{"id":11396,"date":"2024-10-01T12:15:15","date_gmt":"2024-10-01T12:15:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/?page_id=11396"},"modified":"2024-10-01T12:15:43","modified_gmt":"2024-10-01T12:15:43","slug":"5-10-10","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/5-10-10\/","title":{"rendered":""},"content":{"rendered":"\n

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\u0628\u0631\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0631\u0648\u0646\u064a: yousifelhaj50@gmail.com<\/p>\n\n\n\n
HNSJ, 2024, 5(10); https:\/\/doi.org\/10.53796\/hnsj510\/10<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u062a\u062d\u0645\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0641<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0634\u0631: 01\/10\/2024\u0645 \u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0628\u0648\u0644: 20\/09\/2024\u0645<\/p>\n\n\n\n \n \t \n
\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u062b\u064a\u0642<\/h4> \t\t\n<\/textarea> \n<style>\n#citationtitle {\nfont-family:verdana;\n}\n#value {\nfont-family:adobe arabic;\n background-color:#FFF;\n width:700px;\nheight:70px;\n}\n#language.option{\ntype:text;\n}\n<\/style>\n \t\t<script type=\"text\/javascript\"> \n \t\t\tfunction update() { \n \t\t\t\tvar select = document.getElementById('language'); \n \t\t\t\tvar option = select.options[select.selectedIndex]; \n \t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById('value').value = option.value; \n \t\t\t} \n \t\t\tupdate(); \n \t\t<\/script> \n \t<\/body> \n <\/html>\n\n\n\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062e\u0644\u0635 <\/strong><\/p>\n\u0647\u062f\u0641\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633 \u0623\u062b\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0646\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0631\u0641\u064a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0633\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 2000 – 2022\u0645. \u0648\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0642\u064a\u0642 \u0627\u0647\u062f\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0641\u0642\u062f \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u0639\u0648\u0636\u0627\u064b \u0639\u0646 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643 \u0644\u0639\u062f\u0645 \u062a\u0648\u0641\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0636\u0631\u0648\u0631\u064a \u0648\u0647\u0648 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0646\u0641\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649\u060c \u0648\u0623\u0638\u0647\u0631\u062a \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0633\u0628\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0630\u0627\u062a \u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0648\u0627\u0648\u0635\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u0646\u0647 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u062a\u062e\u0641\u064a\u0636 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0631\u0643\u0632 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u062e\u0641\u064a\u0636 \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0645\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u062a\u0637\u0648\u064a\u0631 \u0648\u062a\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0639\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u062a\u062e\u0641\u064a\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0641\u0627\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0643\u0648\u0645\u064a.<\/p>\n\u0627\u0644\u0643\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0641\u062a\u0627\u062d\u064a\u0629: <\/strong>\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0646\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0631\u0641\u064a\u060c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645\u060c \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a.<\/p>\n<a id=\"post-11396-GrindEQpgref5f741fe61\"><\/a>Research title <\/strong><\/p>\nMeasuring the impact of central government borrowing from the banking system and its repercussions on inflation in Sudan during the period 2000-2022<\/strong><\/p>\nDr. Yousif ELhaj Haroun Yousif1<\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n1<\/sup> Associate Professor – Department of Economics – Faculty of Economics and Social Studies – University of El-Geneina – Sudan<\/p>\nEmail: yousifelhaj50@gmail.com<\/p>\nHNSJ, 2024, 5(10); https:\/\/doi.org\/10.53796\/hnsj510\/10<\/p>\nPublished at 01\/10\/2024 Accepted at 20\/09\/2024 <\/strong><\/p>\nAbstract <\/strong><\/p>\nThis study aimed to measure the impact of borrowing from the banking system on inflation using annual data for the period 2000-2022. To achieve the objectives of the study, the autoregressive model was used instead of the joint integration model due to the lack of the necessary condition, which is the stability of the data at the same level. The results of the study showed the existence of a one-way causal relationship from the budget deficit to inflation. The study recommended that inflation rates can be reduced through economic policies that focus on reducing the budget deficit, including developing and diversifying the production base and reducing government spending.<\/p>\nKey Words: <\/strong>Borrowing from the banking system, inflation, autoregressive model.<\/p>\n\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0629:<\/strong><\/p>\n\u0632\u064a\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0641\u0642\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0629 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062f\u0627\u062a \u0623\u062f\u0649 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0632\u0627\u062f \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0643\u0628\u064a\u0631 \u0648\u062e\u0627\u0635\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0633\u0639\u064a\u0646\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0647\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0643\u0648\u0645\u0629 \u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u0629 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\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0627\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0643\u0648\u0645\u064a\u0629 (\u0634\u0647\u0627\u0645\u0629) \u0648\u0634\u0647\u0627\u062f\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0634\u0627\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0646\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632\u064a (\u0634\u0645\u0645) \u0648\u0627\u0628\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0631 \u0622\u0644\u064a\u0627\u062a \u062c\u062f\u064a\u062f\u0647 \u062a\u062a\u064a\u062d \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0645\u062f\u062e\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0631\u0627\u062f \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0643\u0627\u062a \u0644\u062a\u0645\u0648\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0641\u0627\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0643\u0648\u0645\u064a.