{"id":5289,"date":"2023-01-02T02:34:19","date_gmt":"2023-01-02T02:34:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/?page_id=5289"},"modified":"2023-01-02T02:34:24","modified_gmt":"2023-01-02T02:34:24","slug":"4-1-2","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/4-1-2\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0628\u064a\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0628\u0634\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0643\u0648\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0647\u0646\u062f\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 ARIMA \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0633\u062d\u0627\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0648\u0631\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644\u064a\u0629 Oracle Analytic Cloud (OAC)<\/strong>"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u062a\u0636\u0649 \u0645\u062d\u062c\u0648\u0628 \u062d\u0633\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u062f \u0625\u0633\u0645\u0627\u0639\u064a\u06441<\/sup> \u0634\u0627\u0630\u0644\u064a \u0635\u062f\u064a\u0642 \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0623\u062d\u0645\u062f2<\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n

1<\/sup> \u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0633\u0648\u0628 \u0648\u062a\u0642\u0627\u0646\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a\u060c \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u064a\u0644\u064a\u0646\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646. \u0628\u0631\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0631\u0648\u0646\u064a: Hopy508@gmail.com<\/a><\/p>\n

2<\/sup> \u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0633\u0648\u0628 \u0648\u062a\u0642\u0627\u0646\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a\u060c \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u064a\u0644\u064a\u0646\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646. \u0628\u0631\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0631\u0648\u0646\u064a: shazali_siddig.@neelain.edu.sd<\/p>\n

HNSJ, 2023, 4(1); https:\/\/doi.org\/10.53796\/hnsj412<\/p>\n

\u062a\u0646\u0632\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0641
\n<\/a><\/p>\n

\u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0634\u0631: 01\/01\/2023\u0645 \u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0628\u0648\u0644: 02\/12\/2022\u0645<\/p>\n

\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062e\u0644\u0635 <\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u0648\u0627\u0644\u0648\u0642\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0637\u0644\u0648\u0628 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u064a\u0633\u062a\u062d\u064a\u0644 \u062a\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f\u0647\u0627 \u0648\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633\u0647\u0627. \u0641\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0631\u0642\u0629 \u060c \u0633\u0646\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c ARIMA \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u064a\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629. \u062a\u064f\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0628\u064a\u0639\u0627\u062a \u062c\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0644\u0645\u062f\u0629 \u062e\u0645\u0633 \u0633\u0646\u0648\u0627\u062a (2018-2022) \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u0634\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0643\u0648\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0647\u0646\u062f\u0633\u064a\u0629 (\u0625\u062d\u062f\u0649 \u0634\u0631\u0643\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u062d\u062c\u0627\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646) \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u064f\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0644\u062a\u0635\u0646\u064a\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0627\u0621 \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0631\u0633\u0645 \u0645\u062e\u0637\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0631\u0633\u0648\u0645 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641\u0629. \u062a\u0638\u0647\u0631 \u0646\u062a\u064a\u062c\u0629 \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c ARIMA \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0623\u062f\u0627\u0629 OAC (Oracle Analytic cloud) \u0645\u0627 \u064a\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0623 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u064a\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0644\u0644\u0623\u064a\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0633\u0639\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n

\u0627\u0644\u0643\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0641\u062a\u0627\u062d\u064a\u0629: <\/strong>Sales Prediction, ARIMA, Time Series<\/p>\n

<\/a>Research title <\/strong><\/p>\n

Building a sales forecast model in Coldair Engineering by applying the ARIMA time series model using Oracle Analytic Cloud (OAC)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Mohammed al-Murtada Mahjoub Hussein al-Sayyid Ismail 1 <\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n

Shazly Siddiq Mohammed Ahmad 2<\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n

1<\/sup> College of Computer Science and Information Technology, Al-Neelain University, Sudan.<\/p>\n

Email: Hopy508@gmail.com<\/p>\n

2<\/sup> Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, Al-Neelain University, Sudan.<\/p>\n

