{"id":2478,"date":"2022-01-02T12:54:43","date_gmt":"2022-01-02T12:54:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/?page_id=2478"},"modified":"2022-01-02T12:54:48","modified_gmt":"2022-01-02T12:54:48","slug":"3-1-4","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/3-1-4\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641\u064a \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 (\u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062a\u062c\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0642\u0645\u0634\u0629 \u0644\u0634\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0633\u0648\u0631 \u0628\u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u064a\u062c \u0628\u0645\u062f\u064a\u0646\u0629 \u0634\u0646\u062f\u064a)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n

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1<\/sup> \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0627\u0630 \u0645\u0633\u0627\u0639\u062f\u060c \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0634\u0646\u062f\u064a\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646<\/p>\n

\u0628\u0631\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0631\u0648\u0646\u064a: meedony19@gmail.com<\/p>\n

2<\/sup> \u0645\u062d\u0627\u0636\u0631 \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0647 \u0634\u0646\u062f\u064a\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646<\/p>\n

3<\/sup> \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0627\u0630 \u0645\u0634\u0627\u0631\u0643 \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0646\u0648\u0644\u0648\u062c\u064a\u0627\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646<\/p>\n

4 <\/sup>\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0627\u0630 \u0645\u0633\u0627\u0639\u062f \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0647 \u0634\u0646\u062f\u064a\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646<\/p>\n

HNSJ, 2022, 3(1); https:\/\/doi.org\/10.53796\/hnsj314<\/p>\n

\u062a\u0646\u0632\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0641
<\/a><\/p>\n

\u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0634\u0631: 01\/01\/2022\u0645 \u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0628\u0648\u0644: 10\/12\/2021\u0645<\/p>\n

\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062e\u0644\u0635 <\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u00a0<\/p>\n

<\/a>Research title <\/strong><\/p>\n

Using a spectroscopic model for forecasting<\/strong><\/p>\n

(Applying to the data of the produced quantity of fabrics for the Sur Company in the Textile Factory in Shendi City)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad Hassan1<\/sup> Walid Omar Babiker Ibrahim2<\/sup> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Afra Hashem Abdullatif3<\/sup> Ibrahim Muhammad Ibrahim SayedAhmad4<\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n

1 Assistant Professor, Shendi University, Sudan<\/p>\n

Email: meedony19@gmail.com<\/p>\n

2 Lecturer, Shendi University, Sudan<\/p>\n

3 Associate Professor Sudan University of Science and Technology, Sudan<\/p>\n

4 Assistant Professor, Shendi University, Sudan<\/p>\n

HNSJ, 2022, 3(1); https:\/\/doi.org\/10.53796\/hnsj314<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Published at 01\/01\/2022 Accepted at 10\/12\/2021 <\/strong><\/p>\n

Abstract <\/strong><\/p>\n

The study aimed to achieve the objective of the most important of which are the construction of statistical models that help factories and companies to analyze and predict products, and to identify the best and most efficient model. the problem of research was to evaluate the quantities produced by the textile industry in Shandi city (Jan.2015_Apr.2016). In the absence of statistical models used as time series model of time and frequency to predict the quantity produced of fabrics. The study was based on several hypotheses, the most important of which is that the time series of the data produced from the fabrics is stable series ,JH of fabrics textile factory towards the time more accurate in predicting compared to the direction of repetition, was used the descriptive approach and some descriptive statistics and analytical curriculum standards using statistical packages MINITAB &SPSS as well as Excel 2007 for Microsoft to analyze the series data through \u00b8 description and estimate a statistical model suitable depending on some statistical tests. The study found several result, the most important of which is the weekly time series for the quantity produced from the fabrics is an unstable series and the first front difference became a stable series . The appropriate model for the time series data representation for time is the self-regression model and the ARIMA(2,1,1) and through the previous result reached several recommendations, the most important of which can be used the model reached by the researcher through the beneficiary to know the future trends of the phenomenon and the development of plans, The analysis of the researcher can be adopted in the direction of time because it is more accurate than the analysis towards the frequency.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0629 :<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u0623\u062e\u0630\u062a \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0646 \u0634\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0633\u0648\u0631_ \u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u064a\u062c \u0628\u0645\u062f\u064a\u0646\u0629 \u0634\u0646\u062f\u064a \u0648\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0628\u063a\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0642\u0645\u0634\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0628\u0648\u0639\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n

\u0645\u0634\u0643\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b<\/strong> :<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u064a\u0644\u0639\u0628 \u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u064a\u062c \u062f\u0648\u0631 \u0645\u0647\u0645 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0629 \u0625\u0630 \u0627\u0646\u0647 \u064a\u0642\u0648\u0645 \u0628\u062a\u0648\u0641\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641 \u0623\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0642\u0645\u0634\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0623\u0648\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u0633\u0627\u0646 \u0648\u062a\u0642\u0648\u0645 \u0628\u062a\u063a\u0637\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u062d\u062a\u064a\u0627\u062c\u0627\u062a\u0647 , \u0648\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u062f\u0647\u0648\u0631 \u0648 \u062a\u0648\u0642\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0627\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u062a\u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0643\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0627\u0646\u0639 , \u0644\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0644\u0627\u0628\u062f \u0644\u0646\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u0639\u0645\u0644 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a \u064a\u0642\u0648\u0645 \u0628\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0643\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062a\u062c\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0642\u0645\u0634\u0629 \u0628\u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0633\u0648\u0631 \u0628\u0645\u062f\u064a\u0646\u0629 \u0634\u0646\u062f\u064a \u0648\u062a\u0645\u062b\u0644\u062a \u0645\u0634\u0643\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b \u0641\u064a \u0642\u0644\u0629 \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0643\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641\u064a \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0643\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062a\u062c\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0642\u0645\u0634\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0633\u0648\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0633\u064a\u062c \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0627\u0639\u062f\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0648\u0636\u0639 \u062e\u0637\u0637 \u0625\u0633\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a\u064a\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0636\u0645\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639.<\/p>\n

\u0623\u0647\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b :<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u062a\u0623\u062a\u0649 \u0623\u0647\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0625\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0639 \u0623\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0628 \u0639\u0644\u0645\u064a \u0645\u062a\u0642\u062f\u0645 \u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0647\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0626\u0645\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u0645\u0631 \u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0621\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0646\u062a\u062c\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0642\u0645\u0634\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0629 \u0643\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0642\u0645\u0634\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062a\u062c\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0647\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644 .<\/p>\n

\u0623\u0647\u062f\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b :<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0631\u0641 \u0639\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641\u064a .<\/li>\n
  2. \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0633\u0627\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0627\u0646\u0639 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0643\u0627\u062a \u0641\u064a \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062a\u062c\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0647\u0627.<\/li>\n
  3. \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0648\u0623\u0643\u0641\u0623 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0637\u064a\u0641\u064a \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0643\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062a\u062c\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0642\u0645\u0634\u0629 \u0628\u0634\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0633\u0648\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0633\u064a\u062c \u0628\u0645\u062f\u064a\u0646\u0629 \u0634\u0646\u062f\u064a.<\/li>\n
  4. \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0635\u0627\u062d\u0628 \u0623\u062f\u0642 \u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0645\u0646 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c\u064a\u0646 .<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \u0641\u0631\u0648\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b :<\/strong><\/p>\n

      \n
    1. \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062a\u062c\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0642\u0645\u0634\u0629 \u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0629 .<\/li>\n
    2. \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0643\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062a\u062c\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0642\u0645\u0634\u0629 \u0628\u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0633\u0648\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0633\u064a\u062c \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629 .<\/li>\n
    3. \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0648\u0627\u0642\u064a \u062a\u062a\u0648\u0632\u0639 \u062a\u0648\u0632\u064a\u0639\u0627\u064b \u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u064a\u0627\u064b .<\/li>\n
    4. \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0643\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062a\u062c\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0642\u0645\u0634\u0629 \u0628\u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0633\u0648\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0633\u064a\u062c \u0642\u0627\u062f\u0631 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0625\u064a\u062c\u0627\u062f \u062a\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0628\u0648\u0639\u064a\u0629 .<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      \u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b :<\/strong><\/p>\n

      \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0635\u0641\u064a \u0648\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0634\u0643\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0628\u0639\u0636 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u064a\u064a\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0635\u0641\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0633\u062a\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0624\u0644 \u0639\u0646 \u062a\u062d\u0642\u064a\u0642 \u0641\u0631\u0636\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0639\u062f\u0645\u0647\u0627 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644\u064a \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0632\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 MINITAB &SPSS \u0648\u0623\u064a\u0636\u0627 \u0628\u0631\u0646\u0627\u0645\u062c Excel 2007 Microsoft \u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0648\u0635\u0641 \u0648\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0645\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628 \u0627\u0639\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062f\u0627\u064b \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0628\u0639\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n

      \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u0648\u062b \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629 :<\/strong><\/p>\n

        \n
      1. \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0627\u0645 (2016)\u0645 \u0623\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0627\u0631\u0633 \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0639\u0628\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0647 \u0648\u0631\u0642\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0646\u064a\u0644 \u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0643\u062a\u0648\u0631\u0627\u0647 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0621 \u0645\u0646 \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0648 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0646\u0648\u0644\u0648\u062c\u064a\u0627 \u0628\u0639\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0646: ( \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0637\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0644\u062f\u0629 \u0628\u0645\u062d\u0637\u0629 \u062a\u0648\u0644\u064a\u062f \u0633\u0646\u0627\u0631 ) , \u0648\u0647\u062f\u0641\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0643\u0641\u0623 \u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0644\u062f\u0629 \u0628\u0645\u062d\u0637\u0629 \u0633\u0646\u0627\u0631 \u0628\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 \u0648 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0648\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645\u0647 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u0646 2016\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0649 2020\u0645 .(13)<\/sup><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        \u0648\u0642\u062f \u062a\u0648\u0635\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0623\u0647\u0645\u0647\u0627 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0629, \u0648\u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0627\u0626\u0645 \u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0641\u0624 \u0644\u062a\u0645\u062b\u064a\u0644 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0637\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0644\u062f\u0629 \u0628\u0645\u062d\u0637\u0629 \u0633\u0646\u0627\u0631 \u0628\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 \u0647\u0648 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u064aAR(1), \u0648\u0648\u062c\u062f \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0627\u0626\u0645 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0643\u0641\u0624 \u0644\u062a\u0645\u062b\u064a\u0644 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0637\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0644\u062f\u0629 \u0628\u0645\u062d\u0637\u0629 \u0633\u0646\u0627\u0631 \u0628\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0647\u0648 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c :<\/p>\n

