{"id":7647,"date":"2023-08-01T04:42:25","date_gmt":"2023-08-01T04:42:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/?page_id=7647"},"modified":"2023-08-01T04:42:29","modified_gmt":"2023-08-01T04:42:29","slug":"4-8-25","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/4-8-25\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 (\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 2000- 2022 \u0645)"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u062f. \u0645\u0639\u062a\u0632 \u0627\u062f\u0645 \u0639\u0628\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0631\u062d\u064a\u0645 \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f1<\/sup> \u062f. \u0633\u0644\u064a\u0645\u0627\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u064a\u0641\u0629 \u0645\u0631\u062f\u06332<\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n

1<\/sup> \u0623. \u0645\u0634\u0627\u0631\u0643 \u2013 \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u063a\u0631\u0628 \u0643\u0631\u062f\u0641\u0627\u0646 \u2013 \u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062c\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u2013 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646.<\/p>\n

\u0628\u0631\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0631\u0648\u0646\u064a: Mutazadamabdalraheemalseleical@gmail.com<\/a><\/p>\n

2<\/sup> \u0623. \u0645\u0633\u0627\u0639\u062f – \u062a\u062e\u0635\u0635 \u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f – \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u063a\u0631\u0628 \u0643\u0631\u062f\u0641\u0627\u0646 \u2013 \u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062c\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u2013 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646.<\/p>\n

\u0628\u0631\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0631\u0648\u0646\u064a: Wmordas122@gmail.comm<\/a><\/p>\n

HNSJ, 2023, 4(8); https:\/\/doi.org\/10.53796\/hnsj4825<\/p>\n

\u062a\u0646\u0632\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0641<\/a><\/p>\n

\u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0634\u0631: 01\/08\/2023\u0645 \u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0628\u0648\u0644: 25\/07\/2023\u0645<\/p>\n

\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062e\u0644\u0635 <\/strong><\/p>\n

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<\/a>Research title <\/strong><\/p>\n

the relationship between the exchange rate and monetary economic variables in Sudan (\u201can econometric study for the period 2000-2022 AD\u201d)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dr. Moataz Adam Abdel Rahim Mohamed 1<\/sup> Dr. Suleiman Khalifa Mardas 2<\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n

1 <\/sup>Associate Professor – University of West Kordofan – Faculty of Economic and Social Studies – Sudan.<\/p>\n

Email: Mutazadamabdalraheemalseleical@gmail.com<\/p>\n

2 <\/sup>Assistant Professor – Economics Major – University of West Kordofan – College of Economic and Social Studies – Sudan.<\/p>\n

Email: Wmordas122@gmail.comm<\/p>\n

HNSJ, 2023, 4(8); https:\/\/doi.org\/10.53796\/hnsj4825<\/p>\n

Published at 01\/08\/2023 Accepted at 25\/07\/2023 <\/strong><\/p>\n

Abstract <\/strong><\/p>\n

The study aimed at analyzing the relationship between the exchange rate and monetary variables (money supply , inflation ,interest rate , and current account ) and formulating standard model for analyzing the exchange rate policy in sudan in light of the severity of the financial problems in sudan . the study hypothesized that there is a statistically significant direct relationship between the exchange rate (money supply , inflation) during the period 2000-2022, also there is an inverse relationship between the exchange rate(the interest rate , and current account) in sudan during period 2000-2022. The study used the descriptive analytical approach in order to identify the nature of the relationship between the exchange rate and monetary variables in sudan , and secondary sources were used in this study , and the quantitative approach to build a standard model to measure the impact of the exchange rate and monetary variables (money supply , inflation ,interest rate , and current account) as this was done using the standard analysis program . the study concluded that there is a direct between the exchange rate(EX) and the money supply and this was confirmed by the study the value of the money supply coefficient is positive and its probability value is less than 0,05 and there fore the null hypothesis is accepted that there is a statistically significant relationship between the exchange rate and money supply its probability is less than 0.05 which means rejecting the null hypothesis and accepting the alternative hypothesis that there is a statistically significant relationship between the exchange rate and inflation .there is an inverse relationship between the current account (cac) and the exchange rate ,and this was confirmed by the study that the current account coefficient is negative ,but the probability value its greater than 0.05 thus accepting the null hypothesis the rejecting the alternative hypothesis that there is no statistically significant relationship between the current account and the exchange rate, and the problem may be in the data.<\/p>\n

Key Words: <\/strong>money supply, inflation, interest rate, current account.<\/p>\n

\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644 :<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0623\u0648\u0644\u0627 : \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0644\u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0623\u0647\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0643\u0628\u0631\u0649 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0648\u064a\u0644\u0639\u0628 \u062f\u0648\u0631\u0627\u064b \u0645\u062d\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0627\u064b \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0633\u0648\u0627\u0621 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0627\u062e\u0644\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0631\u062c\u064a \u060c \u0648\u064a\u0639\u062f \u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u064b \u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0627\u064b \u0634\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u062e\u0627\u0635\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u062c\u0627\u0646\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0647\u0648 \u0627\u062d\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0648\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0647\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0634\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a.<\/p>\n