Email: shazali_siddig.@neelain.edu.sd<\/p>\n

HNSJ, 2023, 4(1); https:\/\/doi.org\/10.53796\/hnsj412<\/p>\n

Published at 01\/01\/2023 Accepted at 02\/12\/2022 <\/strong><\/p>\n

Abstract <\/strong><\/p>\n

Sales forecasting is a most important application in industries and has been one of the most scientifically and technologically challenging problems around the world. One approach of prediction is to spot patterns in the past, when it is known in advance what followed them and verify it on more recent data. If a pattern is followed by the same outcome frequently enough, it can be concluded that it is a genuine relationship. Because this approach does not assume any special knowledge or form of the regularities, the method is quite general applicable to other series not just climate. Sales prediction phenomena have many parameters like Number of sales, production, Consumed cost and Time required that are impossible to enumerate and measure. In this paper, we are going to use the ARIMA model for predicting the number of sales for a Time series data. The dataset tractor sales data for a period of five years (2018-2022) obtained from the Coldair Engineering Company (One of Haggar group companies in the Sudan) are used from which use to classify the performance by drawing various scattered plots and graphs. The result of the ARIMA results using OAC tool (Oracle Analytic cloud) shows that which predicts better for the sales prediction of the next following 90 days.<\/p>\n

Key Words: <\/strong>Sales Prediction, ARIMA, Time Series<\/p>\n

\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0629<\/h1>\n

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\u064a\u062a\u0645 \u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642 \u062a\u0642\u0646\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641\u0629 \u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0648\u0634\u0628\u0643\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0638\u0627\u0626\u0641 \u0645\u062a\u0639\u062f\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u0642\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0634\u0639\u0627\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u063a\u0644\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0648\u064a \u0645\u062b\u0644 \u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0631\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0648\u0633\u0631\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u062d \u0648\u0647\u0637\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0637\u0627\u0631 \u0648\u062a\u0644\u0648\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0631\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0645\u0627 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0630\u0644\u0643. \u0648\u0642\u062f \u0648\u062c\u062f \u0623\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u063a\u0644 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u062d\u0643\u0645 \u0646\u0638\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u063a\u0644\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0648\u064a \u0647\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a\u0646 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646\u0647\u0645 \u0641\u0647\u0645 \u062f\u064a\u0646\u0627\u0645\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u063a\u0644\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0648\u064a \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644. \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0636\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u064a\u0628 \u060c \u062a\u0645 \u062a\u0637\u0648\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0637\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0628\u0643\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0635\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0635\u0637\u0646\u0627\u0639\u064a\u0629 (ANNs). \u062a\u0645\u062a\u0644\u0643 \u062a\u0642\u0646\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0628\u0643\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0635\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0643\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0642\u062f\u0629 \u0648\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0646\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0644\u064a\u062f\u064a\u0629. \u0648\u0645\u0639 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u060c \u0641\u0625\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0646\u0638\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0645 \u062a\u0637\u0648\u064a\u0631\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0628\u0643\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0635\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0639\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0645\u0646 \u0639\u064a\u0648\u0628 \u0645\u0639\u064a\u0646\u0629 \u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u062f\u0648\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0646\u064a\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u060c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0641\u0648\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628 \u060c \u0625\u0644\u062e[7].<\/p>\n

\u0641\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b \u060c \u0633\u0646\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c ARIMA \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0645\u0628\u064a\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0646\u062a\u062c\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0647\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a Coldair Engineering Manufacture \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 OAC (Oracle Analytic cloud). \u064a\u0638\u0647\u0631 \u0623\u062f\u0627\u0621 ARIMA \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u062d\u062f\u062f\u0629. \u0644\u0642\u062f \u062c\u0645\u0639\u0646\u0627 \u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0646 \u0623\u0628\u0631\u064a\u0644 2018 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0646\u0648\u0641\u0645\u0628\u0631 – \u0647\u0646\u0627 \u060c \u0627\u062a\u062e\u0630\u0646\u0627 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 “\u0639\u062f\u062f \u0645\u0646\u062a\u062c\u0627\u062a FG \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u0627\u0639\u0629” \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0633\u0646\u0642\u0648\u0645 \u0628\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642 ARIMA \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u064a\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0644\u0645\u062f\u0629 90 \u064a\u0648\u0645\u064b\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629[12].<\/p>\n