          \n
        1. \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0627\u0645 2010\u0645 \u0623\u0639\u062f\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0627\u0631\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0635\u0627\u0631 \u0623\u0628\u0648 \u062a\u0644\u0629 \u0628\u0634\u064a\u0631 \u0625\u062f\u0631\u064a\u0633 \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0628\u062d\u062b \u0644\u0646\u064a\u0644 \u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062c\u0633\u062a\u064a\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u064a \u0645\u0646 \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0648 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0646\u0648\u0644\u0648\u062c\u064a\u0627 \u0628\u0639\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0646: (\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u062d\u0648\u0627\u062f\u062b \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0644\u0648\u0644\u0627\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0631\u0637\u0648\u0645). ( 4)<\/sup><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          \u0648\u0642\u062f \u062a\u0648\u0635\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628 \u0641\u064a \u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u062d\u0648\u0627\u062f\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0633\u064a\u0637\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062c\u0633\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u062a , \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0648\u0627\u062f\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0633\u064a\u0637\u0629 \u0647\u0648 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u0649 AR(1) , \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0648\u0627\u062f\u062b \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0633\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0633\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0647\u0648ARIMA (0,1,2) , \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u062d\u0648\u0627\u062f\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u062a \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0633\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u0649 ARIMA (0,1,1) , \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0627\u0646\u0647 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0648\u0635\u0644 \u0625\u0644\u064a\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b \u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645\u0647\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0647\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062e\u0637\u064a\u0637\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0648\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0638\u0627\u0647\u0631\u0629.<\/p>\n

            \n
          1. \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0627\u0645 2009\u0645 \u0623\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0627\u0631\u0633 \u0645\u0646\u062a\u0635\u0631 \u0623\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0639\u062b\u0645\u0627\u0646 \u0628\u062d\u062b \u0644\u0646\u064a\u0644 \u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062c\u0633\u062a\u064a\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u064a \u0645\u0646 \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0648 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0646\u0648\u0644\u0648\u062c\u064a\u0627 \u0628\u0639\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0646: ( \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0637\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0644\u062f\u0629 \u0628\u0645\u062d\u0637\u0629 \u0633\u0646\u0627\u0631). (7) <\/sup><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

            \u0648\u0642\u062f \u062a\u0648\u0635\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u0646 \u0643\u0645\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0637\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0648\u0644\u0627\u064a\u0629 \u0633\u0646\u0627\u0631 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 1960-2007\u0645 \u062a\u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u062e\u0637\u064a\u0629 \u0633\u0627\u0643\u0646\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628 \u0644\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0647\u0648 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c (ARMA(1.1 \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0623\u0648\u0635\u0649 \u0628\u0623\u0646\u0647 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u062a\u0645 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631\u0647 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0643\u0645\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0637\u0627\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0648\u0644\u0627\u064a\u0629 \u0643\u0633\u0644\u0627 \u0644\u0623\u0646\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0646\u0633\u0628 \u0648\u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062e\u0637\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u0647 \u062a\u062a\u0628\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0632\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u064a \u0648\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0629.<\/p>\n

              \n
            1. \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0627\u0645 2009\u0645 \u0623\u0639\u062f\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0627\u0631\u0633\u0629 \u0631\u0634\u0627 \u0634\u0645\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0646 \u0645\u062d\u062c\u0648\u0628 \u0628\u062d\u062b \u0644\u0646\u064a\u0644 \u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062c\u0633\u062a\u064a\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u064a \u0645\u0646 \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0648 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0646\u0648\u0644\u0648\u062c\u064a\u0627 \u0628\u0639\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0646: ( \u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0628\u0648\u0643\u0633 \u062c\u0646\u0643\u0646\u0632 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u062a\u0643\u0644\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0648\u0644\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0645\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062d\u064a). (12)<\/sup><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

              \u0648\u0642\u062f \u062a\u0648\u0635\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u0646 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u062a\u0643\u0644\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0648\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0644\u0627\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0623\u0645\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062d\u064a \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0648\u0627\u0633\u0637\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0628\u0648\u0643\u0633 \u0648\u062c\u0646\u0643\u0646\u0632 , \u0648\u0623\u0646 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u062a\u0643\u0644\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0648\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0644\u0627\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0645\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062d\u064a \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0633\u0627\u0643\u0646\u0629 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u062a\u062d\u0648\u0649 \u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0639\u0627\u0645 \u0648\u0623\u0635\u0628\u062d\u062a \u0633\u0627\u0643\u0646\u0629 \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0623\u062e\u0630 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644, \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0623\u0646 \u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0644\u062a\u0645\u062b\u064a\u0644 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u062a\u0643\u0644\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0648\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0644\u0627\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0623\u0645\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062d\u064a \u0647\u0648 (1.1.3 ) ARIMA .<\/p>\n

              \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u062a\u0645 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631\u0647 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u062a\u0643\u0644\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0648\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0644\u0627\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0645\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062d\u064a.<\/p>\n

                \n
              1. \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645 2009\u0645 \u0642\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b \u0639\u0645\u0627\u062f \u064a\u0639\u0642\u0648\u0628 \u0628\u0639\u0645\u0644 \u0631\u0633\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u062f\u0643\u062a\u0648\u0631\u0627\u0647 \u0628\u0639\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0628\u0648\u0643\u0633 \u062c\u0646\u0643\u064a\u0632 \u0648\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0628\u0643\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0635\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0635\u0637\u0646\u0627\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 , \u0648\u0642\u062f \u062a\u0646\u0627\u0648\u0644\u062a \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0628\u0648\u0643\u0633 \u062c\u0646\u0643\u064a\u0632 \u0648\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0628\u0643\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0635\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0635\u0637\u0646\u0627\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642 \u0639\u0644\u064a \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0637\u0627\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0631\u0627\u0639\u064a \u0645\u0645\u062b\u0644\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0645\u062d\u0627\u0635\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0631\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0641\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d \u0644\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 1965-2000\u0645 \u0648\u0647\u062f\u0641\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0644\u0625\u0628\u0631\u0627\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0645\u0627 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0627\u0644\u0649\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u062f\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0635\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647\u0627 \u0648\u0645\u062f\u0649 \u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0637\u0631\u0623 \u0639\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0644\u0627\u062e\u0637\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0639\u0644\u064a \u0623\u062f\u0627\u0621 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0627\u0644\u0649\u0628 .(6) <\/sup><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a :<\/strong><\/p>\n

                \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0629 :<\/strong><\/p>\n

                \u064a\u0639\u062a\u0628\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0642\u064a\u0642 \u0645\u0646 \u0623\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0627\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u0627\u0647\u062a\u0645 \u0628\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0648\u0646 \u0648 \u0630\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u0648\u062b \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u064a\u0646\u0635\u062d \u062f\u0627\u0626\u0645\u0627\u064b \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u064a\u0628\u0629 \u0648\u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062b\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0645\u062c\u0631\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u064a \u0645\u0634\u0627\u0647\u062f\u0629 \u062c\u062f\u064a\u062f\u0629\u060c \u0648\u064a\u0648\u062c\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0638\u0627\u0647\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u0648\u0636\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0623\u0628\u0631\u0632\u0647\u0627 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c (Box & Jenkins ) \u0641\u064a \u0625\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u0623\u062b\u0628\u062a\u062a \u0643\u0641\u0623\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0648\u062f\u0642\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u062c\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a \u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u0647\u0627 , \u0648\u0644\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0633\u0646\u062a\u0646\u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0645\u0631\u0627\u062d\u0644 \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0626\u0647\u0627 \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u062b\u0645 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645\u0647\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0639\u0646 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642 \u062a\u062d\u0648\u064a\u0644 \u0641\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0631 .<\/p>\n

                2-2\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0643\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0648\u0627\u062c\u0647 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0647\u064a:<\/strong><\/p>\n

                  \n
                1. \u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631: (5)<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                  \u0645\u0646 \u0634\u0631\u0648\u0637 \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u0646 \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0643\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0628\u0627\u064a\u0646 \u0623\u064a \u0623\u0646 \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0647\u0627 \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a \u0648 \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641 \u0628\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646, \u0648 \u062a\u0628\u0627\u064a\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a \u0648 \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641 \u0628\u0625\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 .<\/p>\n

                  \u0648 \u0639\u062f\u0645 \u062a\u062d\u0642\u0642 \u0623\u064a \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0637\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u064a\u0646 \u064a\u0624\u062f\u064a \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0625\u0645\u0643\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648 \u0644\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u064a\u062c\u0628 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u062c\u062a\u0647 \u0623\u0648\u0644\u0627\u064b.<\/p>\n

                    \n
                  1. \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u062c\u0629 \u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 :<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
                      \n
                    • \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u062c\u0629 \u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 (5) :<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                      \u062a\u062a\u0645 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u062c\u0629 \u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0628\u0625\u064a\u062c\u0627\u062f \u062a\u062d\u0648\u064a\u0644 \u0645\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628 \u0644\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0629 \u0644\u062a\u062d\u0648\u064a\u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0629 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0639\u0627\u0645 \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0643\u0644<\/p>\n

                      \u0641\u0625\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0648\u064a\u0644 \u064a\u062d\u0648\u0644\u0647 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u060c \u0623\u064a \u0623\u0646 \u0647\u0648 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631<\/p>\n

                        \n
                      • \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u062c\u0629 \u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0628\u0627\u064a\u0646 :(5) <\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                        \u062a\u062a\u0645 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u062c\u0629 \u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0628\u0627\u064a\u0646 \u0628\u0625\u064a\u062c\u0627\u062f \u062a\u062d\u0648\u064a\u0644 \u0645\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628 \u0644\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0629 \u0644\u062a\u062d\u0648\u064a\u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0629 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0639\u0627\u0645 \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0628\u0627\u064a\u0646 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0643\u0644<\/p>\n