\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0647\u064a \u0645\u0646 \u0623\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0639\u062f\u062f\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u062c\u0627\u0646\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062e\u0631\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0644\u062c\u0623 \u0625\u0644\u064a\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0647\u062f\u0641 \u0625\u062f\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0648\u0644\u0629 \u0648\u0625\u062f\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0637\u0646\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062d\u0645\u0627\u064a\u062a\u0647 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062f\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0627\u062e\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0631\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u060c \u0648\u062a\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f \u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u062f\u0649 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a \u0648\u0646\u0638\u0627\u0645 \u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0628\u0639 \u060c \u0644\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u062a\u0644\u0639\u0628 \u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0623\u062f\u0648\u0627\u0631\u0627\u064b \u0645\u062a\u0628\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u062e\u0627\u0635\u0629 \u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0648\u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0626\u062f\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a (\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0629 ) \u0648\u062a\u062d\u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0631\u0642\u0629 \u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0630\u0643\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u0623\u0646\u0641\u0627\u064b \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 2000-2022\u0645 .<\/p>\n

\u0645\u0634\u0643\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 : <\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0646\u0638\u0631\u0627\u064b \u0644\u0644\u0623\u0647\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u064a\u0643\u062a\u0633\u0628\u0647\u0627 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631\u0647 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0629 , \u0644\u0642\u062f \u062a\u0646\u0627\u0648\u0644\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0628\u062d\u0627\u062b \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0628\u062d\u062b\u062a \u0639\u0646 \u0645\u062f\u0649 \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637\u0647 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0623\u0634\u0627\u0631\u062a \u062a\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u064a\u0624\u062f\u064a \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0632\u064a\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0648\u0644\u0629 \u060c \u0648\u0644\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u062a\u062d\u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 2000-2022\u0645 \u0648\u064a\u062c\u0626 \u062a\u0633\u0627\u0624\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 :<\/p>\n

1-\u0645\u0627 \u0647\u064a \u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 2000-2022\u0645 \u061f<\/p>\n

2- \u0647\u0644 \u062a\u0648\u062c\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 2000-2022\u0645\u061f<\/p>\n

3- \u0645\u0627 \u0647\u0648 \u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 2000-2022\u0645 \u061f<\/strong><\/p>\n

4- <\/strong>\u0647\u0644 \u064a\u0624\u062b\u0631 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0626\u062f\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 2000-2022\u0645 \u061f<\/strong><\/p>\n

5- <\/strong>\u0647\u0644 \u062a\u0648\u062c\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 2000-2022\u0645\u061f<\/p>\n

\u0641\u0631\u0636\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 :<\/strong><\/p>\n

1-\u062a\u0648\u062c\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u062a\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0637\u0648\u064a\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062c\u0644 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0629 ( \u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f \u060c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u060c \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0626\u062f\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a ) \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 2000-2022\u0645.<\/p>\n

2- \u0647\u0646\u0627\u0643 \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0637\u0631\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0630\u0627\u062a \u062f\u0644\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 (\u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f \u060c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 )\u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 2000-2022\u0645.<\/p>\n

3- \u062a\u0648\u062c\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0639\u0643\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 (\u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0626\u062f\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a) \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 2000-2022\u0645.<\/p>\n

\u0623\u0647\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 : <\/strong><\/p>\n

\u062a\u0643\u0645\u0646 \u0623\u0647\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0623\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u062a\u0628\u0631\u0632 \u0623\u0647\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u062a\u0644\u0639\u0628\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0648\u0644\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u062a\u062d\u0633\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0634\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a , \u0648\u0625\u0628\u0631\u0627\u0632 \u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0629 ( \u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f \u060c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u060c \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0626\u062f\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a ) , \u0623\u0645\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u064a \u0641\u0647\u064a \u064a\u0639\u0637\u064a \u0646\u0638\u0631\u0629 \u062d\u0648\u0644 \u0623\u062b\u0631 \u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0639\u0644\u0649 ( \u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f \u060c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u060c \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0626\u062f\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a ) \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 , \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u062a\u0643\u0645\u0646 \u0623\u0647\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646 \u0623\u0647\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0636\u0648\u0639 \u0644\u0645\u062a\u062e\u0630\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 2000-2022\u0645.<\/p>\n

\u0623\u0647\u062f\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 : \u062a\u0647\u062f\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 :<\/strong><\/p>\n

1- \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u062a\u0639\u0631\u064a\u0641 \u0648\u0627\u0636\u062d \u0648\u062f\u0642\u064a\u0642 \u0644\u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0645\u062f\u0649 \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0647 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n

2- \u0625\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0636\u0648\u0621 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0648\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647\u0627\u062a\u0647 \u0648\u0623\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0637\u0647.<\/p>\n

3- \u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0648\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0629 ( \u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f \u060c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u060c \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0626\u062f\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a).<\/strong><\/p>\n

4-\u0635\u064a\u0627\u063a\u0629 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a \u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0638\u0644 \u062d\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0627\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 .<\/p>\n

\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 : <\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0629 :<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f (MS) \u060c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u060c \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0626\u062f\u0629 \u060c \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a<\/p>\n

\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0628\u0639<\/strong>:<\/p>\n

\u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 (ME) \u064a\u0639\u062a\u0628\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0623\u0647\u0645 \u0645\u0624\u0634\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a.<\/p>\n

\u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629: <\/strong> \u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0645\u062f\u0649 \u0635\u062d\u0629 \u0641\u0631\u0636\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0635\u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0643\u0645\u064a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062d\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a:<\/p>\n