\u064a\u064f\u0637\u0644\u0642 \u0639\u0644\u0649 ARIMA (p \u060c d \u060c q) \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u200b\u200b\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0636\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a. \u0648\u064a\u062a\u0636\u0645\u0646 \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u200b\u200b\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643 (MA) \u060c \u0648\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a (AR) \u060c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u200b\u200b\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0648\u0641\u0642\u064b\u0627 \u0644\u0645\u0627 \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0635\u0644\u064a \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u064b\u0627 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062c\u0632\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 (ARMA) \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0647\u062c\u064a\u0646\u0629 \u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u200b\u200b\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a (ARIMA).<\/p>\n

\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u200b\u200b\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643 (MA (q))<\/p>\n

\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a (AR (p))<\/p>\n

\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u200b\u200b\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a (ARMA (p\u060c q))<\/p>\n

\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u200b\u200b\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a (ARIMA (p\u060c d\u060c q))<\/p>\n

AR \u0647\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0626\u064a \u060c p \u0647\u0648 \u0645\u0635\u0637\u0644\u062d \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u061b MA \u0647\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u200b\u200b\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643 \u060c q \u0647\u0648 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0634\u0631\u0648\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u200b\u200b\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643 \u060c \u0648 d \u0647\u0648 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0627\u0641\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u062d\u062f\u062b \u0639\u0646\u062f\u0645\u0627 \u062a\u0635\u0628\u062d \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a\u0629.[1]<\/p>\n

*\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u062e\u0637\u0648\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624<\/p>\n

1. \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0635\u0648\u062f \u061b<\/p>\n

2. \u0642\u0645 \u0628\u0631\u0633\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u060c \u0633\u0648\u0627\u0621 \u0643\u0627\u0646\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0638\u0629 \u0639\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0639\u0646 \u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a\u0629 \u061b \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a\u0629 \u060c \u064a\u062c\u0628 \u0623\u0648\u0644\u0627\u064b\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0644\u0628 \u062f\u060c \u0645\u062d\u0648\u0644\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a\u0629 \u061b \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646\u062a \u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a\u0629 \u060c \u0641\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c ARMA (p \u060c q) \u0645\u0628\u0627\u0634\u0631\u0629[5].<\/p>\n

3. \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u062c\u0629 \u060c \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a\u0629. \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0636\u0631\u0648\u0631\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a\u0629 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0645\u0646\u0641\u0635\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0626\u064a ACF\u0645\u0639\u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0632\u0626\u064a PACF\u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0633\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0631\u0633\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0632\u0626\u064a<\/p>\n

4. \u0645\u0646 d \u0648 q \u0648 p \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647\u0627 \u0623\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0647 \u060c \u064a\u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c ARIMA. \u062b\u0645 \u0627\u0628\u062f\u0623 \u0641\u062d\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647. \u0644\u062a\u0623\u0643\u064a\u062f \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u064a\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0641\u0642 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0641\u0639\u0644 \u0645\u0639 \u062e\u0635\u0627\u0626\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0635\u0648\u062f\u0629. \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0644\u0645 \u064a\u062a\u0637\u0627\u0628\u0642 \u060c \u0641\u0627\u0631\u062c\u0639 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0648\u0629 3.<\/p>\n

2. \u0645\u0648\u0636\u0648\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b<\/h2>\n

\u062a\u0646\u0627\u0648\u0644\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u062a\u0642\u0646\u064a\u0627\u062a (\u0648\u062e\u0648\u0627\u0631\u0632\u0645\u064a\u0627\u062a) \u062a\u0639\u062f\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u064a\u0639\u0627\u062a\u060c \u0648\u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u062c\u0629 \u0644\u0645\u0634\u0643\u0644\u0629 \u0636\u0639\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0630\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0648\u0627\u0631\u0632\u0645\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0645\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0623\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0635\u0648\u064a\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0644\u0628 \u0627\u0639\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062f\u0627 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0642\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062e\u0648\u0627\u0631\u0632\u0645\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0643\u0648\u0646\u0629 \u0644\u0647\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0639\u0631\u0636\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u062c\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u064a\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u200b\u200b\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644(ARIMA)<\/p>\n