<\/p>\n2. \u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0647\u0648\u064a\u062f\u0627 \u0645\u062d\u062c\u0648\u0628 \u0627\u0628\u0631\u0627\u0647\u064a\u0645 (2016)<\/strong>: \u062a\u0648\u0635\u0644\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0636 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u064a\u0624\u062f\u0649 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0627\u0636 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0623\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0641\u064a \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0637\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062f\u0648\u0644\u0629 \u0648\u0632\u064a\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0642\u0648\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0632\u064a\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644 \u0646\u0645\u0648 \u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u062d\u062f\u062b \u0641\u064a\u0647 \u062a\u0624\u062f\u064a \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644 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\u062a\u0648\u062c\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062f\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0629 \u0648\u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0648\u0623\u064a\u0636\u0627\u064b \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0641\u0627\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645 \u0648\u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0648\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0641\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062c\u0644\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0648\u064a\u0644 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0642\u0635\u064a\u0631.<\/p>\n\u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0642 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629:<\/strong><\/p>\n\u0627\u062a\u0641\u0642\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a 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\u0625\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062f\u0627\u062a\u0647\u0627. (\u0631\u0645\u0632\u064a \u0632\u0643\u0649\u060c 2000\u0645).<\/p>\n\u0627\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0641\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0629:<\/strong><\/p>\n\u0644\u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062f\u0648\u0644\u0629 \u0639\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0639 \u0646\u0630\u0643\u0631 \u0645\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0644\u064a:<\/p>\n1. \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a: <\/strong>\u064a\u0639\u0628\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a \u0639\u0646 \u0635\u0627\u0641\u064a \u0645\u0637\u0627\u0644\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0637\u0627\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0643\u0648\u0645\u064a \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0631\u062f \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u064a\u062c\u0628 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(\u0627\u064a\u062f\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0646\u060c 1988).<\/p>\n\u062a\u0639\u0631\u064a\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645:<\/strong> \u064a\u0639\u0631\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0628\u0623\u0646\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631\u060c \u0648\u064a\u0634\u0645\u0644 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0623\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0639 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062e\u062f\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0646\u062a\u064a\u062c\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0637\u0644\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0627\u0626\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0636. (\u0627\u064a\u062f\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0646\u060c 1988).<\/p>\n\u0627\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645:<\/strong><\/p>\n1. \u064a\u0635\u0646\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0645\u0646 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0634\u0631\u0627\u0641 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0625\u0644\u0649:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0644\u064a\u0642: \u0627\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0641\u062a\u0648\u062d \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631 \u0641\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u062a\u062f\u062e\u0644\u0627\u064b \u062d\u0643\u0648\u0645\u064a\u0627\u064b.<\/li>\n<li>\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0643\u0628\u0648\u062a: \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631 \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0628\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0631\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0648\u0644\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n2. \u0645\u0646 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u062d\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0645\u062d: \u064a\u0638\u0647\u0631 \u0628\u0648\u0636\u0648\u062d \u0641\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0644\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u062a\u0633\u0645 \u0628\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0641\u064a \u0647\u064a\u0627\u0643\u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a\u062d\u062f\u062b \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0643\u0628\u064a\u0631 \u0641\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u062a\u0635\u0627\u062d\u0628\u0647 \u0632\u064a\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0645\u0645\u0627\u062b\u0644\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062c\u0648\u0631.<\/li>\n<li>\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0627\u062d\u0641: \u064a\u0638\u0647\u0631 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0648\u0639 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0644\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0646\u0627\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0629 \u0648\u064a\u062a\u0645\u064a\u0632 \u0628\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0637\u0641\u064a\u0641 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0646\u062a\u064a\u062c\u0629 \u0644\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0647\u0627\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c\u064a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0645\u062a\u0637\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0644\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0644\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0642.<\/li>\n<li>\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0631\u062f: \u0648\u064a\u062d\u062f\u062b \u0628\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0627\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0627\u0631\u062f\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0639\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n3. \u0645\u0646 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0645\u0635\u062f\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0636\u063a\u0648\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645\u064a\u0629:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u062c\u0630\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0644\u0628: \u0648\u064a\u062d\u062f\u062b \u0646\u062a\u064a\u062c\u0629 \u0644\u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0632\u064a\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0644\u0628 \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u0647 \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u062d\u0642\u064a\u0642\u064a.