\u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0635\u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0644\u0623\u0646\u0647 \u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u0647\u062c \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645\u0627\u064b \u0641\u064a \u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0638\u0648\u0627\u0647\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062c\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u0633\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0645\u0646 \u0623\u062c\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0631\u0641 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646, \u0648\u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0627\u062f\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 . \u0648\u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0645\u064a \u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a \u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633 \u0623\u062b\u0631 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0629 ( \u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f \u060c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u060c \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0626\u062f\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a)<\/strong>, \u062d\u064a\u062b \u062a\u0645 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u0631\u0646\u0627\u0645\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u062d\u062f\u0648\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 , \u0633\u064a\u062a\u0645 \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 (2000-2022\u0645 ).<\/p>\n

\u0623\u0633\u0628\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0645\u0648\u0636\u0648\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u064a\u0639\u0648\u062f \u0633\u0628\u0628 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0636\u0648\u0639 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u063a\u0628\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0631\u0641 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0648\u0645\u062f\u0649 \u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0629 ( \u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f \u060c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u060c \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0626\u062f\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a)<\/strong> \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 (2000-2022\u0645 ).<\/p>\n

\u0648\u0627\u0644\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0631\u063a\u0628\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0645 \u062a\u0648\u0635\u064a\u0627\u062a \u062a\u0633\u0627\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0643\u0648\u0645\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u062a\u062d\u0642\u064a\u0642 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u060c\u0644\u0645\u0627 \u0644\u0647 \u0645\u0646 \u0623\u0647\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u063a\u0629 \u0644\u0645\u062a\u062e\u0630\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0638\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0636\u0627\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u064a\u0639\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0645\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646.<\/p>\n

\u0647\u064a\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 :-<\/p>\n

\u062a\u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u062b\u0644\u0627\u062b\u0629 \u0645\u062d\u0627\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644 \u064a\u062d\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0637\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0637\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a \u0644\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0648\u064a\u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0645\u0646 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0644\u062b \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u062a\u062d\u062a\u0648\u064a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0635\u064a\u0627\u062a.<\/p>\n

\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0627\u064b : \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629 :<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. \u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u062f\u0627\u063a\u0631 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0635\u0648\u064a\u0639\u064a 2010\u0645(1)<\/sup><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

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    \u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062f\u06cc\u0646 \u0645\u062e\u062a\u0627\u06312012\u0645 (2)<\/sup> :<\/strong><\/p>\n

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    \u0623\u0648\u062c\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0634\u0627\u0628\u0647 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0627\u0641 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629 :<\/strong><\/p>\n

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    \u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    1-\u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0629 \u062a\u0648\u0635\u064a\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c (\u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0629 \u0648\u0636\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0648\u0636):<\/strong><\/p>\n

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    -\u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062fMS) ).<\/p>\n

    -\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645(Inf)<\/p>\n

    -\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a(CAC).<\/p>\n

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    \u0627-\u0627\u0644\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u064a\u0629 : \u064a\u0639\u0628\u0631 \u0639\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a :<\/p>\n

    \u0628-\u0627\u0644\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0646\u0635\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0648\u063a\u0631\u064a\u062b\u0645\u064a\u0629 :\u0648\u062a\u0623\u062e\u0630 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0648\u0631<\/p>\n

    LOG(<\/p>\n

    \u062c-\u0627\u0644\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0648\u063a\u0631\u064a\u062b\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u062a\u0623\u062e\u0630 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629<\/p>\n

    LOG(<\/p>\n

    3- \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0629:<\/strong> \u064a\u062a\u0639\u064a\u0646 \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0633\u0628\u0642\u0629 \u0639\u0646 \u0625\u0634\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0648\u062d\u062c\u0645 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u062d\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633 \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621\u0627\u064b \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0627\u062f\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a. \u0646\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u062a\u0628\u0639\u0627\u064b \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u0646:<\/p>\n

    – (\u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f ) \u0633\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0645\u0648\u062c\u0628 \u0644\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0636 \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0637\u0631\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f.<\/p>\n

    <\/p>\n

    -(\u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 ) \u0633\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0645\u0648\u062c\u0628 \u0644\u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0637\u0631\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645.<\/p>\n

    <\/p>\n

    ) -\u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a ) \u0633\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0633\u0627\u0644\u0628 \u0644\u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0639\u0643\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a .<\/p>\n

    <\/p>\n

    2- \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c :<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \u0648\u064a\u0646\u0637\u0648\u064a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0629 \u062b\u0644\u0627\u062b\u0629 \u062e\u0637\u0648\u0627\u062a \u0639\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0642\u0644:<\/p>\n

    -\u062a\u062c\u0645\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a (\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0648\u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u062c\u0629).<\/p>\n

    -\u062d\u0644 \u0645\u0634\u0627\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0645\u064a\u0639 .<\/p>\n

    -\u0627\u062e\u062a\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0627\u0626\u0645\u0629.<\/p>\n

    \u0623\u0648\u0644\u0627:\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0648\u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a:<\/strong><\/p>\n

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    1-\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0633\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0648\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 .<\/p>\n

    2- \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643.<\/p>\n

    3-\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0648\u0639\u0644\u0627\u062c \u0645\u0634\u0627\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633.<\/p>\n