\u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0634\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u062a\u0642\u0646\u064a\u0627\u062a Oracle Analytic cloud \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0648\u0621 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u064a\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0650 ARIMA \u062d\u064a\u062b \u062a\u064f\u0646\u0634\u0626 \u0648\u0638\u064a\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u062f\u062f \u0639\u0628\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0625\u0645\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a \u0623\u0648 ARIMA. \u064a\u0642\u0648\u0645 \u0628\u0625\u062e\u0631\u0627\u062c \u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0644\u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0647\u0648 \u0645\u062d\u062f\u062f \u0628\u0648\u0627\u0633\u0637\u0629 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a .<\/p>\n

3. \u0645\u0634\u0643\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b<\/h2>\n

\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0643\u0644\u0629 \u0647\u064a \u0645\u062f\u064a \u062f\u0642\u0647 \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0644\u064a\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u064a\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062a\u062c\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0626\u064a\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0634\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0643\u0648\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0647\u0646\u062f\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0632\u064a\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0643\u0645\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062a\u062c\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u0645\u0628\u064a\u0639\u0627\u064b \u0645\u0639 \u0645\u0631\u0627\u0639\u0627\u0629 \u0646\u0633\u0628\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0645\u0639 \u0641\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0646\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0631\u0628\u0639\u0629 \u0644\u062a\u0639\u0638\u064a\u0645 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u064a\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0632\u064a\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0628\u062d\u064a\u0629 .\u0644\u0630\u0643 \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0628\u064a\u0639\u0627\u062a ARIMA \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 oracle Analytic cloud \u0648\u0647\u064a \u0627\u062f\u0627\u0629 \u0645\u062a\u0637\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u0648\u062a\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062b\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 .<\/p>\n

4. \u062d\u062f\u0648\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b<\/h2>\n

<\/a> \u0627\u0644\u062d\u062f\u0648\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0647\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0645\u062a\u062f\u0629 \u0645\u0646 (\u0627\u0628\u0631\u064a\u0644 2018\u0645 \u0648\u062d\u062a\u0649 \u0646\u0648\u0641\u0645\u0628\u0631 2022\u0645)\u060c \u0648\u062a\u0645 \u062c\u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0634\u0647\u0631 \u0645\u0627\u0631\u0633 \u0648\u0627\u0628\u0631\u064a\u0644 2018\u0645\u060c<\/a> \u0627\u0644\u062d\u062f\u0648\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0643\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0647\u064a \u0634\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0643\u0648\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0647\u0646\u062f\u0633\u064a\u0629 (\u0627\u062d\u062f\u064a \u0634\u0631\u0643\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u062d\u062c\u0627\u0631- \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646) \u0648\u0647\u064a \u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0645\u062a\u062e\u0635\u0635 \u0644\u0635\u0646\u0627\u0639\u0647 \u0648\u062a\u062c\u0645\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0644\u0627\u062c\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0643\u064a\u0641\u0627\u062a \u0628\u062c\u0645\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0626\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a.<\/p>\n

5. \u0623\u0647\u062f\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b<\/h2>\n

\u062a\u0647\u062f\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0645\u062a\u0637\u0648\u0631 \u0648\u0645\u0631\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u064a\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0644\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062a\u062c\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e\u064a\u0647 \u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0647 5 \u0633\u0646\u0648\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0648 \u0627\u0642\u0644 \u0648\u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0641\u064a \u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0645\u062e\u0637\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0647 \u0645\u062d\u0644\u0644\u0647 \u0628\u0635\u0648\u0631\u0647 \u062d\u062f\u064a\u062b\u0647 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 Oracle Analytic cloud \u0648\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u200b\u200b\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 ARIMA<\/p>\n

