u062f \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0623\u0647\u0645 \u0645\u0631\u0627\u062d\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u062a\u0645 \u0641\u064a\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0642\u0642 \u0645\u0646 \u0645\u0644\u0627\u0626\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u062f\u0626\u064a,\u0648\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0628\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0648\u0627\u0642\u064a.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0631\u0642\u0645 (5) \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0632\u0626\u064a \u0644\u0628\u0648\u0627\u0642\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062cARIMA(2.1.0) \u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0645\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 (1994-2013)\u0645 :<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u064a\u062a\u0636\u062d \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0643\u0644\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u064a\u0646 \u0623\u0646 \u0623\u062e\u0637\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u062a\u0645\u062b\u0644 \u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u062d\u062a\u0629 \u0648\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0644\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u0638\u0645 \u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0632\u0626\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0628\u0648\u0627\u0642\u064a \u062a\u0642\u0639 \u0628\u0623\u0643\u0645\u0644\u0647\u0627 \u062f\u0627\u062e\u0644 \u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u062b\u0642\u0629 95%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>5- \u062a\u0648\u0641\u064a\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0628\u0627\u0634\u0631\u0629 :<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u0648\u0647\u0646\u0627 \u062a\u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0627\u0628\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u064a \u062a\u0633\u0627\u0624\u0644 \u0647\u0644 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u062a\u062d\u0633\u064a\u0646 \u0643\u0641\u0627\u0621\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0631\u0641 \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u0648\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0628\u0625\u0636\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u062c\u062f\u064a\u062f\u0629.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>3-5-1 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c 0).ARIMA (2.1<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u0648\u0642\u062f \u0648\u062c\u062f \u0623\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a (lag 1). 877)=\u03b8<sub>1<\/sub> ) \u062a\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0627 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0631, \u0648\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0628\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646\u0629 p-value =.000 \u0628\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u064a \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629 .05\u060c \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0646\u062c\u062f \u0623\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 (lag 2)877.= \u03c6 \u0644\u0627 \u062a\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0627 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0631 \u0648\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0628\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646\u0629 P.value =.089 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629 .05 \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u0647\u0646\u0627 \u064a\u062a\u0636\u062d \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u062f\u0626\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0627\u0626\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0648 \u0628\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0647\u0648 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c ARIMA(1,1,0). \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c ARIMA(2.1.0).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>6- \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0624:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u064a\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0647\u062f\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0623\u064a \u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u062a\u062e\u062a\u0635 \u0628\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629, \u0648\u0641\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0646\u0647\u062a\u0645 \u0628\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0645\u0646 \u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c\u0645\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644\u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d \u0648\u0628\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062a\u0647\u0627\u0621 \u0645\u0646 \u0645\u0631\u0627\u062d\u0644 \u062a\u0634\u062e\u064a\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c, \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0635\u0644 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0646\u0647 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c (2.1.2)\u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0648\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0644\u0627\u062c\u062a\u064a\u0627\u0632\u0647 \u0645\u0639\u0638\u0645 \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062d\u0635 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0634\u062e\u064a\u0635 \u0628\u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0639\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0627 \u0639\u0646 \u063a\u064a\u0631\u0647 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062e\u0631\u0649<a id=\"post-13226-_MON_1485509567\"><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\u064a\u0648\u0636\u062d \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644 (4) \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0645\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th colspan=\"7\">\n<p><strong>Forecast<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th colspan=\"2\">\n<p><strong>Model<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p><strong>2014<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p><strong>2015<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p><strong>2016<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p><strong>2017<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p><strong>2018<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th rowspan=\"3\">\n<p>k-Model_1<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>Forecast<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>327<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>349<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>354<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>360<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>357<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th>\n<p>UCL<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>715<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>785<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>819<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>832<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>835<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<th>\n<p>LCL<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>-60-<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>-87-<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>-111-<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>-113-<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<p>-121-<\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<\/table>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u0648\u0646\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0648\u0627\u062b\u0642\u064a\u0646 \u0628\u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 95% \u0623\u0646 \u062c\u0645\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0623 \u0628\u0647\u0627 \u062d\u062a\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645 2016 \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0645\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u062f\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062f\u0646\u0649 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0628\u0645\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0623\u0646 \u0625\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0648\u0642\u0648\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u062e\u0627\u0631\u062c \u062d\u062f\u0648\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0642\u0629 \u0647\u0648 (5%) \u0648\u0645\u0639 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0623 \u0628\u0647\u0627 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0642\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u062c\u062f \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0623 \u0628\u0647\u0627 \u0642\u0631\u064a\u0628\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0642\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u064a\u062f\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u062c\u064a\u062f .<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u0648\u0627\u0644\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a \u064a\u0648\u0636\u062d \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0631\u0642\u0645 (6) \u064a\u0648\u0636\u062d \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0629 (\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624) \u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0629 \u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0645\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0628\u0625\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0628\u0648\u0643\u0633-\u062c\u0646\u0643\u064a\u0646\u0632 \u0644\u063a\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u064d\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d \u062a\u0648\u0635\u0644\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u064a\u062a\u0623\u0645\u0644 \u0623\u0646 \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0628\u0645\u062b\u0627\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0628\u0646\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u064a\u0642\u0648\u0645 \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647\u0627 \u0639\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b\u064a\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0636\u0648\u0639 \u0648\u0647\u064a:<\/p>\n<ol style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0645\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 (1994-2013) \u0645 \u062a\u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0647 \u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0648\u0633\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u064a\u0648\u062c\u062f \u0628\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0639\u0627\u0645,\u0623\u064a \u0623\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u062a\u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0629, \u0648\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0648\u0641\u0642\u0627\u064b \u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a, \u0648\u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0628\u062f\u0623\u062a \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0627\u0642\u0635 \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u062b\u0645 \u0628\u062f\u0627\u062a \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0647\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639<\/li>\n<li>\u0625\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c (2,1,2)ARIMA \u0647\u0648\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0639\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062f \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u0641\u064a \u0625\u062c\u0631\u0627\u0621 \u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624\u0627\u062a \u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0645\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 (1994-2013)\u0645 \u062a\u0641\u064a\u062f \u0641\u064a \u0648\u0636\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0629,\u0648\u0642\u062f \u0623\u0639\u0637\u0649 \u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624\u0627\u062a \u062c\u064a\u062f\u0647 \u0648\u0642\u0631\u064a\u0628\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0645\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 (1994-2013)\u0645.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u062c\u0639 :<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1. \u0623\u0628\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u064a\u0631 \u064a\u062d\u0649 \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a\u0647 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u0633\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0627 \u0648\u0631\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0647( \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0623\u0635\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0631\u0627\u0626\u064a: \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c) \u0645\u062c\u0644\u0629 \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0643 \u0633\u0639\u0648\u062f 1993\u0645<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2. \u0625\u0628\u0631\u0627\u0647\u064a\u0645 \u0639\u0644\u064a \u0625\u0628\u0631\u0627\u0647\u064a\u0645 \u0645\u0628\u0627\u062f\u0626 \u0639\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0621 \u0648\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u0627\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0625\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0625\u0643\u0633\u06442007 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u064a\u0647 \u0634\u0627\u0631\u0639 \u0632\u0643\u0631\u064a\u0627 \u063a\u0646\u064a\u0645.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">3. \u062d\u0633\u064a\u0646 \u0646\u0627\u062c\u064a \u0639\u0627\u0631\u0641 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u0649 2010\u0645 \u062f\u0627\u0631 \u064a\u0627\u0641\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0634\u0631 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u062b\u064a\u0642 .<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">4. \u062d\u0633\u0646 \u0623\u0628\u0648 \u0635\u0627\u0644\u062d , \u0639\u062f\u0646\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0639\u0648\u0636 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0621 \u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0631\u062f\u0646\u064a 1990\u0645.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">5. \u062e\u0627\u0644\u062f \u0642\u0627\u0633\u0645 \u0633\u0645\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u0649 2007\u0645 \u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0643\u0631.