    1- \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0633\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0648\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 :<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u063a\u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u064b \u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0648\u062c\u062f \u0628\u0647\u0627 \u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u064a\u0639\u0643\u0633 \u0638\u0631\u0648\u0641 \u0645\u0639\u064a\u0646\u0629 \u062a\u0624\u062b\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u062c\u0645\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0623\u0645\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0646\u0641\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0623\u0648 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062a\u0639\u0627\u0643\u0633\u0629 \u0648\u0628\u0645\u0639\u0646\u0649 \u0622\u062e\u0631 \u0641\u0627\u0646 \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0639\u0627\u0645 \u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0623\u062d\u062f \u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u064a\u0639\u0643\u0633 \u0635\u0641\u0629 \u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f\u0629 \u0648\u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0641\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u0646\u062d\u0635\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u063a\u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u064b \u0632\u0627\u0626\u0641\u0627\u064b \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0648\u0627\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u062a\u0641\u062a\u0642\u062f \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0633\u0627\u0643\u0646\u0629 \u0648\u0643\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0639\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624. \u0644\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0644\u0627 \u0628\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0643\u062a\u0634\u0627\u0641 \u0645\u062f\u0649 \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645 \u0641\u064a \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u062e\u0644\u0635 \u0645\u0646\u0647 \u0644\u0636\u0645\u0627\u0646 \u0635\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631.<\/p>\n

    \u0648\u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u064a \u0647\u0646\u0627\u0644\u0643 \u0639\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645\u0647\u0627 \u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0635\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 .<\/p>\n

    \u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644 (1) \u064a\u0648\u0636\u062d \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u062c\u0630\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u062d\u062f\u0629<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a<\/td>\n\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631<\/td>\n\u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629 5%<\/td>\n\u0646\u0648\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631<\/td>\n\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    EX<\/td>\n3.38<\/td>\n3.02<\/td>\nP.P<\/td>\n\u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    MS<\/td>\n9.05<\/td>\n3.01<\/td>\nP.P<\/td>\n\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    INF<\/td>\n3.74<\/td>\n3.01<\/td>\nP.P<\/td>\n\u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    CAC<\/td>\n5.04<\/td>\n3.01<\/td>\nP.P<\/td>\n\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

    \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u062f\u0631: \u0625\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u0646 \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644<\/p>\n

    \u064a\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0638 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644 (1) \u0623\u0646 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 P.P test statistic \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 EX \u0628\u0644\u063a\u062a( 3.38) \u0648\u0647\u064a \u0627\u0643\u0628\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629 5%(3.02) \u0648\u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u0646\u0631\u0641\u0636 \u0641\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0648\u0646\u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062f\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0626\u0644 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644 . \u0648\u0643\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644 \u0641\u064a \u0628\u0642\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0629 (\u060cCAC \u060c INF\u060c MS)\u062d\u064a\u062b \u0628\u0644\u063a\u062a \u0642\u064a\u0645P.P test statistic \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0644\u064a( 3.33)\u060c( 3.82)\u060c( 5.04) \u060c( 3.74)\u060c(9.05)\u060c\u0648\u0647\u064a \u062c\u0645\u064a\u0639\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0643\u0628\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629 5%( 3.01) \u0648\u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u0646\u0631\u0641\u0636 \u0641\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0648\u0646\u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062f\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0626\u0644 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0648\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644 \u0648\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0647.<\/p>\n

    2-\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u063a\u0645 \u0645\u0646 \u0623\u0646 \u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0645\u0634\u0643\u0644\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062f\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a \u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0623\u0646 \u062a\u0642\u0648\u062f \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0632\u0627\u0626\u0641\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0627 \u0623\u0646 (Engle-Granger 1987) \u0648\u062c\u062f \u0623\u0646 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0629 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0623\u0646 \u062a\u0642\u0648\u062f \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0632\u0627\u0626\u0641\u0629 \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0633\u0627\u0643\u0646\u0629 \u0648\u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0628\u064a\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f\u0629 ( \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0634\u064a\u062f \u060c \u0628\u062f\u0648\u0646 \u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e\u060c \u063527)11<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

    \u0648\u064a\u062a\u0645 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643 \u0628\u0627\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0627\u0636 \u0623\u0646 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0643\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a<\/p>\n

    EX=f(MS , INF ,CAC )<\/p>\n

    \u0648\u0628\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u062c\u0648\u0647\u0627\u0646\u0633\u0648\u0646 \u2013\u062c\u0648\u064a\u0644\u0644\u0632<\/p>\n

    \u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644 (2) \u064a\u0648\u0636\u062d \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643 \u0644\u062c\u0648\u0647\u0627\u0646\u0633\u0648\u0646<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a<\/td>\n\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u06295%<\/td>\n\u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0645\u0643\u0627\u0646L.R<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    EX<\/td>\n47.21<\/td>\n75.71<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    MS<\/td>\n29.68<\/td>\n30.25<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    INF<\/td>\n15.41<\/td>\n13.38<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    CAC<\/td>\n3.76<\/td>\n0.051<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

    \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u062f\u0631 : \u0625\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u0646 \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644<\/p>\n

    \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0633\u0648\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0645\u0643\u0627\u0646 ((LR \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0648\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0644\u062b \u062a\u0632\u064a\u062f \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u0638\u0631\u0629 \u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0648\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u062f\u0644\u0627\u0644\u0629 5%\u0648\u0645\u0646 \u062b\u0645 \u064a\u0631\u0641\u0636 \u0641\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0626\u0644 \u0628\u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0623\u064a \u0645\u062a\u062c\u0647\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0648\u0646\u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062f\u064a\u0644 \u0628\u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f (2) \u0645\u062a\u062c\u0647\u0627\u062a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0642\u0644 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643 . \u0648\u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0628\u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u062c\u0645\u064a\u0639 \u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0623\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0629 \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0623\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062c\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0648\u064a\u0644 \u0633\u0648\u0641 \u062a\u0633\u0644\u0643 \u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643 \u0645\u062a\u0634\u0627\u0628\u0647\u0627\u064b .<\/p>\n