6. \u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b<\/h2>\n

\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0628\u0639\u0629 \u0644\u0625\u062c\u0631\u0627\u0621 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b \u062a\u0634\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644\u064a \u062d\u064a\u062b \u062a\u0645 \u062c\u0645\u0639 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0645\u0633\u062d \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629 \u0648\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0648\u062a\u0635\u0646\u064a\u0641\u0647\u0627 \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u062b\u0645 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u0644\u0627\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062c\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u063a\u0631\u0636 \u062a\u0635\u0645\u064a\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u064a\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0644\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062a\u062c\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0647\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0634\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0643\u0648\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0647\u0646\u062f\u0633\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n

7. \u0625\u062c\u0631\u0627\u0621\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b<\/h2>\n

\u062a\u0634\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u062d\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629: \u062c\u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a Data Collection\u060c \u062a\u062c\u0647\u064a\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a Data Preparation\u060c \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0648\u0627\u0631\u0632\u0645\u064a\u0627\u062a \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0631\u0628 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0648\u0627\u0631\u0632\u0645\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062d\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u0631\u0627\u062c \u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0648\u0627\u0631\u0632\u0645\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0627\u062e\u062a\u064a\u0627\u0631\u0647\u0627\u060c \u062b\u0645 \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0648\u0627\u0631\u0632\u0645\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0645\u064a\u0639\u064a\u0629\u060c \u062a\u062f\u0631\u064a\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c Model Training\u060c \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c Model Testing\u060c \u0648\u062a\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c Model Evaluation \u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u062a\u0645 \u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0643\u0641\u0627\u0621\u0629 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0635\u0646\u064a\u0641 \u0628\u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0635\u0646\u064a\u0641\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062d\u064a\u062d\u0629 \u0648\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062d\u064a\u062d\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0643\u0644 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0645\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u064a\u062a\u0645 \u062a\u0635\u0646\u064a\u0641\u0647\u0627. \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0643\u062a\u0633\u0628\u0629.<\/p>\n

8.\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062a\u0631\u062d<\/h1>\n

\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0633\u0645 \u064a\u0634\u0645\u0644 \u062b\u0644\u0627\u062b \u0645\u0648\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0639\u061b \u0641\u0643\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062a\u0631\u062d\u060c \u0648\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062a\u0631\u062d \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0648\u0636\u062d \u062e\u0637\u0648\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0644 \u0648\u0641\u0642\u0627 \u0644\u0644\u0641\u0643\u0631\u0629\u060c \u062b\u0645 \u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062a\u0631\u062d \u0648\u0641\u0642\u0627 \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c.<\/p>\n

9. \u0641\u0643\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062a\u0631\u062d.<\/h2>\n

\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 ARIMA: (\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u200b\u200b\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0626\u064a) \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u064a\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 OAC(oracle Analytic Cloud) \u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u062a\u0645 \u0639\u0645\u0644 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c ARIMA \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629. \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0647\u064a \u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0638\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0645 \u062c\u0645\u0639\u0647\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0630\u0627\u062a \u0641\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u062a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a\u0629[12].<\/p>\n

\u0623\u0645\u062b\u0644\u0629: \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0646\u0627\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u060c \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u064a\u0648\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u064a\u0639\u0627\u062a \u062d\u0633\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u062f\u062f\u0629 \u060c \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u064a\u0648\u0645\u064a\u0648\u0646.<\/p>\n

\u0645\u0631\u0627\u062d\u0644 \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 ARIMA:<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

. \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0643\u0644) 1. Flow Diagram of ARIMA Model (<\/h3>\n

\u062a\u064f\u0639\u0631\u0641 ARIMA \u0623\u064a\u0636\u064b\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u0645 \u0646\u0647\u062c Box-Jenkins. \u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0625\u0635\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629<\/p>\n

ARIMA \u060c \u0646\u062d\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f p \u060c d \u060c q. \u062d\u064a\u062b \u060c p – \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0626\u064a (\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0626\u064a) d – \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 (\u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a \/ \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647) q – \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u200b\u200b\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643 (\u0627\u0644\u0635\u062f\u0645\u0627\u062a \/ \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0623)<\/p>\n