                        \u062d\u064a\u062b \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a \u0648 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0639\u0631\u0648\u0641\u0629 \u062a\u0639\u0637\u0649 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0633\u0627\u0644\u0628\u0629 \u0648 \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u064a\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 \u0648 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u0625\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0628\u0627\u064a\u0646 \u064a\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 \u0648\u0647\u0646\u0627 \u0646\u062d\u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0625\u064a\u062c\u0627\u062f \u062a\u062d\u0648\u064a\u0644 \u0623\u064a \u0623\u064a\u062c\u0627\u062f \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u0625\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0628\u0627\u064a\u0646.<\/p>\n

                        \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0648\u064a\u0644<\/p>\n

                        \u064a\u0639\u0637\u064a \u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0628\u0627\u064a\u0646 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0647\u0648 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0648\u064a\u0644.<\/p>\n

                        \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u064a\u0639\u0637\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645\u0627 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0648\u064a\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u0647\u0627:<\/p>\n

                        \u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644 (2-1): \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645\u0627 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0648\u064a\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u0647\u0627 :<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
                        \n

                        -0.1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                        		\n

                        -0.5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                        		\n

                        0.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                        		\n

                        0.5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                        		\n

                        0.1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                        		\n

                        \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

                        \u00a0<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\n\n

                        \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0648\u064a\u0644<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

                        \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u062f\u0631: (5) .<\/p>\n

                        2-3 \u0637\u0631\u0642 \u0643\u0634\u0641 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629:<\/strong><\/p>\n

                        \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0643\u0634\u0641 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0646 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642:<\/p>\n

                        1-3-2\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a : (5)<\/strong><\/p>\n

                        \u064a\u0639\u0631\u0641 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0628\u0623\u0646\u0647 \u0645\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633 \u0644\u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0646\u0641\u0633\u0647\u060c \u0648\u064a\u0642\u062f\u0631 \u062d\u0633\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u064a\u063a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629:<\/p>\n

                        2-3-2\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0632\u0626\u064a: (10)<\/strong><\/p>\n

                        \u062a\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0632\u0626\u064a PACF \u0643\u0623\u062f\u0627\u0629 \u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0628\u0648\u0643\u0633 \u062c\u0646\u0643\u0646\u0632 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u062c\u0627\u0646\u0628 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a ACF.<\/p>\n

                        \u0642\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641:<\/strong><\/p>\n

                        \u0647\u064a \u0639\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0639\u0646 \u062a\u062d\u0648\u064a\u0644 \u0641\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0631 \u0644\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u063a\u0627\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0648\u0647\u0648 \u0623\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0628 \u0644\u062a\u062d\u0648\u064a\u0644 \u0623\u064a \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0628\u062f\u0644\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 g(t) \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0623\u062e\u0631\u0649 f(w) \u0628\u062f\u0644\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0631 ,\u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u0639\u0637\u064a \u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0648\u0644\u0629 \u0635\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0647\u0627 .<\/p>\n

                        \u0642\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641 \u0644\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 Zt<\/sub> \u0647\u064a \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 p(w) \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0635\u064a\u063a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 :<\/p>\n

                        \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0623\u0646 w =2\u03c0f \u062a\u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0648\u0627\u064a\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0635\u0641 \u0642\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0629(Radians) \u0641\u064a \u0648\u062d\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 , \u0648\u0623\u0645\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0631 f = k\/n<\/p>\n

                        2-4 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062b\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641\u064a\u0629 :<\/strong><\/p>\n

                        \u062a\u0639\u0631\u0641 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062b\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0623\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0645\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633 \u0644\u062a\u0648\u0632\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629 \u0643\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0631\u062f\u062f \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0631\u062f\u062f frequency \u064a\u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0648\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 .<\/p>\n

                        \u0648\u064a\u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062b\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641\u064a\u0629 Spectral Density function f(w) \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0635\u064a\u063a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 :<\/p>\n

                        2-5 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0625\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646:<\/strong><\/p>\n

                        2-5-1 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a AR(p):(8)<\/strong><\/p>\n

                        \u064a\u0631\u0645\u0632 \u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0631\u0645\u0632 AR(p) \u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u0634\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0645\u0632 p\u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0631\u062a\u0628\u0629 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0648\u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0628\u064a\u0631 \u0639\u0646\u0647 \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0644\u064a:<\/p>\n

                        \u062d\u064a\u062b:<\/p>\n

                        \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a.<\/p>\n

                        \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a.<\/p>\n

                        \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a.<\/p>\n

                        2-6 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629MA(p): (8)<\/strong><\/p>\n

                        \u064a\u0631\u0645\u0632 \u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0631\u0645\u0632MA(q) \u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u0634\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0645\u0632 q \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0631\u062a\u0628\u0629 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0648\u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0628\u064a\u0631 \u0639\u0646\u0647 \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0644\u064a:<\/p>\n

                        (7 -2) \u2026\u2026\u2026\u2026\u2026\u2026\u2026\u2026…………….<\/p>\n

                        \u062d\u064a\u062b:<\/p>\n

                        \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a.<\/p>\n

                        \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629.<\/p>\n

                        6-2-1 <\/strong>\u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0648\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0636\u0631\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0625\u0646\u0639\u0643\u0627\u0633:<\/p>\n

                        2-6-2 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629:ARMA(p,q):(8)<\/strong><\/p>\n

                        \u0648\u064a\u0631\u0645\u0632 \u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0631\u0645\u0632 ARMA(p,q) \u062d\u064a\u062b \u062a\u0634\u064a\u0631 p \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0631\u062a\u0628\u0629 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0648 q \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0631\u062a\u0628\u0629 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629\u060c \u0648\u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0628\u064a\u0631 \u0639\u0646 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c ARMA(p,q) \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0644\u064a:<\/p>\n

                        \u0623\u0648<\/p>\n

                        \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0647\u0648 \u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a Autoregressive Operator \u0648 \u0647\u0648 \u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643 Moving Average Operator .<\/p>\n

                        \u062d\u064a\u062b :<\/p>\n

                        \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a.<\/p>\n

                        \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a .<\/p>\n

                        \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629.<\/p>\n

                        \u0645\u0634\u0627\u0647\u062f\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n

                        B \u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0632\u0627\u062d\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0644\u0641(Back Operator Shift).<\/p>\n

                        2-6-3 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c ARMA(0,0): (5)<\/strong><\/p>\n

                        \u064a\u0633\u0645\u064a \u0623\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a \u0648\u064a\u062d\u062a\u0648\u064a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0638\u0627\u0647\u0631\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0641\u0642\u0637 \u0648\u064a\u0643\u062a\u0628 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a:<\/p>\n

                        \u062e\u0635\u0627\u0626\u0635 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c ARMA(0,0)<\/p>\n

                        \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0633\u0637:<\/p>\n

                        \u00a0<\/p>\n

                        \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0628\u0627\u064a\u0646:<\/p>\n

                        2-7-5 <\/strong><\/p>\n

                        \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644\u0627\u062a \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u0643\u0631\u0629:<\/p>\n

                        \u0634\u0631\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631:<\/p>\n

                        \u064a\u0642\u0627\u0644 \u0623\u0646 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c ARMA(1,1)\u0633\u0627\u0643\u0646 \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646:<\/p>\n

                        \u0634\u0631\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0639\u0643\u0627\u0633:<\/p>\n

                        \u0648\u064a\u0633\u0645\u064a \u0623\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627 \u0634\u0631\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0642\u0644\u0627\u0628 \u0648\u064a\u0642\u0627\u0644 \u0623\u0646 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c ARMA(1,1) \u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644 \u0644\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0639\u0643\u0627\u0633 \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646:<\/p>\n

                        \u0634\u0631\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0645\u062a\u0633\u0627\u062e:<\/p>\n

                        \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0637 \u064a\u0636\u0645\u0646 \u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0625\u0645\u062a\u0633\u0627\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0623\u0642\u0644 \u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u060c \u0641\u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0641\u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0648\u0628\u0627\u0644\u0642\u0633\u0645\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0633\u064a\u0635\u0628\u062d \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629:<\/p>\n

                        \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0647\u0648 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c ARMA(0,0) \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a.<\/p>\n

                        2\u201464- \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 ARIMA(p,d,q):(9)<\/strong><\/p>\n

                        \u0628\u0645\u0627 \u0623\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u0638\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0639\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0646\u0634\u0623 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0633\u0627\u0643\u0646\u0629 \u0644\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u064a\u062c\u0628 \u0623\u062e\u0630 \u0641\u0631\u0648\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u062a\u0633\u0643\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644\u060c \u0648\u0633\u0646\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0636 \u0623\u0646 d \u0647\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0646\u0649 \u0644\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0648\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u064a\u062c\u0628 \u0623\u0646 \u062a\u0623\u062e\u0630 \u0644\u062a\u0633\u0643\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629. \u0648\u064a\u0637\u0644\u0642 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0635\u0641 \u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0628\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c ARIMA \u062a\u0645\u064a\u064a\u0632\u0627\u064b \u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0639\u0646 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c ARMA \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0643\u0646\u0629.<\/p>\n

                        \u0644\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u064a\u0642\u0627\u0644 \u0623\u0646 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0625\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0648\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0648\u064a\u0634\u0627\u0631 \u0625\u0644\u064a\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0631\u0645\u0632 ARIMA(p,d,q) \u0648\u062a\u0643\u062a\u0628 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629:<\/p>\n

                        \u062d\u064a\u062b:<\/p>\n

                        \u0648\u062a\u0643\u062a\u0628 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0635\u0627\u0631\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a:<\/p>\n

                        \u0648\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u064a\u0631\u0645\u0632 \u0644\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0648\u0644\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0631\u0645\u0632 \u0623\u064a \u062a\u0643\u062a\u0628:<\/p>\n

                        \u062d\u064a\u062b:<\/p>\n

                        \u0648\u0647\u064a \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 ARMA \u0633\u0627\u0643\u0646\u0629.<\/p>\n