<\/li>\n<li>\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u062f\u0641\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0644\u0641\u0629: \u064a\u0646\u0634\u0623 \u0628\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0643\u0644\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0648\u0636 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0639 \u0628\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u062a\u0643\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0641 \u0639\u0646\u0627\u0635\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0648\u062e\u0627\u0635\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0627\u062e\u0644\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c\u064a\u0629.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0628\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0624\u062f\u064a \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0646\u0634\u0648\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645:<\/strong><\/p>\n1. \u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0646\u0627\u0634\u0626 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0641: <\/strong>\u064a\u0648\u0627\u062c\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062a\u062c\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u064b \u062a\u0632\u0627\u064a\u062f\u0627\u064b \u0645\u0641\u0627\u062c\u0626\u0627\u064b \u0641\u064a \u062a\u0643\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0641 \u0639\u0646\u0627\u0635\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0648\u0641\u0649 \u0628\u0639\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0648\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0639 \u0631\u0641\u0639 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062c\u0648\u0631 \u062f\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0646 \u064a\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n2. \u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0646\u0627\u0634\u0626 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0644\u0628:<\/strong> \u064a\u062d\u062f\u062b \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0632\u064a\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u062d\u062c\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f \u0639\u0646 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0635\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0648\u064a\u0635\u0627\u062d\u0628\u0647 \u0639\u0631\u0636 \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0639 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062e\u062f\u0645\u0627\u062a\u060c \u0623\u064a \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u0647 \u0632\u064a\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0624\u062f\u064a \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631.<\/p>\n3. \u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0646\u0627\u0634\u0626 \u0639\u0646 \u0645\u0645\u0627\u0631\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a:<\/strong> \u0646\u062a\u064a\u062c\u0629 \u0644\u0645\u0645\u0627\u0631\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a \u0645\u0646 \u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0642\u0648\u0649 \u062e\u0627\u0631\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u064a\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062f \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0635\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0639 \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0624\u062f\u064a \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645.<\/p>\n4. \u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0646\u0627\u0634\u0626 \u0639\u0646 \u0632\u064a\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0648\u0627\u0626\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0629: <\/strong>\u0645\u0646 \u0627\u062d\u062f \u0627\u0643\u0628\u0631 \u0627\u0633\u0628\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0648\u064a\u0646\u062a\u062c \u0639\u0646 \u0625\u0636\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0626\u062f\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0631\u0623\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631.<\/p>\n5. \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0631\u062f: <\/strong>\u0646\u0627\u0634\u0626 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0639 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062e\u062f\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0631\u062f\u0629\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0632\u064a\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0639\u0629 \u0641\u0649 \u0627\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0639 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0623\u062a\u064a \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0631\u062c \u0648\u064a\u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645\u0647\u0627 \u0645\u0628\u0627\u0634\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0647\u0644\u0643. (\u0627\u064a\u062f\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0646\u060c 1988).<\/p>\n\u0639\u0648\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u062e\u0631\u0649 \u062a\u0624\u062f\u064a \u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645: <\/strong><\/p>\n\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0631\u0648\u0628 \u0623\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062f\u0627\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u062a\u0643\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u062d\u0646 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0644 \u0648\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0627\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0641\u0637 \u0648\u0632\u064a\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0644\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0644\u064a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0639 \u0627\u0636\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0648\u0627\u0644 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\u0648\u0628\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0643\u0648\u0645\u0629 \u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0635\u0644\u0627\u062d\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u062a\u062e\u0641\u064a\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0641\u0627\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0643\u0648\u0645\u064a \u0648\u0632\u064a\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0648\u0636 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0639 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062e\u062f\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0636\u062a \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0646\u0648\u0627\u062a \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 (1997 – 2000\u0645) \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0628\u0644\u063a \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 47% \u0639\u0627\u0645 1997\u0645 \u0628\u064a\u0646\u0645\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0627\u0645 1996\u0645 130%\u060c 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\u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u062f\u0646\u0649 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u064a\u0627\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0627\u0645 2001\u0645 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0628\u0644\u063a \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 4.9%\u060c \u0648\u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0641\u0627\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0631\u0643\u064a\u0632 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062a\u0631\u0648\u0644 \u0643\u0645\u0635\u062f\u0631 \u0627\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0625\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062f\u0627\u062a \u0638\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631\u0627 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u0648\u0627\u0645 (2001\u0645 – 2005\u0645)\u060c \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0628\u0644\u063a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0644\u064a 250\u060c 456\u060c 326\u060c 799\u060c 1663 \u0645\u0644\u064a\u0648\u0646 \u062c\u0646\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0628\u064a\u0646\u0645\u0627 \u0627\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0636\u062a \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u0648\u0627\u0645 (2001- 2005\u0645) \u0648\u062d\u0642\u0642\u062a \u0627\u0631\u0642\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u062d\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0643\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u064a 4.9\u060c 8,3\u060c 7,7\u060c 8,4%.