    \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0634\u0641 \u0639\u0646 \u0645\u0634\u0643\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0639\u062f\u062f \u0647\u0646\u0627\u0644\u0643 \u0639\u062f\u0629 \u0637\u0631\u0642 \u0645\u0646 \u0623\u0647\u0645\u0647\u0627:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    1-\u0645\u0635\u0641\u0648\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0629 :<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u062a\u0645 \u0648\u0641\u0642\u0627\u064b \u0644\u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0641\u062d\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0641\u0648\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0642\u064a\u064a\u0645 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0633\u064a\u0637\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u063a\u0644\u0629 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0632\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0645\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0639\u0627\u064b \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0632\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0636\u0629 \u0641\u0627\u0646 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0645\u0624\u0634\u0631 \u0644\u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0645\u0634\u0643\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u064a \u0648\u0625\u0644\u0627 \u0641\u0644\u0627 ( \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0634\u064a\u062f \u0628\u062f\u0648\u0646 \u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u063542)12<\/sup> .<\/p>\n

    \u062a\u0643\u0648\u064a\u0646 \u0645\u0635\u0641\u0648\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0632\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0629<\/p>\n

    \u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644 (3) \u064a\u0648\u0636\u062d \u0645\u0635\u0641\u0648\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0632\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0629<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a<\/td>\nMS<\/td>\nINF<\/td>\nCAC<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    MS<\/td>\n1.00<\/td>\n0.958181921064<\/td>\n0.159855141541<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    INF<\/td>\n0.958181921064<\/td>\n1.00<\/td>\n0.226793066731<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    CAC<\/td>\n0.159855141541<\/td>\n0.226793066731<\/td>\n1.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

    \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u062f\u0631: \u0645\u0646 \u0625\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u0646 \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644<\/p>\n

    \u0648\u064a\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0638 \u0645\u0646 \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0647\u0646\u0627\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u062e\u0637\u064a \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u064a\u0646 \u0641\u0642\u0637 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0629 \u0647\u0645\u0627 \u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0628\u0644\u063a\u062a \u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 96% .<\/p>\n

    \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \u0648\u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0628\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0635\u063a\u0631\u0649 \u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631<\/p>\n

    LOG(<\/p>\n

    \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631<\/strong>:<\/p>\n

    LOG(EX(-1)) = 1.281035141 + 4.393740925e-07*MS + 0.005779209206*INF – 2.365060079e-05*CAC(-1) + [AR(1)=0.7588034848]<\/p>\n

    \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644 (4) \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c:<\/p>\n

    \u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644 (4) \u064a\u0648\u0636\u062d \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    1<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a<\/td>\n\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645<\/td>\n\u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0623 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u064a\u0627\u0631\u064a<\/td>\nT \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0633\u0648\u0628\u0629<\/td>\n\u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629pro(t-test statistic)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    EX<\/td>\n1.28<\/td>\n0.439<\/td>\n2.92<\/td>\n0.0106<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    MS<\/td>\n4.39<\/td>\n1.86<\/td>\n2.36<\/td>\n0.0321<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    INF<\/td>\n0.0058<\/td>\n0.002<\/td>\n2.64<\/td>\n0.0187<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    CAC<\/td>\n-2.37<\/td>\n1.73<\/td>\n-1.37<\/td>\n0.1907<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n\n\n\n
    Prob(Fstatistic)=0.000000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n\n\n\n\n\n
    AdjustedRsquared=0.9327<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n\n\n\n\n
    F-statistic=66.78715<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\nDurbin-Watson stat=1.68<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n\n\n\n
    Probability=0.028645<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\nObs*R-squared =18.61796<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

    \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u062f\u0631:\u0625\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u0646 \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644<\/p>\n

    3- \u062a\u0642\u064a\u064a\u0645 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \u0647\u0646\u0627\u0644\u0643 \u062b\u0644\u0627\u062b\u0629 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u064a\u064a\u0631 \u062a\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0641\u064a \u062a\u0642\u064a\u064a\u0645 \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a \u0648\u0647\u064a:<\/p>\n

    1- \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a 2- \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a3- \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a<\/p>\n

    \u0623\u0648\u0644\u0627: \u062a\u0642\u064a\u064a\u0645 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0648\u0641\u0642\u0627\u064b \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a:-<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \u0623-\u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0648\u062f \u0631\u0642\u0645 (1) \u064a\u0634\u062a\u0645\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0647\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631\u064a\u0629<\/p>\n