                        7-2\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0625\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0631: (11) <\/strong><\/p>\n

                        2-7-1 \u0642\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641 \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u0649 AR(1) :<\/strong><\/p>\n

                        \u0642\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641 \u0644\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0647\u064a:<\/p>\n

                        \u0646\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0638 \u0627\u0646 \u0642\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641 \u0644\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u062a\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629, \u0641\u0639\u0646\u062f\u0645\u0627 \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 s<\/sub>>0 \u0648\u0643\u0628\u064a\u0631\u0629 \u0641\u0627\u0646 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0642\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641 \u062a\u062a\u0631\u0643\u0632 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0636\u0629 (low frequencies) , \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646\u062a \u0641\u0627\u0646 \u0642\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641 \u062a\u062a\u0631\u0643\u0632 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 (High frequencies) .<\/p>\n

                        2-7-2<\/strong>\u0623\u0645\u0627 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0643\u062b\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641 \u0644\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0641\u062a\u0639\u0637\u064a \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0635\u064a\u063a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 :<\/p>\n

                        \u00a0<\/p>\n

                        \u0648\u0628\u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u0639\u0627\u0645\u0629 \u0641\u0625\u0646 \u0642\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641 \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 AR(p) :<\/p>\n

                        27–3 \u0642\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641 \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u0649 MA(1) :<\/strong><\/p>\n

                        \u0642\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641 \u0644\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u062a\u0639\u0637\u064a \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0635\u064a\u063a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 :<\/p>\n

                        \u0648\u0623\u0646 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062b\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0647\u064a :<\/p>\n

                        \u0648\u0628\u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u0639\u0627\u0645\u0629 \u0641\u0625\u0646 \u0642\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641 \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 MA(q) \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u0635\u064a\u063a\u062a\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 :<\/p>\n

                        \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0643\u062a\u0627\u0628\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0635\u064a\u063a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 :<\/p>\n

                        2- 4-7 \u0642\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641 \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u0649 ARMA(1,1) :<\/strong><\/p>\n

                        \u0646\u062c\u062f \u0625\u0646 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 (1,1) \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u064a\u0639\u0631\u0641 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0635\u064a\u063a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 :<\/p>\n

                        \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0623\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0647 \u0646\u062c\u062f \u0623\u0646 \u0642\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641 (Power Spectrum) \u0644\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0647\u064a :<\/p>\n

                        \u0648\u0623\u0646 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062b\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0647\u064a :<\/p>\n

                        \u0648\u0628\u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u0639\u0627\u0645\u0629 \u0641\u0627\u0646 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 (p,q) \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u064a\u0639\u0631\u0641 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0635\u064a\u063a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 :<\/p>\n

                        \u0641\u0627\u0646 \u0642\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641 \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0623\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0647 \u0647\u064a :<\/p>\n

                        2-7 5- \u0642\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641 \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0623 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a :<\/strong><\/p>\n

                        \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646\u062a at \u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0637\u0629 \u0648\u0623\u0646 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u063a\u0627\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0647\u064a :<\/p>\n

                        \u0641\u0627\u0646 \u0642\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641 \u0644\u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0647\u064a :<\/p>\n

                        \u0648\u0623\u0646 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062b\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0647\u064a :<\/p>\n

                        \u0623\u064a \u0623\u0646 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062b\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0643\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a\u0629 \u0648\u0644\u062c\u0645\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a .<\/p>\n

                        2-8 \u0645\u0631\u0627\u062d\u0644 \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 : (1)<\/strong><\/p>\n

                        \u0647\u0646\u0627\u0644\u0643 \u0623\u0631\u0628\u0639 \u0645\u0631\u0627\u062d\u0644 \u064a\u0645\u0631 \u0628\u0647\u0627 \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648 \u0647\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0634\u062e\u064a\u0635 \u062b\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u062b\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062d\u0635 \u062b\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 , \u0648\u0633\u0648\u0641 \u0646\u062a\u062d\u062f\u062b \u0639\u0646 \u0643\u0644 \u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0635\u064a\u0644<\/p>\n

                        2–81 \u062a\u0634\u062e\u064a\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c : Model Identification (1)<\/strong><\/p>\n

                        \u062a\u0639\u062f \u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0634\u062e\u064a\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u0649 \u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 , \u0648\u062a\u0634\u0645\u0644 \u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0629 \u0646\u0648\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0648\u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u062f\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u064a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0644\u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644.<\/p>\n

                        \u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0634\u062e\u064a\u0635 \u062a\u062a\u0636\u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0648\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0622\u062a\u064a\u0629:<\/p>\n

                          \n
                        1. \u0646\u0631\u0633\u0645 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0648\u064a\u0639\u062f \u0631\u0633\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u0649 \u0641\u064a \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0623\u064a\u0629 \u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                          \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0633\u0645 \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0644\u062f\u064a\u0646\u0627 \u0641\u0643\u0631\u0629 \u062c\u064a\u062f\u0629 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0648\u0633\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u0648 \u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0639\u0627\u0645 \u0623\u0648 \u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0634\u0627\u0630\u0629 \u0623\u0648 \u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u064a\u0642\u0648\u062f \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0648\u064a\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0645\u0643\u0646\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a\u060c \u0644\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0641\u0625\u0646 \u0631\u0633\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u064a\u0628\u064a\u0646 \u062d\u0627\u062c\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0648\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628 \u0644\u062a\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0647\u0627 \u0623\u0648 \u062a\u0628\u0627\u064a\u0646\u0627\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0644\u0645 \u062a\u0643\u0646 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0629 \u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0623\u064a \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644.<\/p>\n

                            \n
                          1. \u0646\u062d\u0633\u0628 \u0648\u0646\u0641\u062d\u0635 PACF,ACF \u0644\u0644\u0639\u064a\u0646\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062d\u0648\u0628\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0635\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0648\u0642 (\u0641\u064a \u062d\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629)\u060c \u0641\u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646\u062a ACF \u0644\u0644\u0639\u064a\u0646\u0629 \u062a\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0631 \u0628\u0628\u0637\u0621 \u0634\u062f\u064a\u062f \u060c PACF \u0644\u0644\u0639\u064a\u0646\u0629 \u062a\u0642\u0637\u0639 \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0632\u0627\u062d\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u0649 (\u0623\u0648 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0639\u0643\u0633) \u0641\u0625\u0646 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u064a\u0633\u062a\u0648\u062c\u0628 \u0623\u062e\u0630 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644 Zt<\/sub>(1-B). \u0648\u0644\u0644\u062a\u062e\u0644\u0635 \u0645\u0646 \u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0646\u062d\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u062e\u0630 \u0623\u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0631\u062a\u0628\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0648\u0642 d<\/sup>Zt<\/sub>(1-B) \u062d\u064a\u062b 0<d (\u0648\u063a\u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u064b \u0645\u0627 \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 d=0,1,2). \u0648\u0625\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0648\u0642 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0636\u0631\u0648\u0631\u064a \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0623\u0642\u0644 \u062e\u0637\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0623\u0647\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0648\u0642. \u0646\u062d\u0633\u0628 \u0648\u0646\u0641\u062d\u0635 PACF, ACF \u0644\u0644\u0639\u064a\u0646\u0629 \u0644\u062a\u0634\u062e\u064a\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c\u060c \u0648\u062a\u0648\u062c\u062f \u062b\u0646\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0627 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c (1,0)ARMA \u0623\u0648 (1)AR \u0648\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c (0,1)ARMA \u0623\u0648 (1)MA \u0648\u0641\u0642\u0627\u064b \u0644\u0644\u062f\u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a\u0646. \u0648\u062a\u0632\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0643\u0644\u0629 \u062a\u0639\u0642\u064a\u062f\u0627\u064b \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0649,ACF PACF \u0644\u062a\u0634\u062e\u064a\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0648\u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0631\u062a\u0628\u062a\u0647 \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0641\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0627\u064b \u060c \u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0648\u0627\u0644 \u0623\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0647 \u0641\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u062a\u0633\u0644\u0643 \u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643\u0627\u064b \u0645\u062a\u0634\u0627\u0628\u0647\u0627\u064b \u0647\u0648 \u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0627\u0642\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0631\u064a\u062c\u064a.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                            \u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644 \u0631\u0642\u0645( 2-2) \u062e\u0648\u0627\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u062d\u0633\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0632\u0626\u064a:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
                            \n

                            PACF<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                            		\n

                            ACF<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                            		\n

                            \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                            		\n

                            \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0642\u0645<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

                            \n

                            \u064a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0631 \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0632\u0627\u062d\u0629 p<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                            		\n

                            \u064a\u0642\u062a\u0631\u0628 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0631 \u062a\u062f\u0631\u064a\u062c\u064a\u0627\u064b<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                            		\n

                            AR(p)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                            		\n

                            1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

                            \n

                            \u064a\u0642\u062a\u0631\u0628 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0631 \u062a\u062f\u0631\u064a\u062c\u064a\u0627\u064b<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                            		\n

                            \u064a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0631 \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0632\u0627\u062d\u0629 q<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                            		\n

                            MA(q)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                            		\n

                            2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

                            \n

                            \u064a\u0642\u062a\u0631\u0628 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0631 \u062a\u062f\u0631\u064a\u062c\u064a\u0627\u064b<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                            		\n

                            \u064a\u0642\u062a\u0631\u0628 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0631 \u062a\u062f\u0631\u064a\u062c\u064a\u0627\u064b<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                            		\n

                            ARMA(p,q)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                            		\n

                            3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

                            \n

                            \u064a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0631 \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0632\u0627\u062d\u0629 1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                            		\n

                            \u064a\u0642\u062a\u0631\u0628 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0631 \u062a\u062f\u0631\u064a\u062c\u064a\u0627\u064b<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                            		\n

                            AR(1)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                            		\n

                            4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

                            \n

                            \u064a\u0642\u062a\u0631\u0628 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0631 \u062a\u062f\u0631\u064a\u062c\u064a\u0627\u064b<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                            		\n

                            \u064a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0631 \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0632\u0627\u062d\u0629 1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                            		\n