<\/p>\n\u0648\u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0632\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0627\u0645 2008\u0645 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0642\u062a \u0628\u0638\u0644\u0627\u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u0627\u062b\u0631 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0639 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0625\u0644\u0649 14,3 \u0628\u064a\u0646\u0645\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0627\u0645 2007\u0645 8.1 % \u0648\u0647\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u0648\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0648\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0644\u062a \u0627\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0642\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0627\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0636\u062a \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0625\u0644\u0649 7.2 \u06488.1%\u060c \u0641\u0649 \u0639\u0627\u0645 2006 \u06482007\u0645 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0644\u064a.<\/p>\n\u0648\u0628\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0646\u0641\u0635\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0646\u0648\u0628 \u0648\u062e\u0631\u0648\u062c \u0646\u0633\u0628\u0647 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0647 \u0645\u0646 \u0635\u0627\u062f\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0641\u0637 \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0639\u062a \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0627\u0645\u064a 2011\u0645 \u06482012\u0645 \u0625\u0644\u0649 18,1 \u064835,1 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0644\u064a\u060c \u0648\u0635\u0627\u062d\u0628\u062a \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0641\u064a \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0648\u0628\u0644\u063a \u0623\u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0627\u0645 2011\u0645 \u0645\u0633\u062c\u0644\u0627 9426.1 \u0645\u0644\u064a\u0648\u0646 \u062c\u060c \u0648\u0628\u064a\u0646\u0645\u0627 \u0627\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0636 \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0627\u0645 2012\u0645 \u0625\u0644\u0649 7653.4 \u0645\u0644\u064a\u0648\u0646 \u062c\u0646\u064a\u0647 \u0628\u064a\u0646\u0645\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0641\u0635\u0627\u0644 \u0623\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u0648\u0627\u0645 2009\u0645\u060c 2010\u0645\u060c 4895.5\u060c 7586.1 \u0645\u0644\u064a\u0648\u0646 \u062c.<\/p>\n\u0648\u0638\u0644 \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0645\u062a\u0623\u0631\u062c\u062d\u0627 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0627\u0636 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0646\u0647\u0627\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629\u060c \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0628\u0644\u063a \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0639\u0627\u0645 2015\u0645 16,9%\u060c \u0628\u064a\u0646\u0645\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0627\u0645 2014\u0645 36,9%\u060c \u0628\u064a\u0646\u0645\u0627 \u0628\u0644\u063a \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0639\u0627\u0645 2015\u0645 6976 \u0645\u0644\u064a\u0648\u0646 \u062c\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0633\u062c\u0644\u0627 \u0627\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0627\u0636\u0627 \u0639\u0627\u0645 2014\u0645 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0628\u0644\u063a 4425.1 \u0645\u0644\u064a\u0648\u0646 \u062c.<\/p>\n\u0627\u0644\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0631\u0642\u0645 (2)<\/strong><\/p>\n\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645 \u0644\u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 (1990 – 2015\u0645)<\/strong><\/p>\n\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u062f\u0631: \u0625\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u0631\u0646\u0627\u0645\u062c (Excel).<\/p>\n\u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0631\u0642\u0645 (2) \u0627\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0635 \u0628\u062a\u0637\u0648\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 1990 – 2015\u0645 \u064a\u062a\u0636\u062d \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631 \u0644\u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0641\u064a \u0628\u062f\u0627\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0646 \u0628\u0644\u063a \u0627\u0642\u0635\u0627\u0647 \u0641\u0649 \u0639\u0627\u0645 1996\u0645 \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u062b\u0645 \u0628\u062f\u0627\u0621 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062c\u0639 \u0645\u062a\u0630\u0628\u0630\u0628\u0627 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0627\u0636 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639.<\/p>\n\u0627\u0644\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0631\u0642\u0645 (3)<\/strong><\/p>\n\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645 \u0644\u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0641\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 (1990 – 2015\u0645)<\/strong><\/p>\n\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u062f\u0631: \u0625\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u0631\u0646\u0627\u0645\u062c (Excel).<\/p>\n\u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0631\u0642\u0645 (3) \u0627\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0647 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u064a\u0648\u0636\u062d \u062a\u0637\u0648\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u064b \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645 \u0637\u0648\u0627\u0644 \u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0633\u0639\u064a\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0628\u064a\u0646\u0645\u0627 \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0639 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u0648\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u062a\u0630\u0628\u0630\u0628\u0627\u064b \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0627\u0636 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0639 \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0627\u0645 2008\u0645 \u0648\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0644\u062a\u0627\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0632\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0636 \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0627\u0645 2010\u0645 \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u062b\u0645 \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0639 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u0648\u0627\u0645 2011\u0645 \u0625\u0644\u0649 2013\u0645 \u0648\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0644\u0627\u0646\u0641\u0635\u0627\u0644 \u062c\u0646\u0648\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0648\u062e\u0631\u0648\u062c \u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0635\u0627\u062f\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0641\u0637 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0632\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u0627\u062f\u062a \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0627\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062f\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u062d\u062c\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0641\u0627\u0642.