    \u0628-\u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0648\u062f \u0631\u0642\u0645(2) \u064a\u062d\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u062a\u0636\u062d \u0641\u064a\u0647 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a \u062a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a (1.28) \u0648\u0647\u064a \u0645\u0648\u062c\u0628\u0629. \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f (4.39) \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0634\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u062c\u0628\u0629 \u062a\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0637\u0631\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0627\u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f \u0648\u0647\u064a \u062a\u062a\u0641\u0642 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629. \u0648\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u064a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a (0.0058) \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u062c\u0628\u0629 \u062a\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0637\u0631\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0627\u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0648\u0623\u064a\u0636\u0627 \u062a\u062a\u0641\u0642 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a . \u0623\u0645\u0627 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a \u064a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a(2.37-) \u0625\u0634\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0644\u0628 \u062a\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0639\u0643\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0627 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a . \u0648\u0647\u064a \u062a\u062a\u0641\u0642 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a \u0623\u064a\u0636\u0627 .<\/p>\n

    \u062c-\u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0648\u062f \u0631\u0642\u0645 (3) \u064a\u0636\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062e\u0637\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u064a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0647\u064a \u0639\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0646\u062d\u0631\u0627\u0641 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0642\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0644\u0647\u0627\u060c\u0641\u0643\u0644\u0645\u0627 \u0635\u063a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u0631\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u064a\u0627\u0631\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u064a\u0646\u0629 \u0643\u0644\u0645\u0627 \u062f\u0644 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0639\u0644\u064a \u062f\u0642\u0629 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631\u0647\u0627<\/p>\n

    \u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0627\u064b: \u062a\u0642\u064a\u064a\u0645 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0648\u0641\u0642\u0627\u064b \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a:-<\/strong><\/p>\n

    1- \u0623\u0633\u0641\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644 \u0631\u0642\u0645(4) \u064a\u0638\u0647\u0631 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 F \u0648\u062a\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u0643\u0634\u0641 \u0639\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0643\u0643\u0644 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0628\u0644\u063a\u062a \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 F= 66.79 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0647\u0627 \u062a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064aProb(F-statistic)=0.000000 \u0648\u0647\u064a \u0627\u0642\u0644 \u0645\u0646 5% \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0631\u0641\u0636 \u0641\u0631\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0648\u0642\u0628\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062f\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0626\u0644 \u0628\u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0643\u0643\u0644 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0647 \u062f\u0644\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0629(cac\u060c inf \u060cMS) \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0628\u0639(Ex) .<\/p>\n

    2-\u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0648\u062f \u0631\u0642\u0645 (4) \u064a\u0638\u0647\u0631 \u0642\u064a\u0645 t\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0633\u0648\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u062d\u064a\u062b t \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0633\u0648\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a \u062a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a(1.28) \u0648\u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631\u064a\u0629 ( 4.39 )\u060c( 0.0058)\u060c(2.37- ) \u0641\u0647\u064a \u0639\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0631\u062a\u064a\u0628.<\/p>\n

    3-\u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0648\u062f \u0631\u0642\u0645 (5) \u064a\u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 Prob(T-Test Statistic) \u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u064a\u062a\u0645 \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644\u0647\u0627 \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0645\u0627 \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0627 \u0623\u0645 \u0644\u0627 \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u064a\u062a\u0636\u062d \u0623\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0628\u0644\u063a\u062a(0.010) \u0648\u0647\u064a \u0627\u0642\u0644 \u0645\u0646 0.05 \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0628\u0644\u063a\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f (0.032) \u0648\u0647\u064a \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0642\u0644 \u0645\u0646 0.05 \u0648\u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u064a\u0635\u0628\u062d \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a \u0644\u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0633\u0628\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f \u0648\u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0628\u0644\u063a\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 (0.0187) \u0648\u0647\u064a \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0642\u0644 \u0645\u0646 0.05 \u0648\u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u064a\u0635\u0628\u062d \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a \u0644\u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0633\u0628\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0627\u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0648\u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0623\u064a\u0636\u0627\u064b \u0628\u0644\u063a\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u064a\u0636\u0627\u064b \u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a (0.190) \u0648\u0647\u064a \u0627\u0642\u0644 \u0645\u06460.05 \u0648\u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u064a\u0635\u0628\u062d \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a. \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0623\u0646 \u062c\u0645\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0647\u0627 \u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a \u0639\u0644\u064a \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0645\u0627 \u0639\u062f\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a \u0648\u0642\u062f \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u0641\u064a \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a .<\/p>\n

    4- \u064a\u0638\u0647\u0631 \u0623\u0633\u0641\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644(4) \u0623\u064a\u0636\u0627\u064b \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644(R-2<\/sup>( \u0648\u064a\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644 \u064a\u062a\u0636\u062d \u0627\u0646\u0647 \u064a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a (0.93)=2<\/sup>R \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0629 (cac \u060c inf\u060cms)\u060c\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0637\u0627\u0639\u062a \u0623\u0646 \u062a\u0641\u0633\u0631 \u0628\u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 93 % \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0637\u0631\u0623 \u0639\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0628\u0639( Ex( \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u0642\u064a \u0642\u062f\u0631\u0647 7%\u064a\u0639\u0648\u062f \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a(u) (\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0636\u0645\u0646\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c)\u060c \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u064a\u062f\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062c\u0648\u062f\u0629 \u062a\u0648\u0641\u064a\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0648\u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u064a\u0639\u062a\u0628\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0642\u062f \u0627\u062c\u062a\u0627\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a.<\/p>\n

    \u062b\u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u064b : \u062a\u0642\u064a\u064a\u0645 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0648\u0641\u0642\u0627\u064b \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a:-<\/strong><\/p>\n

    – \u0623\u0633\u0641\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644(4) \u062a\u0638\u0647\u0631 \u0628\u0639\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0641\u0627\u0635\u064a\u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0644\u0623\u062a\u064a:<\/p>\n