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">6. \u062e\u0627\u0644\u062f \u0628\u0646 \u0633\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0636\u0639\u064a \u062a\u0642\u0646\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631(\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u0627\u062a \u062d\u0627\u0633\u0648\u0628\u064a\u0629) 2007\u0645 \u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u0648\u062b \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u0647\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">7. \u062e\u0627\u0644\u062f \u0632\u0647\u062f\u064a \u062e\u0648\u0627\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 2000\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0647\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0628\u064a \u0644\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0631\u064a\u0628 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u0648\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">8. \u0637\u0627\u0631\u0642 \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0634\u064a\u062f(2010\u0645) \u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u064a \u060c \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u0631\u0646\u0627\u0645\u062cviewse\u060c \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">9. \u0639\u0628\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0645\u064a\u062f \u0639\u0628\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062c\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0644\u062f\u0627\u0648\u064a (2004\u0645):\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0629, \u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0648\u0642 \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0634\u0631,\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0631\u062f\u0646.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">10. \u0639\u0628\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u062f\u0631 \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f(2005\u0645): \u0627\u0644\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062b \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a, \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0637\u0628\u0627\u0639\u0629, \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0633\u0643\u0646\u062f\u0631\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">11. \u0639\u062f\u0646\u0627\u0646 \u0647\u0627\u0634\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0631\u062f\u064a(1990\u0645): \u0623\u0633\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0637\u0631\u0642 \u0648\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u0627\u062a, \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0635\u0631\u0629, \u0645\u0637\u0628\u0639\u0629 \u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0643\u0645\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0635\u0631\u0629.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">12. \u0639\u0628\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0631\u062d\u0645\u0646 \u062d\u0627\u0645\u062f- \u0627\u062d\u0645\u062f \u062d\u0633\u064a\u0646(1992\u0645) \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u062c\u0647\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0628\u0648\u0643\u0633 \u062c\u0646\u0643\u0646\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0631\u064a\u0628 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0623\u0644\u064a\u0641 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0631\u0641\u0627\u0646\u062f\u064a\u0644 \u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u064a\u062e .<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">13. \u0639\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0648\u0646\u0629 (2005\u0645):\u0628\u062d\u0648\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629,\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0631\u062f\u0646.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">14. \u0639\u062f\u0646\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u0627\u062c\u062f \u0639\u0628\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0631\u062d\u0645\u0646 \u0628\u0631\u064a(2002\u0645) \u0637\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a, \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0643 \u0633\u0639\u0648\u062f.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">15. \u0645\u062d\u0645\u0648\u062f \u062d\u0633\u064a\u0646 \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0631\u0634\u064a\u062f(2003\u0645) \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0635\u0641\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062d\u064a\u0648\u064a \u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0635\u0641\u0627\u0621 \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0634\u0631\u060c\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0631\u062f\u0646.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">16.\u0645\u062d\u0645\u0648\u062f \u062e\u0627\u0644\u062f \u0639\u0643\u0627\u0634\u0647(2002\u0645) \u0625\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0646\u0638\u0627\u0645 Spss \u0641\u064a \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u0649 \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0632\u0647\u0631.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">17. \u0646\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0647 \u0639\u0628\u062f \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0643\u0631\u064a(2000\u0645) \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0645\u062d\u0627\u0643\u0627\u0629 \u0645\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645\u0647 \u0643\u0623\u062f\u0627\u0629 \u0645\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0631\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u062a\u062f\u0631\u064a\u0633 \u0645\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0641\u064a \u0628\u062d\u0648\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0627\u062a, \u0631\u0633\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0627\u062c\u0633\u062a\u064a\u0631 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0646\u0634\u0648\u0631\u0629, \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0628\u063a\u062f\u0627\u062f.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">18. A.H.studenmd and henry \u06451991.Cassidy ,UsingEconometrics A practical Guide ,2nd Ed ,Harper Collins publisher.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">19. Georg box and Gwilym Jenkins The Box-Jenkins1976.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>1 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0629: \u062a\u0646\u0627\u0648\u0644\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0634\u062a\u0642\u0627\u0642 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d \u0628\u0648\u0627\u0633\u0637\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0648\u0644\u0627\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0631\u0637\u0648\u0645 . \u0647\u062f\u0641\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u064a \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a \u0644\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0643\u0645 \u0628\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d \u0641\u064a \u0648\u0644\u0627\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0631\u0637\u0648\u0645 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a\u0629 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_joinchat":[],"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-13226","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/13226","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13226"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/13226\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13338,"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/13226\/revisions\/13338"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13226"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}