<\/p>\n\u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0629:<\/strong><\/p>\n\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0648\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645: <\/strong><\/p>\n\u062a\u0645\u0647\u064a\u062f:<\/strong><\/p>\n\u064a\u0639\u062a\u0628\u0631 \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0623\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0633\u0627\u0626\u0644 \u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a \u0639\u0628\u0631 \u0639\u062f\u0629 \u0642\u0648\u0627\u0639\u062f \u0648\u0627\u062c\u0631\u0627\u0621\u0627\u062a \u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c\u060c \u0648\u064a\u062a\u0645 \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0639\u0628\u0631 \u0639\u062f\u0629 \u0645\u0631\u0627\u062d\u0644 \u064a\u0645\u0631 \u0628\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0648\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a \u062c\u064a\u062f\u060c \u062a\u0628\u062f\u0623 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u062d\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0629 \u062a\u0639\u064a\u064a\u0646 \u0648\u062a\u0648\u0635\u064a\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0623\u064a \u0635\u064a\u0627\u063a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u062d\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u062b\u0645 \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c. (\u0645\u064a\u0633\u0627\u0621 \u0633\u0639\u064a\u062f\u060c 2016\u0645).<\/p>\n\u0623\u0648\u0644\u0627\u064b. \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u0648\u062a\u0648\u0635\u064a\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c: <\/strong><\/p>\n\u062a\u0648\u0635\u064a\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c: <\/strong>\u062a\u0648\u0635\u064a\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0648 \u062a\u0639\u064a\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0647\u0648 \u062a\u0639\u0631\u064a\u0641 \u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0648\u0635\u064a\u0627\u063a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u062d\u062a\u0649 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644\u0627\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629. (\u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0641\u0648\u060c 2010\u0645).<\/p>\n\u062e\u0637\u0648\u0627\u062a \u062a\u0648\u0635\u064a\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c:<\/strong><\/p>\n1. \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>\u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629: \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u064a\u0631\u0645\u0632 \u0644\u0647 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0631\u0645\u0632 (BD).<\/li>\n<li>\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 : \u0648\u064a\u0631\u0645\u0632 \u0644\u0647 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0631\u0645\u0632 (INF).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0627\u064b. \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u064a\u062d\u062a\u0648\u064a \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c:<\/strong><\/p>\n\u2026\u2026\u2026\u2026\u2026\u2026… (1)<\/p>\n\u2026\u2026\u2026\u2026\u2026\u2026 (2)<\/p>\n\u062b\u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u064b. \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0634\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0628\u0642\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645:<\/strong> \u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0628\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u064a\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0627\u0646 \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0634\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0648\u0644\u0649 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062d\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a:<\/p>\n\u03b1 = \u064a\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0627\u0646 \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0634\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0645\u0648\u062c\u0628\u0629 \u0648\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u062d\u0633\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n\u064a\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0627\u0646 \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0634\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0645\u0648\u062c\u0628\u0629 \u0648\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0644\u0637\u0631\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e \u0648\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u062d\u0633\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629: <\/strong><\/p>\n\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0628\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629\u060c \u064a\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0627\u0646 \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0634\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062d\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a:<\/p>\n= \u064a\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0627\u0646 \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0634\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0645\u0648\u062c\u0628\u0629 \u0648\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u062d\u0633\u0628 \u0645\u0646\u0637\u0648\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n= \u064a\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0627\u0646 \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0634\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0645\u0648\u062c\u0628\u0629 \u0648\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u062d\u0633\u0628 \u0645\u0646\u0637\u0648\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c:<\/strong><\/p>\n\u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0626\u064a\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0628\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0647\u064a \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 (Granger1987) \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0628\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0635\u063a\u0631\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0645\u0639 \u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u062c\u0631\u0627\u0646\u062c\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u0633\u0628\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u062a\u0645 \u0639\u0628\u0631 \u0639\u062f\u0629 \u0645\u0631\u0627\u062d\u0644 \u062a\u0628\u062f\u0623 \u0628\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643 \u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u062b\u0645 \u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062c\u0648\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0639\u0646 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u062e\u0637\u0623 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0647\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0644\u0640 (Akaike)\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0642\u062a\u0636\u064a \u0627\u0646 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u062e\u0637\u0623 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0647\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0627\u0642\u0644 \u062d\u062f \u0645\u0645\u0643\u0646.