    -\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u062f\u0631\u0628\u0646 \u0648\u0627\u0637\u0633\u0648\u0646 DW)( \u064a\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u0643\u0634\u0641 \u0639\u0646 \u0645\u0634\u0643\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0628\u0648\u0627\u0642\u064a \u0623\u0648 \u0623\u062e\u0637\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0648\u0647\u0648 \u064a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a (1.68) \u0648\u0628\u0627\u0644\u0631\u062c\u0648\u0639 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u062a\u0631\u0627\u0648\u062d \u0645\u0627 \u0628\u064a\u0646 (1.5\u0627\u0644\u064a2.5) \u064a\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0638 \u0623\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u062a\u0642\u062a\u0631\u0628 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u064a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0645\u0646 \u0645\u0634\u0643\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a .<\/p>\n

    -\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0648\u0627\u064a\u062a \u0648\u0647\u0648 \u064a\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u0643\u0634\u0641 \u0639\u0646 \u0645\u0634\u0643\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0628\u0627\u064a\u0646 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u0642\u0644 \u0645\u0627 \u0646\u062c\u062f\u0647\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u060c \u0641\u0645\u0646 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 OPs*R-squared=(18.61) \u0648\u0647\u064a \u0627\u0643\u0628\u0631 \u0645\u0646 5%\u0645\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u062f\u0639\u0648 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0631\u0641\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062f\u064a\u0644 \u0648\u0642\u0628\u0648\u0644 \u0641\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0626\u0644 \u0628\u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0645\u0634\u0643\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0627\u0641 \u062a\u0628\u0627\u064a\u0646 \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0627\u062c\u062a\u064a\u0627\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a.<\/p>\n

    \u0648\u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u064a\u0639\u062a\u0628\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0642\u062f \u0627\u062c\u062a\u0627\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u064a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0631\u062a\u064a\u0628 .<\/p>\n

    4-\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \u0648\u064a\u062a\u0636\u062d \u0645\u0646 \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0623\u0646 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 Theil Inequality coefficient \u062a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a(0.182 ) \u0648\u0647\u064a \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u062a\u0642\u062a\u0631\u0628 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0631 \u0648\u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0647\u0646\u0627\u0644\u0643 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629 \u0639\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u062c\u062f\u0627\u064b \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624.<\/p>\n

    \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0635\u064a\u0627\u062a<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \u062a\u0648\u0635\u0644\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 :<\/p>\n

    1- \u062a\u0648\u062c\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0637\u0631\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641(Ex)\u0648\u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0645\u0627 \u0623\u0643\u062f\u062a\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0623\u0646 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f \u0645\u0648\u062c\u0628 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0642\u0644 \u0645\u0646 0.05 \u0648\u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0631\u0641\u0636 \u0641\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0648\u0642\u0628\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062f\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0626\u0644 \u0628\u0627\u0646 \u0647\u0646\u0627\u0643 \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0630\u0627\u062a \u062f\u0644\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f.<\/p>\n

    2-\u062a\u0648\u062c\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0637\u0631\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0645\u0627 \u0623\u0643\u062f\u062a\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0625\u0646 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0645\u0648\u062c\u0628 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0647 \u0627\u0642\u0644 \u0645\u0646 0.05 \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0631\u0641\u0636 \u0641\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0648\u0642\u0628\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062f\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0626\u0644 \u0628\u0627\u0646 \u0647\u0646\u0627\u0644\u0643 \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0630\u0627\u062a \u062f\u0644\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645.<\/p>\n

    3-\u062a\u0648\u062c\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0639\u0643\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a(cac) \u0648\u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0645\u0627 \u0623\u0643\u062f\u062a\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0623\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a \u0633\u0627\u0644\u0628 \u0625\u0644\u0627 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0643\u0628\u0631 \u0645\u0646 0.05 \u0648\u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0642\u0628\u0648\u0644 \u0641\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0648\u0631\u0641\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062f\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0626\u0644 \u0628\u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0630\u0627\u062a \u062f\u0644\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a \u0648\u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641\u060c\u0648\u0642\u062f \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a.<\/p>\n

    5-\u062a\u0624\u0643\u062f \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u062a\u0624\u062b\u0631 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0623\u0646 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u062a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a 0.93 \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0629 \u062a\u0624\u062b\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0628\u0639 \u0628\u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 93% \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u0642\u064a \u0642\u062f\u0631\u0647 7% \u0639\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u062b\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0636\u0645\u0646\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c.<\/p>\n

    2-\u062a\u0648\u0635\u0644\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0623\u0646 \u062c\u0645\u064a\u0639 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0645\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f\u0629 \u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0627\u064b \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629 5%\u0648\u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0644\u0647\u0627 \u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0647\u0645 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0645\u0627 \u0639\u062f\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 .<\/p>\n

    \u062a\u0648\u0635\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 :<\/strong><\/p>\n

    1- \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0648\u062c\u0630\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0627\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646.<\/p>\n

    2-\u062a\u0648\u0635\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0628\u0639\u0645\u0644 \u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0622\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u062f\u0644\u0627\u064b \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f\u0629 \u0644\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0624\u062b\u0631 \u0648\u062a\u062a\u0623\u062b\u0631 \u0628\u0628\u0639\u0636\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0639\u0636 \u0644\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0622\u0646\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n