                            MA(1)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                            		\n

                            5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

                            \n

                            \u064a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0631 \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0632\u0627\u062d\u0629 2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                            		\n

                            \u064a\u0642\u062a\u0631\u0628 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0631 \u062a\u062f\u0631\u064a\u062c\u064a\u0627\u064b<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                            		\n

                            AR(2)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                            		\n

                            6<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

                            \n

                            \u064a\u0642\u062a\u0631\u0628 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0631 \u062a\u062f\u0631\u064a\u062c\u064a\u0627\u064b<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                            		\n

                            \u064a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a \u0635\u0641\u0631 \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0632\u0627\u062d\u0629 2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                            		\n

                            MA(2)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

                            		\n

                            7<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

                            \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u062f\u0631: (1) .<\/p>\n

                            2-8-2 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c (1):<\/strong><\/p>\n

                            \u0628\u0639\u062f \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0644\u0627\u0628\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0648 \u0648 \u0648\u0648 \u03b3 \u0648\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0641\u0631\u0629 \u0644\u062f\u064a\u0646\u0627.<\/p>\n

                            \u0647\u0646\u0627\u0643 \u0639\u062f\u0629 \u0637\u0631\u0642 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0646\u0630\u0643\u0631 \u0645\u0646\u0647\u0627 :<\/p>\n

                            2-8-2-1 \u0628\u0639\u0636 \u0637\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0625\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 :<\/strong><\/p>\n

                              \n
                            1. \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u0648\u0645 (the method of the moments) .<\/li>\n
                            2. \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0645\u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0639\u0638\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0636\u0628\u0648\u0637\u0629 (Exact maximum likelihood method) .<\/li>\n
                            3. \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0628\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0635\u063a\u0631\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0637\u064a\u0629 (Conditional Least square method) .<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                              \u0648 \u0633\u0648\u0641 \u0646\u0643\u062a\u0641\u064a \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u062f\u062b \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0628\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u0648\u0645 \u0641\u0642\u0637 .<\/p>\n

                                \n
                              1. \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u0648\u0645 : (1)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                \u062a\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0633\u0627\u0648\u0627\u0629 \u0639\u0632\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u064a\u0646\u0629 \u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u064a\u0646\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0625\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u064a\u0646\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0648\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0648\u062d\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u062f \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631\u0647\u0627.<\/p>\n

                                \u0633\u0648\u0641 \u0646\u0633\u062a\u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c AR(p) \u0643\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a:<\/p>\n

                                  \n
                                1. \u064a\u0642\u062f\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631 \u0623\u064a<\/li>\n
                                2. \u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0646\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629:<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                  \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0646\u062a\u062c \u0645\u0646 \u0636\u0631\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0629 \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c AR(p) \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062d\u062f \u0648\u0623\u062e\u0630 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639. \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u0648\u0636\u0639 \u0646\u062d\u0635\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0646\u0638\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0645\u0649 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u064a\u0648\u0644 \u0648 \u0648\u0648\u0643\u0631 Yule-Walker \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629:<\/p>\n

                                  \u0648 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0648\u064a\u0636 \u0639\u0646 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631 \u0646\u062d\u0635\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u0648\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0643\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a:<\/p>\n

                                  \u0628\u0648\u0636\u0639 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u064a\u0648\u0644 \u0648 \u0648\u0648\u0643\u0631 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0641\u0648\u0641\u064a:<\/p>\n

                                  \u0648\u0628\u062d\u0644 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a<\/p>\n

                                  \u062a\u0642\u062f\u0631 \u0643\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a<\/p>\n

                                  \u062d\u064a\u062b:<\/p>\n

                                  \u0648\u0647\u0648 \u062a\u0628\u0627\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u064a\u0646\u0629.<\/p>\n

                                  \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u0648\u0645 \u0644\u0628\u0639\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c:<\/p>\n

                                    \n
                                  1. \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u0648\u0645 \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c AR(1) : (1)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                    \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u0648\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0647\u0648<\/p>\n

                                    \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u0648\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0647\u0648<\/p>\n

                                    \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u0648\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0647\u0648<\/p>\n

                                    \u062d\u064a\u062b<\/p>\n

                                      \n
                                    1. \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u0648\u0645 \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c MA(1) (1):<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                      \u0644\u0625\u064a\u062c\u0627\u062f \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u0648\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0646\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629<\/p>\n

                                      \u0648\u0628\u062a\u0639\u0648\u064a\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0628\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0627\u062a\u0647\u0627<\/p>\n

                                      \u0648\u0628\u062d\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631 \u0646\u062c\u062f<\/p>\n

                                      \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0644 \u064a\u0639\u0637\u064a \u0642\u064a\u0645\u062a\u064a\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631 \u0646\u0623\u062e\u0630 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u062d\u0642\u0642 . \u0641\u0645\u062b\u0644\u0627 \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646\u062a \u0641\u0625\u0646 \u0648 \u0648\u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u0648\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645 \u0647\u0648 .<\/p>\n

                                        \n
                                      1. \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u0648\u0645 \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c AR(2) : (1)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                        \u0628\u0625\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u064a\u0648\u0644 \u0648\u0648\u0643\u0631 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u0648\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0648 \u0647\u064a<\/p>\n

                                        \u0648\u0645\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0646\u062c\u062f<\/p>\n

                                        \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u0648\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0647\u0648<\/p>\n

                                        \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u0648\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0647\u0648<\/p>\n

                                          \n
                                        1. \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u0648\u0645 \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c MA(2) : (1)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                          \u0644\u0625\u064a\u062c\u0627\u062f \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u0648\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0648 \u0646\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0627\u062a<\/p>\n

                                          \u0648\u0628\u062a\u0639\u0648\u064a\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0648 \u0646\u062d\u0635\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u0648\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0648<\/p>\n

                                          \u0648\u0646\u062d\u0644\u0644 \u0643\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0648 \u0648\u0646\u0623\u062e\u0630 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0644\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u062d\u0642\u0642<\/p>\n

                                          .<\/p>\n

                                            \n
                                          1. \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u0648\u0645 \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062cARMA(1,1) :(1)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                            \u0644\u0625\u064a\u062c\u0627\u062f \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u0648\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0648 \u0646\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0627\u062a<\/p>\n

                                            \u0648\u0628\u062a\u0639\u0648\u064a\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0648 \u0646\u062d\u0635\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u0648\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0648<\/p>\n

                                            \u0648\u0628\u0642\u0633\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631 \u0646\u062c\u062f<\/p>\n

                                            2-8-2-2 \u0628\u0639\u0636 \u0637\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0625\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0631 :<\/strong><\/p>\n

                                            \u0647\u0646\u0627\u0643 \u0639\u062f\u0629 \u0637\u0631\u0642 \u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0643\u062b\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641 \u0646\u0630\u0643\u0631 \u0645\u0646\u0647\u0627 :<\/p>\n

                                              \n
                                            1. \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629 :<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                              \u0648\u0647\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u0627\u0626\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u064a\u062a\u0645 \u0641\u064a\u0647\u0627 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0643\u062b\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0627\u0647\u062f\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0628\u0627\u0634\u0631\u0629 , \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u0623\u0634\u0647\u0631 \u062f\u0648\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0632\u0627\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0648\u0639 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0648\u0632\u0646 \u062a\u0648\u0643\u064a \u0647\u0627\u0645\u0646\u0643 Tukey Hamming \u0648\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0648\u0632\u0646 \u0628\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0644\u062a Bartlett \u0648\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0648\u0632\u0646 \u0628\u0627\u0631\u0632\u0646 Parzen .<\/p>\n

                                                \n
                                              1. \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629 :<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                                \u062a\u0639\u062a\u0628\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u0627\u0626\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u0635\u0631\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0648\u0647\u064a \u062a\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0639\u064a\u0646\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0630 \u062a\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u062e\u0631\u062c\u0627\u062a \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 (AR,MA,ARMA) \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0642\u0648\u0629 \u0643\u062b\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641 (PSD) Power Spectral Density \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u0639\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0639\u0646 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0644\u0630\u0627 \u062a\u0633\u0645\u064a \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u062a\u0645 \u0625\u062e\u062a\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0627\u0626\u0645 \u0644\u062a\u0645\u062b\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u062b\u0645 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u064a\u062a\u0645 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u064a\u0627\u0631\u0647 \u062b\u0645 \u062a\u0639\u0648\u064a\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0635\u064a\u063a\u0629 (PSD) \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0635\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0648\u0633\u0648\u0641 \u0646\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642 .<\/p>\n

                                                2-8-3 \u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0629 \u0625\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0648\u0641\u062d\u0635 \u062f\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c :<\/strong><\/p>\n

                                                2-8-3-1 \u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0629 \u0625\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0648\u0641\u062d\u0635 \u062f\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0628\u0625\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 :<\/strong><\/p>\n

                                                \u0628\u0639\u062f \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0644\u0627\u0628\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0625\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0645\u062f\u0649 \u0645\u0644\u0627\u0626\u0645\u0629 \u0623\u0648 \u0635\u0644\u0627\u062d\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0644\u062a\u0645\u062b\u064a\u0644 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u062a\u0648\u062c\u062f \u0639\u062f\u0629 \u0637\u0631\u0642 \u0646\u0630\u0643\u0631 \u0645\u0646\u0647\u0627 :<\/p>\n

                                                  \n
                                                1. \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0644\u0627\u0628\u062f \u0623\u0646 \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0630\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u064a \u062a\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0631 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0627\u064b , \u0648\u064a\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0644\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0625\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0633\u062a\u064a\u0648\u062f\u0646\u062a (t) \u0641\u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646\u062a \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u0644\u0627\u0628\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0628\u0639\u0627\u062f \u0623\u062d\u062f AR \u0623\u0648 MA .<\/li>\n
                                                2. \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0648\u0627\u0642\u064a (8):<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                                  \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0631\u0641 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0645\u0628\u062f\u0626\u064a \u0648\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0646\u062c\u0631\u064a \u0628\u0639\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0634\u062e\u064a\u0635\u0627\u062a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0648\u0627\u0642\u064a \u0623\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062e\u0637\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629 \u0644\u0646\u0631\u0649 \u0645\u062f\u0649 \u0645\u0637\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0644\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0627\u0647\u062f\u0629 \u060c \u0648\u064a\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0636 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0648\u0627\u0642\u064a \u0647\u064a \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0634\u0648\u064a\u0634 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0628\u064a\u0636 .<\/p>\n