<\/p>\n\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0633\u0643\u0648\u0646: <\/strong><\/p>\n\u064a\u062a\u0646\u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0632\u0621 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u062c\u0630\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u062d\u062f\u0629 (\u062f\u064a\u0643\u064a \u0641\u0648\u0644\u0644\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0643\u0628) \u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0635\u0641\u0629 \u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c\u060c \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u0630 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0645\u0643\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u062a\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646 \u0637\u0648\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062c\u0644 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u064a\u0627\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0648\u0647\u0648 \u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0637\u0644\u0642 \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643\u060c \u0648\u0642\u062f \u0627\u0648\u0636\u062d\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0629 (Stock and wason 1989) \u0627\u0646 \u0627\u063a\u0644\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u064a\u0627\u062a\u0647\u0627 (\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0633\u0627\u0643\u0646\u0647)\u060c \u0623\u064a \u0627\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u062a\u062d\u062a\u0648\u064a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062c\u0630\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u062d\u062f\u0629 \u0648\u064a\u0624\u062f\u064a \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u062c\u0630\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u062d\u062f\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0632\u0627\u0626\u0641 \u0648\u0645\u0634\u0627\u0643\u0644 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062f\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a\u060c \u0644\u0630\u0627 \u0644\u0627\u0628\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u062c\u0631\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0648 \u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0633\u0645\u0649 \u0628\u0633\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629. ( \u0637\u0627\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0634\u064a\u062f\u060c 2005\u0645).<\/p>\n\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a: <\/strong>\u0641\u064a\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0644\u064a \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0645\u064a \u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0639\u062f\u0645\u0647 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 (\u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062d\u0645) \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 (1990 – 2015).<\/p>\n\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644 \u0631\u0642\u0645 (1) \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u062f\u064a\u0643\u064a \u0641\u0648\u0644\u0644\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644 \u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u064a \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n\u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n-3.545041<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n-2.986225<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\n\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n-7.700513<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n-2.991878<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\n\u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0648\u0644<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u062f\u0631: \u0625\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u0631\u0646\u0627\u0645\u062c (9 – Eviews).<\/p>\n\u0648\u064a\u0648\u0636\u062d \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644 \u0631\u0642\u0645 (1) \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u062c\u0630\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u062d\u062f\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062d\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0634\u0645\u0644 \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 (BD) \u0648\u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 (INF) \u0648\u064a\u062a\u0636\u062d \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0633\u0627\u0643\u0646\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u064a\u0627\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0627\u0646 \u062c\u0645\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629 \u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 (T) \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 ADF)) \u0627\u0642\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0623\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0627\u064b \u0648\u0639\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u0623\u0646\u0647 \u062a\u0645 \u0642\u0628\u0648\u0644 \u0641\u0631\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0626\u0644\u0629 \u0628\u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0633\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649. \u0625\u0644\u0627 \u0627\u0646\u0647 \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0648\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0648\u0644\u0649 \u0644\u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u062a\u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u062a\u0635\u0628\u062d \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0646\u0649 \u0627\u0645\u0643\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0631\u0641\u0636 \u0641\u0631\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0645\u062b\u0644\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0633\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0626\u0647 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062c\u0632\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u062d\u062f\u0629.