    3-\u062a\u0648\u0635\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0645\u0627 \u0633\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0644\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0638\u0647\u0631 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629 \u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 .<\/p>\n

    \u0642\u0627\u0626\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u062c\u0639 :<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \u062f\u0627\u063a\u0631 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0635\u0648\u064a\u0639\u064a 2010\u0645 \u060c IUG Journal of Economics and Business (Islamic University of Gaza) \/ CC BY 4.0.<\/p>\n

    \u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062f\u06cc\u0646 \u0645\u062e\u062a\u0627\u06312012\u0645 \u060c \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0628\u0628\u06cc\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u06cc\u0646\u0627\u0645\u06cc\u0643\u06cc\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0629 \u0628\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u06cc\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0648\u062f \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0646\u0634\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0637\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0627\u062f\u06cc\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0644\u06cc\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0629 ) \u060cJurnalPengurusan\u0627\u0644\u0639\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u062f\u062f36 (2012 \u0635 135-148.<\/p>\n

    \u0633\u06cc\u062f \u0639\u06cc\u0633\u064a \u060c \u0623\u0633\u0648\u0627\u0642 \u0648\u0623\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062c\u0646\u0628\u064a \u060c \u0645\u0624\u0633\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0639\u0648\u062f\u064a \u060c \u0628\u062f\u0648\u0646 \u062a\u0627\u0631\u06cc\u062e \u060c \u0635 .7.<\/p>\n

    \u0645\u0648\u0631\u062f\u062e\u0627\u064a \u0643\u0631\u06cc\u0627\u0646\u06cc\u0646 – 2007\u0645\u060c \u062a\u0639\u0631\u06cc\u0628 \u062f: \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0627\u0628\u0631\u0627\u06be\u06cc\u0645 \u0645\u0646\u0635\u0648\u0631 \u0648 \u062f: \u0639\u0644\u064a \u0645\u0633\u0639\u0648\u062f \u0639\u0637\u06cc\u0629\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0648\u0644\u064a \u0645\u062f\u062e\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u06cc\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u06cc\u062e \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0634\u0631 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u06be\u0631\u0629\u060c \u0635.26.<\/p>\n

    \u0639\u0628\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0639\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u062f \u0639\u0644\u064a \u060c \u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u060c \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u060c \u0645\u0637\u0628\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0646\u064a \u060c \u0628\u063a\u062f\u0627\u062f \u060c \u060c 1971\u0635 \u0635. 94-.95.<\/p>\n

    \u0645\u0627\u064a\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0628\u062f\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0646 , \u062a\u0631\u062c\u0645\u0629 \u0648\u062a\u0639\u0631\u064a\u0628 \u0627\u0645\u064a\u0644 \u0628\u062f\u064a\u0639 \u064a\u0639\u0642\u0648\u0628 , \u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u064a\u062e , \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0639\u0648\u062f\u064a\u0629 , 1988, \u0635 .<\/p>\n

    \u062a\u0642\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0631 \u0628\u0646\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 2000-2022\u0645 .<\/p>\n

    \u0623\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0639\u0628\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0647 \u0625\u0628\u0631\u0627\u0647\u064a\u0645\u060c \u0645\u062d\u062f\u062f\u0627\u062a \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0646\u064a\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646\u064a \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u0646 1978 \u0625\u0644\u0649 2017\u060c \u0648\u0631\u0642\u0629 \u0639\u0645\u0644 , \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062a\u062f\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a \u0648\u0632\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0644\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u064a \u060c 2019 \u060c \u06354.<\/p>\n

    \u062a\u0642\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0631 \u0628\u0646\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 2000-2022\u0645 .<\/p>\n

    \u062a\u0642\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0631 \u0628\u0646\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 2000-2022\u0645 .<\/p>\n

    \u0639\u0628\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u062f\u0631 \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0639\u0628\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u062f\u0631 \u0639\u0637\u064a\u0629 (2000\u0645)\u060c \u0627\u0644\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062b \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u060c\u0645\u0635\u0631\u060c\u0627\u0644\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u060c\u0635 \u0635 15-16 .<\/p>\n

    \u0637\u0627\u0631\u0642 \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0634\u064a\u062f \u060c \u0648\u0633\u0627\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u062d\u0645\u0648\u062f\u060c\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u064a \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u0631\u0646\u0627\u0645\u062c E-views \u060c \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0631\u0637\u0648\u0645\u060c\u0628\u062f\u0648\u0646 \u0646\u0627\u0634\u0631\u060c\u0635 27.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    \u062f. \u0645\u0639\u062a\u0632 \u0627\u062f\u0645 \u0639\u0628\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0631\u062d\u064a\u0645 \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f1 \u062f. \u0633\u0644\u064a\u0645\u0627\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u064a\u0641\u0629 \u0645\u0631\u062f\u06332 1 \u0623. \u0645\u0634\u0627\u0631\u0643 \u2013 \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u063a\u0631\u0628 \u0643\u0631\u062f\u0641\u0627\u0646 \u2013 \u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062c\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u2013 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646. \u0628\u0631\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0631\u0648\u0646\u064a: Mutazadamabdalraheemalseleical@gmail.com 2 \u0623. \u0645\u0633\u0627\u0639\u062f […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_joinchat":[],"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-7647","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/7647","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7647"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/7647\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7660,"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/7647\/revisions\/7660"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7647"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}