\u2022 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0631\u064a\u0641: \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0640 p \u0648 d \u0648 q \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a ACF \u0648 PACF \u0648\u062c\u0630\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u062d\u062f\u0629. p \u0647\u0648 \u062a\u0631\u062a\u064a\u0628 AR \u060c d \u0647\u0648 \u062a\u0631\u062a\u064a\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u060c q \u0647\u0648 \u062a\u0631\u062a\u064a\u0628 MA<\/p>\n

\u2022 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631: \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c ARIMA \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0642\u064a\u0645 p \u0648 d \u0648 q \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0639\u062a\u0642\u062f \u0623\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0645\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628\u0629.<\/p>\n

\u2022 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062d\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0634\u062e\u064a\u0635\u064a: \u062a\u062d\u0642\u0642 \u0645\u0646 \u0628\u0642\u0627\u064a\u0627 \u0637\u0631\u0627\u0632 (\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c) ARIMA \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629 \u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0629 \u0645\u0627 \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646\u062a \u0636\u0648\u0636\u0627\u0621 \u0628\u064a\u0636\u0627\u0621 \u061b \u0627\u062e\u062a\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0645\u0639 \u0628\u0642\u0627\u064a\u0627 \u062d\u0633\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0635\u0631\u0641.<\/p>\n

\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624: \u0623\u0646\u062a\u062c \u0645\u0646 \u0639\u064a\u0646\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624\u0627\u062a \u0623\u0648 \u0627\u062a\u0631\u0643 \u0646\u0642\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0644\u064a\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062e\u064a\u0631\u0629 \u062c\u0627\u0646\u0628\u0627\u064b \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u062f\u0627\u062e\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u064a\u0646\u0629.<\/p>\n

1.9 \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a (AR)[4]:<\/p>\n

\u062a\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f \u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629.<\/p>\n

\u0641\u064a \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c AR (p) \u060c \u064a\u064f\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0636 \u0623\u0646 \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0632\u064a\u062c\u064b\u0627 \u062e\u0637\u064a\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0638\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629 p \u0648\u062e\u0637\u0623 \u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0645\u0639 \u0645\u0635\u0637\u0644\u062d \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a.<\/p>\n

\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0627 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0628\u064a\u0631 \u0639\u0646 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c AR (p) \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062d\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u0647\u0646\u0627 yt \u0648 t \u0647\u0645\u0627 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0639\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0623 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a (\u0627\u0644\u0635\u062f\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629) \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 t \u060c \u03d5i (i = 1\u060c2 \u060c … \u060c p) \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0648 c \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a. \u064a\u064f\u0639\u0631\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062d\u064a\u062d \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a p \u0628\u062a\u0631\u062a\u064a\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c.<\/p>\n

2.9 \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u200b\u200b\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643 (MA)[3]:<\/p>\n

\u064a\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u0631\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u200b\u200b\u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u0631\u0627\u0641\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629.<\/p>\n

\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c AR (p) \u064a\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062c\u0639 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u060c \u064a\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c MA (q) \u0623\u062e\u0637\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0636\u064a \u0643\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u062a\u0648\u0636\u064a\u062d\u064a\u0629. \u064a\u062a\u0645 \u0625\u0639\u0637\u0627\u0621 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c MA (q) \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644[3]:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

10. \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062a\u0631\u062d<\/h2>\n

\u0631\u0642\u0645 (1) \u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0647 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062a\u0631\u062d \u0628\u062f\u0621\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0647\u062f\u0627\u0641 \u062b\u0645 \u062c\u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u062a\u064f\u0646\u0634\u0626 \u0648\u0638\u064a\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u062f\u062f \u0639\u0628\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0625\u0645\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a \u0623\u0648 ARIMA \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 Oracle Analytic Cloud<\/p>\n

\u064a\u0642\u0648\u0645 \u0628\u0625\u062e\u0631\u0627\u062c \u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0644\u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0647\u0648 \u0645\u062d\u062f\u062f \u0628\u0648\u0627\u0633\u0637\u0629 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u062f\u062f\u0647.<\/p>\n

FORECAST(numeric_expr, ([series]), output_column_name, options, [runtime_binded_options]).<\/p>\n