<\/p>\n\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643 : <\/strong><\/p>\n\u0639\u0646\u062f \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0633\u0627\u0643\u0646\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0641\u0625\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0632\u0627\u0626\u0641\u0627\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0627 \u0627\u0646 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u062a\u062d\u0642\u0642 \u0627\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0647\u0627 \u062e\u0627\u0635\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643 \u0648\u064a\u0639\u0631\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u062a\u064a\u0646 \u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u062a\u064a\u0646 \u0628\u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u062d\u062f\u0649 \u0647\u0627\u062a\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u062a\u064a\u0646 \u064a\u0624\u062f\u064a \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0625\u0644\u063a\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u0631\u0649\u060c \u0628\u0645\u0639\u0646\u0649 \u0627\u0646\u0647 \u0627\u0630\u0627 \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0647\u0645\u0627 \u0643\u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0646\u062c\u062f \u0627\u0646 \u0647\u0646\u0627\u0644\u0643 \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u062e\u0637\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646\u0647\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0646 \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0633\u0627\u0643\u0646\u0629 \u0648\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0629\u060c \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0648\u0636\u0648\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u062a\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u064a\u0647 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062c\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0648\u064a\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u063a\u0645 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0627\u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062c\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0635\u064a\u0631\u060c (\u0637\u0627\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0634\u064a\u062f\u060c 2005\u0645).<\/p>\n\u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644 \u0631\u0642\u0645 (2)<\/strong><\/p>\n\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 (\u062c\u0648\u0647\u0627\u0646\u0633\u0648\u0646 \u2013 \u062c\u0648\u064a\u0644\u0644\u0632) \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 LR<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n\u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u00a014.26460<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n19.54427<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\nNone <\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u00a03.841466<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u00a06.201111<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\nAt most 1 <\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u062f\u0631: \u0625\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u0631\u0646\u0627\u0645\u062c (9 – Eviews).<\/p>\n\u0648\u0628\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0647\u0648 \u0645\u0648\u0636\u062d \u0641\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644 \u0631\u0642\u0645 (2) \u062d\u064a\u062b \u062a\u0634\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0641\u0649 \u0638\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062b\u0631 (trace) \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0638\u0645\u0649 (maximal) \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 5% \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0631\u0641\u0636 \u0641\u0631\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0630\u0649 \u064a\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0628\u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0623\u064a \u0645\u062a\u062c\u0647\u0629 \u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643 \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f\u060c \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0633\u0648\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0645\u0643\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629LR \u062a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a (19.54427) \u062a\u0632\u064a\u062f \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0631\u062c\u0629 (14.26460) \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0642\u0628\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062f\u064a\u0644 \u0628\u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0645\u062a\u062c\u0647\u064a\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u0633\u064a\u062a\u062d\u0635\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647\u0627 \u0633\u0648\u0641 \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u062c\u064a\u062f\u0629 \u0648\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u062a\u062d\u064a\u0632\u0629\u060c \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u064a\u0646\u0628\u063a\u064a \u0627\u0646 \u062a\u062d\u0638\u0649 \u0628\u062a\u0645\u062b\u064a\u0644 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u062a\u0635\u062d\u064a\u062d \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0623 \u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062b\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0635\u064a\u0631\u0629 \u0648\u0637\u0648\u064a\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062f\u0649 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645.<\/p>\n\u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0628\u0637\u0627\u0621: <\/strong><\/p>\n\u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637\u0624 \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u062c\u0648\u0621 \u0644\u0645\u0639\u064a\u0627\u0631\u064a (AIC) \u0648(FPE) \u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0638 \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644 \u0631\u0642\u0645 (3) \u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637\u0624 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a \u0641\u062a\u0631\u062a\u0627\u0646 \u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u062a\u0627\u0646.<\/p>\n\u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644 \u0631\u0642\u0645 (3) \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062c\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\">\nVAR Lag Order Selection Criteria<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\">\nEndogenous variables: BD INF\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\">\nExogenous variables: C\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\">\nDate: 12\/14\/17 Time: 10:35<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\">\nSample: 1990 2015<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\">\nIncluded observations: 24<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n\u00a0Lag<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\nLog L<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\nLR<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\nFPE<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\nAIC<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\nSC<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\nHQ<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n-347.2765<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\nNA\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u00a01.50e+10<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u00a029.10637<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u00a029.20454<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u00a029.13242<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n-328.4843<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u00a0\u00a032.88624<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u00a04.38e+09<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u00a027.87369<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u00a0\u00a028.16821<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u00a027.95183<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n-323.1252<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u00a08.485346<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u00a0\u00a03.95e+09<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u00a0\u00a027.76043<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u00a028.25128<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u00a0\u00a027.89065*<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u062f\u0631: \u0625\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u0631\u0646\u0627\u0645\u062c (9 – Eviews).