{"id":7578,"date":"2023-08-01T04:25:01","date_gmt":"2023-08-01T04:25:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/?page_id=7578"},"modified":"2023-08-01T04:25:05","modified_gmt":"2023-08-01T04:25:05","slug":"4-8-17","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/4-8-17\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0631\u062f\u062f\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641\u0629 MIDAS \u0641\u064a \u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0623\u062b\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062a \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0646\u0627\u0638\u0631\u0629 \u0644\u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0645\u0647\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u064a\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0641\u0648\u0627\u0632 \u062d\u0633\u0646 \u0627\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0633\u0645\u064a1<\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n

1<\/sup> \u0623\u0633\u062a\u0627\u0630 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0627\u0639\u062f\u060c \u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062f\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629\u060c \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0639\u062f\u0646\u060c \u0627\u0644\u064a\u0645\u0646.<\/p>\n

\u0628\u0631\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0631\u0648\u0646\u064a: fawazkassim20@gmail.com<\/p>\n

HNSJ, 2023, 4(8); https:\/\/doi.org\/10.53796\/hnsj4817<\/p>\n

\u062a\u0646\u0632\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0641<\/a><\/p>\n

\u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0634\u0631: 01\/08\/2023\u0645 \u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0628\u0648\u0644: 25\/07\/2023\u0645<\/p>\n

\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062e\u0644\u0635 <\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0647\u062f\u0641\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c MIDAS \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0630\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u062b\u0631 \u062a\u0642\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0623\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0648\u0644\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0628\u0648\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0647\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0645\u0647\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u064a\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0647\u062f\u0641\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c MIDAS \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u062f\u0648\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0631\u062c\u064a\u062d Step)\u060c PDL Almon lags\u060c Exponential Almon lags\u060c Beta lags\u060c U-MIDAS)\u060c \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u0647 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 (2017-2022\u0645)\u060c \u0648\u0642\u062f \u062a\u0645 \u062a\u0645\u062b\u064a\u0644 \u062a\u0642\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0623\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0628\u0648\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u062d\u062c\u0645 (312) \u0645\u0634\u0627\u0647\u062f\u0629\u060c \u0628\u064a\u0646\u0645\u0627 \u062a\u0645\u062b\u0644\u062a \u062a\u0642\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0647\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u062d\u062c\u0645(72) \u0645\u0634\u0627\u0647\u062f\u0629\u060c \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0635\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0646 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c MIDAS \u0623\u0638\u0647\u0631\u062a \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631\u0627 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0627 \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0630\u062c\u0629 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0628\u0648\u0639\u064a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0647\u0631\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0641\u0627\u0636\u0644\u0629 \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c MIDAS BETA LAGS \u0627\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629 \u0644\u0627\u0645\u062a\u0644\u0627\u0643\u0647 \u0627\u0642\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u064a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a.<\/p>\n

\u0627\u0644\u0643\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0641\u062a\u0627\u062d\u064a\u0629: <\/strong>\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c MIDAS\u060c \u0623\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641\u060c \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Research title <\/strong><\/p>\n

Using the MIDAS different time frequencies model to study the effect of asymmetric fluctuations in the exchange rate on inflation rates in the Republic of Yemen.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fawaz Hassan Ahmed Al Qasimi1<\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n

1<\/sup> Assistant Professor of Statistics, College of Administrative Sciences, University of Aden, Yemen.<\/p>\n

Email: fawazkassim20@gmail.com<\/p>\n

HNSJ, 2023, 4(8); https:\/\/doi.org\/10.53796\/hnsj4817<\/p>\n

Published at 01\/08\/2023 Accepted at 25\/07\/2023 <\/strong><\/p>\n

Abstract <\/strong><\/p>\n

The study aimed to use MIDAS models to model the impact of weekly dollar exchange rate fluctuations on monthly inflation rates in the Republic of Yemen. By applying it to the data during the period (2017-2022), the weekly exchange rate fluctuations were represented by (312) observations, while the monthly inflation rate fluctuations were represented by (72) observations. Through the study and analysis, it was concluded that the MIDAS models showed an estimate Significantly, to model the weekly exchange rate on the monthly inflation rates, and through differentiation tests, the MIDAS BETA LAGS model was the best estimated model because it had the lowest values of the information criteria.<\/p>\n

Key Words: <\/strong>MIDAS model, exchange rates, inflation rates.<\/p>\n

\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0629<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0637\u0629 (MIDAS) \u0644\u062a\u0644\u0627\u0626\u0645 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u063a\u0631\u0627\u0636\u060c \u0648\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0648\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0623\u062b\u0628\u062a\u062a \u0623\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u062a\u062a\u0641\u0648\u0642 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0633\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0630\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0645\u0639 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0630\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0631\u062f\u062f\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641\u0629.<\/p>\n

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\u0627\u0648\u0644\u0627: \u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
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