                                                  \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u0646\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0636 \u0625\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0645\u0648\u0632\u0639\u0629 \u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u064a\u0627\u064b \u0628\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0635\u0641\u0631\u064a \u0648\u062a\u0628\u0627\u064a\u0646 . \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0648\u0627\u0642\u064a \u062a\u0639\u0637\u0649 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629<\/p>\n

                                                  \u064a\u0642\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062d\u0635 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0625\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0641\u062d\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0648\u0627\u0642\u064a \u0647\u0644 \u0647\u064a \u062a\u0634\u0648\u064a\u0634 \u0623\u0628\u064a\u0636 \u0623\u0645 \u0644\u0627 \u060c \u0641\u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646\u062a \u062a\u0634\u0648\u064a\u0634 \u0623\u0628\u064a\u0636 \u0646\u0639\u062a\u0628\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0637\u0628\u0642 \u0645\u0642\u0628\u0648\u0644\u0627\u064b \u0623\u0645\u0627 \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0644\u0645 \u062a\u0643\u0646 \u0643\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0641\u064a\u062c\u0628 \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0646\u0627 \u0625\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631 \u0648\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062d \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0622\u062e\u0631 \u0648\u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0622\u062a\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0629 \u0645\u0627 \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631 \u0645\u0644\u0627\u0626\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0623\u0645 \u0644\u0627 .<\/p>\n

                                                  \u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0647\u064a:<\/p>\n

                                                  \u0648\u062a\u0633\u0645\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 Ljung-box \u0648 \u0647\u064a \u062a\u062a\u0648\u0632\u0639 \u062a\u0648\u0632\u064a\u0639 \u0645\u0631\u0628\u0639 \u0643\u0623\u064a \u0628\u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u062d\u0631\u064a\u0629<\/p>\n

                                                  \u062d\u064a\u062b:<\/p>\n

                                                  \u0641\u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646\u062a \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0623\u0642\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0647\u064a \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u0625\u0646 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0643\u0641\u0627\u0621\u0629 \u0648 \u0645\u0644\u0627\u0621\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a .<\/p>\n

                                                  \u0648\u0641\u064a \u062d\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0642\u0628\u0648\u0644 \u0639\u062f\u0629 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0627\u0628\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0625\u062e\u062a\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0648\u0641\u0642\u0627\u064b \u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u064a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0641\u0627\u0636\u0644\u0629:<\/p>\n

                                                    \n
                                                  1. \u0623\u0646 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u062a\u0628\u0627\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0630\u0627 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0636\u0639\u064a\u0641\u0629 .<\/li>\n
                                                  2. \u0623\u0646 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639 \u0645\u0631\u0628\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0648\u0627\u0642\u064a \u0636\u0626\u064a\u0644\u0627\u064b .<\/li>\n
                                                  3. \u0623\u0646 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0631\u0642 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0643\u062b\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0648\u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062b\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0642\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0627\u0647\u062f\u0627\u062a \u0636\u0626\u064a\u0644\u0627\u064b .<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                                    \u0648\u0647\u0646\u0627\u0643 \u0639\u062f\u0629 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u064a\u064a\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0641\u0627\u0636\u0644\u0629 \u0623\u0634\u0647\u0631\u0647\u0627 :<\/p>\n

                                                    – \u0645\u0639\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0623\u0643\u0627\u064a\u0643\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a: (8)<\/strong><\/p>\n

                                                    \u0648 \u064a\u0631\u0645\u0632 \u0644\u0647 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0635\u0627\u0631\u0627\u064b \u0628\u0640\u0640\u0640 AIC \u0648 \u064a\u062d\u0633\u0628 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u064a\u063a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0622\u062a\u064a\u0629 :<\/p>\n

                                                    \u062d\u064a\u062b:<\/p>\n

                                                    SSR \u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639 \u0645\u0631\u0628\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0648\u0627\u0642\u064a<\/p>\n

                                                    n \u062d\u062c\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u064a\u0646\u0629<\/p>\n

                                                    \u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646\u0629 \u0647\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u0644\u0647 \u0623\u0642\u0644 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0644\u0640 AIC .<\/p>\n

                                                    2-8-3-2 \u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0629 \u0625\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0648\u0641\u062d\u0635 \u062f\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0628\u0625\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0631:<\/strong><\/p>\n

                                                    \u0625\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0645 MokkdemTest :<\/p>\n

                                                    \u0647\u0648 \u0623\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0628 \u062c\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u064a\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0642\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633 \u0623\u0646 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0643\u062b\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641 \u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062e\u0637\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0629 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u064a\u062a\u0635\u0641 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062b\u0628\u0627\u062a :<\/p>\n

                                                    \u0648\u0623\u0646 \u0625\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0645 MokkdemTest \u064a\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 :<\/p>\n

                                                    \u0648\u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u064a\u063a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0625\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0643\u0627\u0644\u0623\u062a\u064a :<\/p>\n

                                                    \u062d\u064a\u062b \u062a\u0633\u062a\u062e\u0631\u062c \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 T \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0644\u064a :<\/p>\n

                                                    \u0648\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631\u0647\u0627 \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0635\u064a\u063a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 :<\/p>\n

                                                    \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0623\u0646:<\/p>\n

                                                    \u0648\u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u0641\u0625\u0646:<\/p>\n

                                                    \u00a0<\/p>\n

                                                    \u0648\u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u064a\u063a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0623\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0647 \u0643\u0627\u0644\u0623\u062a\u064a :<\/p>\n

                                                    \u0648\u062a\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0645\u0639 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644\u064a\u0629 , \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u064a\u063a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0647\u064a :<\/p>\n

                                                    \u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0646 \u062a\u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0644\u0627\u0644\u0629 ,m \u062a\u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0627\u0643\u0628\u0631 \u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637\u0624 \u0644 k ,n \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0627\u0647\u062f\u0627\u062a , \u0648 \u062a\u0633\u062a\u062e\u0631\u062c \u0645\u0646 \u062c\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0632\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u064a\u0627\u0631\u064a .<\/p>\n

                                                    \u0648\u0639\u0646\u062f \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0633\u0648\u0628\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0646\u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0641\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0648\u0646\u0631\u0641\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062f\u064a\u0644 \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646\u062a \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0642\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0623\u064a \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062e\u0637\u0627\u0621 \u062a\u062a\u0648\u0632\u0639 \u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0627 \u0648\u0627\u0646 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062b\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0635\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0628\u0648\u0627\u0642\u064a \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a\u0629 \u0623\u064a \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062e\u0635 \u0645\u0644\u0627\u0626\u0645 .<\/p>\n

                                                    2-8- 4 \u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 : (9)<\/strong><\/p>\n

                                                    \u062a\u0639\u062a\u0628\u0631 \u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0645\u0646 \u0623\u0647\u0645 \u0645\u0631\u0627\u062d\u0644 \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 ,\u062d\u064a\u062b \u0627\u0646\u0647 \u0628\u0639\u062f \u062a\u0634\u062e\u064a\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0648\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a\u0647 \u0648\u0641\u062d\u0635\u0647 \u064a\u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645\u0647 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641 \u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0638\u0627\u0647\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062f\u0631\u0648\u0633\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644 .<\/p>\n

                                                    \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0623\u0631\u062f\u0646\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0633\u062a\u062f\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u064a\u0633\u062a\u062f\u0639\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0629 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0643\u062b\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0637\u064a \u0644\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u060c \u0623\u064a \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0643\u062b\u0627\u0641\u062a\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0625\u0644\u0649\u0629 \u0628\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u062d\u062a\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 t \u060c \u0623\u064a \u0628\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u064a\u0639\u0631\u0641 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0632\u064a\u0639 \u0641\u064a \u0623\u062f\u0628\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0632\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624\u064a Predictive Distribuion .\u0648\u0642\u062f \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0625\u062e\u062a\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0632\u064a\u0639\u060c \u0623\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0637\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0628\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0646\u0642\u0637\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0648\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0644\u0623\u0646\u0647 \u064a\u062d\u0642\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0646\u064a<\/p>\n

                                                    \u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0645\u0631\u0628\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062e\u0637\u0627\u0621 Mean Square Error (MSE) \u0628\u0645\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0623\u0646\u0647 \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0635\u062d\u064a\u062d\u0627 \u0625\u0646\u0647 \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0648\u062c\u062f \u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0622\u062e\u0631 \u064a\u0639\u0637\u064a \u0623\u062e\u0637\u0627\u0621 \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0645\u0631\u0628\u0639\u0627\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0623\u0635\u063a\u0631.<\/p>\n

                                                    \u0641\u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646 F \u0623\u064a \u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0646\u0642\u0637\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0646\u0642\u0637\u0629 \u0623\u0635\u0644 \u0645\u0639\u064a\u0646\u0629 t \u0641\u0625\u0646 \u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 (\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637) \u0645\u0631\u0628\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062e\u0637\u0627\u0621 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 F \u0628\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u062d\u062a\u064a \u0646\u0642\u0637\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0635\u0644 t \u064a\u0639\u0631\u0641 \u0628\u0623\u0646\u0647:<\/p>\n

                                                    \u0641\u0625\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u0633\u0646\u0631\u0645\u0632 \u0644\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0637\u064a \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0631\u0645\u0632 \u0623\u064a \u0623\u0646:<\/p>\n

                                                    \u0648\u064a\u0639\u062a\u0628\u0631 \u0643\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0646\u0642\u0637\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0644\u0647 \u062e\u0627\u0635\u064a\u0629 \u062c\u064a\u062f\u0629 \u0648\u0647\u064a \u0623\u0646\u0647 \u064a\u0646\u062a\u062c \u0623\u062e\u0637\u0627\u0621 \u0630\u0627\u062a \u0623\u0642\u0644 \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0645\u0631\u0628\u0639\u0627\u062a.<\/p>\n

                                                    2-8-4-1 \u062f\u0648\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0625\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 :<\/strong><\/p>\n

                                                      \n
                                                    1. \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a AR(p) :<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                                      \u0627\u0644\u0635\u064a\u063a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0630\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0645\u0631\u0628\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062e\u0637\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0646\u064a \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c AR(P) \u0647\u064a<\/p>\n

                                                        \n
                                                      1. \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u0649 AR(1) :<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                                        \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u064a\u063a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0630\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0645\u0631\u0628\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062e\u0637\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0646\u064a \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c AR(1) \u0647\u064a<\/p>\n

                                                        \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 AR(2) :<\/p>\n

                                                        \u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u064a\u063a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0630\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0645\u0631\u0628\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062e\u0637\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0646\u064a \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c AR(2) \u0647\u064a<\/p>\n

                                                        \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629 MA(P) :<\/p>\n

                                                        \u0627\u0644\u0635\u064a\u063a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0630\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0645\u0631\u0628\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062e\u0637\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0646\u064a \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c MA(P) \u0647\u064a<\/p>\n

                                                          \n
                                                        1. \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629 MA(1) :<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                                          \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0625\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u064a\u063a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0630\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0645\u0631\u0628\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062e\u0637\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0646\u064a \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c MA(1) \u0647\u064a<\/p>\n

                                                          2-4-8-2\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0625\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0631 :<\/strong><\/p>\n

                                                          \u0625\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u0642\u064a\u0629 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u062a\u0645\u062b\u064a\u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 :<\/p>\n

                                                          \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0623\u0646 \u0647\u064a \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0644 \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u0648\u0628\u0645\u0627 \u0623\u0646<\/p>\n

                                                          \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0623\u0646 m \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0635\u062d\u064a\u062d \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a \u0635\u0641\u0631 \u0641\u0627\u0646<\/p>\n

                                                          \u00a0<\/p>\n

                                                          \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0639\u0646\u062f\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0631\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0644\u0623\u064a \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0623\u0643\u0628\u0631 \u0645\u0646 n \u0641\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0641\u064a \u062a\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0637\u0629 \u0633\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0645\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a\u0627 \u0644\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0637\u0629 \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0644\u062f\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c .<\/p>\n

                                                          3 \u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0646\u0633\u064a\u062c \u0634\u0646\u062f\u064a : (15)<\/strong><\/p>\n

                                                          \u064a\u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0646\u0633\u064a\u062c \u0634\u0646\u062f\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u064a\u0642\u0639 \u0641\u064a \u0648\u0644\u0627\u064a\u0629 \u0646\u0647\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u064a\u0644 \u0628\u0645\u062f\u062e\u0644 \u0645\u062f\u064a\u0646\u0629 \u0634\u0646\u062f\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0633\u0627\u062d\u0629 32 \u0623\u0644\u0641 \u0645\u062a\u0631 \u0645\u0631\u0628\u0639 \u0627\u062d\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0631\u0648\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0645\u0648\u062d\u0629 \u0644\u0645\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0634\u0646\u062f\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u0642\u0628\u0644\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0647\u0627\u0646 \u0639\u0644\u064a \u0625\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u062d\u0631\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u064a\u062c \u0628\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0635\u0641\u0627\u062a \u0639\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0648\u0641\u0642 \u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u062a\u062d\u0642\u0642 \u0628\u0625\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0629 \u0644\u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u064a\u062c \u0628\u0634\u0646\u062f\u064a \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0647\u0648 \u0627\u062d\u062f\u064a \u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u0627\u0646 \u0634\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u062c\u064a\u0627\u062f \u0648\u064a\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0628\u0634\u0631\u0627\u0643\u0629 \u0645\u0639 \u0634\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0633\u0648\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0627\u0631 , \u0648\u0647\u0648 \u0627\u0645\u062a\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0644\u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u064a\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u062a\u0645 \u0625\u0646\u0634\u0627\u0621\u0647 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645 1974\u0645 \u0644\u064a\u062a\u0645 \u0625\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u062a\u0623\u0647\u064a\u0644\u0647 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645 2011\u0645 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0629 \u062a\u062c\u0631\u064a\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0628\u0644\u063a \u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c\u0647 \u0641\u064a \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0642\u062a \u062d\u0648\u0627\u0644\u064a 12 \u0623\u0644\u0641 \u0645\u062a\u0631 \u0637\u0648\u0644\u064a \u0648\u064a\u0643\u0641\u064a \u062d\u0627\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0644\u0627\u0628 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0631 \u0648\u064a\u0646\u062a\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0643\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0628\u0648\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0648\u064a\u0648\u0641\u0631 \u0627\u062d\u062a\u064a\u0627\u062c\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0637\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0644\u064a .<\/p>\n

                                                          \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0641\u062a\u062a\u0627\u062d \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0639\u0644\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0644\u062a\u062d\u0642\u064a\u0642 \u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0635\u0644 \u0625\u0644\u064a 25 \u0623\u0644\u0641 \u0645\u062a\u0631 \u0637\u0648\u0644\u064a \u064a\u0648\u0645\u064a\u0627 \u062a\u063a\u0637\u064a\u0629 \u062d\u0627\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0644\u064a \u0648\u062a\u0648\u0641\u064a\u0631 \u0641\u0627\u0626\u0636 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0635\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0639\u0628\u0631 96 \u0645\u0627\u0643\u064a\u0646\u0629 \u0648\u0641\u0642 \u0627\u062d\u062f\u062b \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062c\u0627\u0644 \u0648\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0632\u0645 \u0628\u0643\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u064a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0648\u062f\u0629 \u0648\u0635\u0648\u0644\u0627 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0635\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0646\u064a\u0644 \u0634\u0647\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u064a\u0632\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629 ,\u0648\u064a\u0634\u0647\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0641\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0623\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0633\u0648\u062c\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0634\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u062d\u062f\u062b \u062a\u0642\u0646\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0633\u0643\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0648\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u064a \u0645\u0646\u0633\u0648\u062c\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0648\u0645\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062d\u0631\u0627\u0626\u0642 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u062e\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0639\u0648\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u064a\u0629 .<\/p>\n

                                                          \u0648\u062a\u0642\u062f\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0642\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0644\u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0646\u0633\u064a\u062c \u0634\u0646\u062f\u064a \u0628\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u06407 \u0645\u0644\u064a\u0648\u0646 \u0645\u062a\u0631 \u0633\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0627 .<\/p>\n

                                                          \u064a\u062d\u062a\u0648\u064a \u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0646\u0633\u064a\u062c \u0634\u0646\u062f\u064a \u0639\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062a\u064a :<\/p>\n

                                                            \n
                                                          • 96 \u0645\u0627\u0643\u064a\u0646\u0629 \u0646\u0633\u064a\u062c \u0627\u064a\u0637\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 .<\/li>\n
                                                          • \u0642\u0633\u0645 \u062a\u062d\u0636\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u062d\u062f\u064a\u062b .<\/li>\n
                                                          • \u0642\u0633\u0645 \u0641\u062d\u0635 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062a\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0647\u0627\u0626\u064a .<\/li>\n
                                                          • \u0648\u0631\u0634\u0629 \u0647\u0646\u062f\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644\u0629 .<\/li>\n
                                                          • \u0645\u062d\u0637\u0629 \u0643\u0647\u0631\u0628\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u062d\u062a\u064a\u0627\u0637\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0647\u0627 3 \u0645\u0648\u0644\u062f\u0627\u062a<\/li>\n
                                                          • \u0645\u062d\u0637\u0629 \u062a\u0628\u0631\u064a\u062f \u0648\u062a\u0643\u064a\u064a\u0641 \u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0635\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c .<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                                                            \u0648\u0643\u0627\u0646\u062a \u0628\u062f\u0627\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a \u0641\u064a \u064a\u0648\u0646\u064a\u0648 2014\u0645 .<\/p>\n

                                                            \u0648\u064a\u0634\u0627\u0631 \u0625\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0646 \u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0646\u0633\u064a\u062c \u0634\u0646\u062f\u064a \u064a\u0639\u062a\u0628\u0631 \u0625\u062d\u062f\u0649 \u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0634\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u062c\u064a\u0627\u062f \u0648\u0634\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0633\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629( \u0648\u0647\u064a \u0634\u0631\u0627\u0643\u0629 \u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0642\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0631\u0643\u064a\u0629 ) \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0626\u0632\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0645\u062a\u064a\u0627\u0632 \u062a\u0634\u063a\u064a\u0644 \u0645\u0635\u0627\u0646\u0639 \u0646\u0633\u064a\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0635\u0627\u062d\u064a\u0635\u0627 \u0648\u0643\u0648\u0633\u062a\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062f\u0648\u064a\u0645 \u0648\u0634\u0646\u062f\u064a.<\/p>\n

                                                            \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0635\u064a\u0627\u062a<\/strong> :<\/p>\n

                                                            \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c :<\/strong><\/p>\n

                                                              \n
                                                            1. \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0628\u0648\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0643\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062a\u062c\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0642\u0645\u0634\u0629 \u0628\u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0633\u0648\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0633\u064a\u062c \u0628\u0645\u062f\u064a\u0646\u0629 \u0634\u0646\u062f\u064a \u0639\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0639\u0646 \u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0629 \u0648\u0628\u0623\u062e\u0630 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0627\u0645\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644 \u0623\u0635\u0628\u062d\u062a \u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0629<\/li>\n
                                                            2. \u0628\u0648\u0627\u0642\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0623\u062e\u0637\u0627\u0621 \u062a\u062a\u0648\u0632\u0639 \u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u064a\u0627\u064b .<\/li>\n
                                                            3. \u062a\u0645\u062a \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 p.value = 0.602 \u0645\u0639 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629 0.05 \u0648\u0647\u064a \u0627\u0643\u0628\u0631 \u0645\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0644\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u062a\u0645 \u0642\u0628\u0648\u0644 \u0641\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0626\u0644 \u0628\u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0648\u0627\u0642\u064a \u0647\u064a \u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629.<\/li>\n
                                                            4. \u0648\u062c\u062f \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0627\u0626\u0645 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0643\u0641\u0648\u0621 \u0644\u062a\u0645\u062b\u064a\u0644 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0628\u0648\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0643\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062a\u062c\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0642\u0645\u0634\u0629 \u0628\u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0633\u0648\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0633\u064a\u062c \u0628\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 \u0647\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643 , \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643 \u0647\u0648 ARIMA(2,1,1) \u0648\u0635\u064a\u063a\u062a\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0644\u064a:<\/li>\n
                                                            5. \u0648\u062c\u062f \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0627\u0626\u0645 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0643\u0641\u0648\u0621 \u0644\u062a\u0645\u062b\u064a\u0644 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0628\u0648\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0643\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062a\u062c\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0642\u0645\u0634\u0629 \u0628\u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0633\u0648\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0633\u064a\u062c \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641\u064a \u0647\u0648 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c:<\/li>\n
                                                            6. \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0635 \u0628\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0628\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 \u0623\u062f\u0642 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0635 \u0628\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0628\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0644\u0623\u0646\u0647 \u0627\u0642\u0631\u0628 \u0648 \u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u0627\u0646\u0633\u062c\u0627\u0645\u0627 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0642\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0629.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                                              \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0635\u064a\u0627\u062a :<\/strong><\/p>\n

                                                              \u0623\u0648\u0644\u0627\u064b \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0635\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0629:<\/strong><\/p>\n

                                                                \n
                                                              1. \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0639\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u062a\u0648\u0635\u0644 \u0625\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b \u0628\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 \u0644\u0623\u0646\u0647 \u0623\u062f\u0642 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0628\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0631 .<\/li>\n
                                                              2. \u0625\u062c\u0631\u0627\u0621 \u0628\u062d\u0648\u062b \u0648\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0631 .<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                                                \u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0627\u064b \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0635\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0635\u0629 :<\/strong><\/p>\n

                                                                  \n
                                                                1. \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0643\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062a\u062c\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0642\u0645\u0634\u0629 \u0628\u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u064a\u062c .<\/li>\n
                                                                2. \u0639\u0644\u064a \u0625\u062f\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0634\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0633\u0648\u0631(\u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u064a\u062c ) \u062a\u0648\u0641\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0643\u0628\u0631 \u0642\u062f\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0648\u062d\u0648\u0633\u0628\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0634\u0643\u0644 \u062a\u0642\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0631 \u062d\u062a\u064a \u064a\u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u0623\u0633\u0647\u0644 .<\/li>\n
                                                                3. \u0632\u064a\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0643\u064a\u0646\u0627\u062a \u064a\u0632\u064a\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0646\u0639 .<\/li>\n
                                                                4. \u0636\u0631\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0643\u064a\u0646\u0627\u062a .<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                                                  \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u062c\u0639:<\/strong><\/p>\n

                                                                    \n
                                                                  1. \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0648\u0628\u0639\u064a ,\u0639\u0628\u064a\u062f \u0645\u062d\u0645\u0648\u062f (2008-2009) .” \u0645\u062d\u0627\u0636\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0631\u0646\u0627\u0645\u062c \u0645\u0627\u062c\u0633\u062a\u064a\u0631 \u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0621 ” \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0648 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0646\u0648\u0644\u0648\u062c\u064a\u0627.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                                                    2- \u0623\u0645\u064a\u0646 ,\u062f.\u0623\u0633\u0627\u0645\u0629 \u0623\u0645\u064a\u0646(2007).”\u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u0631\u0646\u0627\u0645\u062c Minitab_”,\u0642\u0633\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0621 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0645\u064a\u0646_\u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0631\u0629(\u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u062f\u0627\u062a)_ \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0648\u0641\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n

                                                                      \n
                                                                    1. \u0623\u0645\u064a\u0646 ,\u062f.\u0623\u0633\u0627\u0645\u0629 \u0623\u0645\u064a\u0646(2007).” \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u0631\u0646\u0627\u0645\u062c “SPSS ,\u0642\u0633\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0621 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0645\u064a\u0646_\u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0631\u0629(\u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u062f\u0627\u062a)_ \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0648\u0641\u064a\u0629.<\/li>\n
                                                                    2. \u0628\u0634\u064a\u0631, \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0635\u0627\u0631 \u0623\u0628\u0648\u062a\u0644\u0629 (2010\u0645).” \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u062d\u0648\u0627\u062f\u062b \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0644\u0648\u0644\u0627\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0631\u0637\u0648\u0645 ” ,\u0631\u0633\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0627\u062c\u0633\u062a\u064a\u0631 ,\u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0648 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0646\u0648\u0644\u0648\u062c\u064a\u0627.<\/li>\n
                                                                    3. \u0639\u0628\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0631\u062d\u0645\u0646 ,\u0639\u062f\u0646\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u0627\u062c\u062f (2002)\u060c \u0637\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u060c \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0632\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u060c \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0643 \u0633\u0639\u0648\u062f_ \u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 _ \u0642\u0633\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0621 \u0648\u0628\u062d\u0648\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0627\u062a.<\/li>\n
                                                                    4. \u0639\u0645\u0627\u062f \u064a\u0639\u0642\u0648\u0628 (2009\u0645). ” \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0628\u0648\u0643\u0633 \u062c\u0646\u0643\u064a\u0646\u0632 \u0648\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0628\u0643\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0635\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629”,\u0623\u0637\u0631\u0648\u062d\u0629 \u062f\u0643\u062a\u0648\u0631\u0627\u0647 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0646\u0634\u0648\u0631\u0629 , \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0646\u0648\u0644\u0648\u062c\u064a\u0627, \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 .<\/li>\n
                                                                    5. \u0639\u062b\u0645\u0627\u0646,\u0645\u0646\u062a\u0635\u0631 \u0627\u062d\u0645\u062f(2009).”\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0637\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0644\u062f\u0629 \u0628\u0645\u062d\u0637\u0629 \u0633\u0646\u0627\u0631”,\u0628\u062d\u062b \u0645\u0627\u062c\u0633\u062a\u064a\u0631, \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0646\u0648\u0644\u0648\u062c\u064a\u0627, \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 .<\/li>\n
                                                                    6. \u0633\u0639\u062f\u0627\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0646, \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0633\u0639\u062f\u0627\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0646 ,\u0625\u0628\u0631\u0627\u0647\u064a\u0645, \u062d\u0630\u064a\u0641\u0629 \u0639\u0628\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0631\u062d\u0645\u0646 (2001).” \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629”\u060c \u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0633\u0648\u0628\u060c \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0632\u064a\u0631\u0629 .<\/li>\n
                                                                    7. \u0634\u0639\u0631\u0627\u0648\u064a, \u062f. \u0633\u0645\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0635\u0637\u0641\u064a (2005)\u060c” \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062b \u0644\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629”\u060c \u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u060c \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0643 \u0639\u0628\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0632\u064a\u0632\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0645\u0644\u0643\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0639\u0648\u062f\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u064a \u060c \u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0634\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0645\u064a\u060c \u0635 \u0628: 80200 – \u062c\u062f\u0629: 21589.<\/li>\n
                                                                    8. \u0641\u0627\u0646\u062f\u0627\u0644 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0631 (1992\u0645). “”\u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u062c\u0647\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0628\u0648\u0643\u0633 \u2013\u062c\u0646\u0643\u064a\u0632” \u062a\u0639\u0631\u064a\u0628 :\u0639\u0628\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636\u064a \u062d\u0627\u0645\u062f \u0639\u0632\u0627\u0645 ,\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0634\u0631 ,\u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636 , \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0645\u0644\u0643\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0639\u0648\u062f\u064a\u0629.<\/li>\n
                                                                    9. \u0643\u0646\u064a\u0647\u0631, \u062f.\u0639\u0628\u0627\u0633 \u0644\u0641\u062a\u0647(2009) “\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0641\u0630 \u0645\u0642\u062a\u0631\u062d\u0629 \u0644\u062a\u0645\u0647\u064a\u062f \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641 \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u062b\u0646\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a “, \u0645\u062c\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0648\u064a\u062a \u0644\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0625\u062f\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629 , \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644 .<\/li>\n
                                                                    10. \u0645\u062d\u062c\u0648\u0628 ,\u0631\u0634\u0627 \u0634\u0645\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0646(2009\u0645).” \u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0628\u0648\u0643\u0633 \u062c\u0646\u0643\u0646\u0632 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u062a\u0643\u0644\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0648\u0644\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0645\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062d\u064a” ,\u0631\u0633\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0627\u062c\u0633\u062a\u064a\u0631 , \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0646\u0648\u0644\u0648\u062c\u064a\u0627<\/li>\n
                                                                    11. \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0639\u0628\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0647(2016).” \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0637\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0644\u062f\u0629 \u0628\u0645\u062d\u0637\u0629 \u062a\u0648\u0644\u064a\u062f \u0633\u0646\u0627\u0631” , \u0648\u0631\u0642\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629 , \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0648 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0646\u0648\u0644\u0648\u062c\u064a\u0627 .<\/li>\n<\/ol>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                                                                      \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0623\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u062d\u0633\u06461 \u0648\u0644\u064a\u062f \u0639\u0645\u0631 \u0628\u0627\u0628\u0643\u0631 \u0627\u0628\u0631\u0627\u0647\u064a\u06452 \u0639\u0641\u0631\u0627\u0621 \u0647\u0627\u0634\u0645 \u0639\u0628\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0644\u0637\u064a\u06413 \u0627\u0628\u0631\u0627\u0647\u064a\u0645 \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0627\u0628\u0631\u0627\u0647\u064a\u0645 \u0633\u064a\u062f\u0623\u062d\u0645\u062f4 1 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0627\u0630 \u0645\u0633\u0627\u0639\u062f\u060c \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0634\u0646\u062f\u064a\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0628\u0631\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0631\u0648\u0646\u064a: meedony19@gmail.com 2 \u0645\u062d\u0627\u0636\u0631 \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0647 \u0634\u0646\u062f\u064a\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 3 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_joinchat":[],"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-2478","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2478","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2478"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2478\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2488,"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2478\/revisions\/2488"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2478"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}