<\/p>\n\u0648\u064a\u062a\u0636\u062d \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644 (3) \u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062c\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0647\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062c\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0647\u064a \u0627\u0642\u0644 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0644\u0645\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633 (AIC) \u0648\u062a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a (27.76043) \u0648\u0627\u0642\u0644 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0644\u062e\u0637\u0623 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0647\u0627\u0626\u064a.<\/p>\n\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0628\u0628\u064a\u0629: <\/strong>\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0628\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u062a\u062c\u0647 \u0645\u0646 \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645.<\/p>\n\u062a\u0642\u0648\u0645 \u0633\u0628\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u062c\u0631\u0627\u0646\u062c\u0631 \u0628\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0633\u0628\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0627\u062a \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0644\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u062c\u0631\u0627\u0621 \u0645\u062a\u062c\u0647\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a (VAR) \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0643\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0628\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062c\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0648\u064a\u0644.<\/p>\n\u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644 \u0631\u0642\u0645 (4) \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0628\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"4\">\nPairwise Granger Causality Tests<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"4\">\nDate: 12\/14\/17 Time: 10:47<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\">\nSample: 1990 2015<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\">\nLags: 2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"4\">\nPairwise Granger Causality Tests<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"4\">\nDate: 12\/14\/17 Time: 10:47<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\">\nSample: 1990 2015<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\">\nLags: 2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n\u00a0Null Hypothesis:<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\nObs<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\nF-Statistic<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\nProb.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n\u00a0BD does not Granger Cause INF<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u00a024<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u00a02.14335<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n0.1448<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\">\n\u00a0INF does not Granger Cause BD<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u00a04.58882<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n0.0237<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n\u00a0Null Hypothesis:<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\nObs<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\nF-Statistic<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\nProb.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n\u00a0BD does not Granger Cause INF<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u00a024<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u00a02.14335<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n0.1448<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\">\n\u00a0INF does not Granger Cause BD<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n\u00a04.58882<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n0.0237<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n <\/strong> \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u062f\u0631: \u0627\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u0631\u0646\u0627\u0645\u062c (9-Eviews).<\/p>\n\u064a\u0648\u0636\u062d \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644 \u0631\u0642\u0645 (4) \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0628\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u064a\u0646 \u0645\u062d\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0648\u0647\u0645\u0627 \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0648\u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u062a\u0634\u064a\u0631 \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0628\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062c\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0648\u064a\u0644 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0642\u0635\u064a\u0631 \u0641\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u0648\u0644 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0646 \u0627\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 (f) \u0628\u0644\u063a\u062a (4.58882) \u0628\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0642\u062f\u0631\u0647 (0.0237 ) \u0641\u0625\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u0646\u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0641\u0631\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u064a\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u062d\u0633\u0628 \u0645\u0641\u0647\u0648\u0645 \u062c\u0631\u0627\u0646\u062c\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0635\u0644\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629.<\/p>\n\u0627\u0645\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0646\u062a\u064a\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0641\u0631\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0633\u0628\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u062a\u062c\u0647 \u0645\u0646 \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0641\u064a\u0634\u064a\u0631 \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0627\u0646 \u0627\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 (f) \u0628\u0644\u063a\u062a (2.14335) \u0628\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0642\u062f\u0631\u0647 (0.1448) \u0644\u0630\u0627 \u0641\u0625\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u0646\u0631\u0641\u0636 \u0641\u0631\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u064a\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0627\u0649 \u062a\u0648\u062c\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0633\u0628\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0630\u0627\u062a \u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f \u062a\u062a\u062c\u0647 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629.<\/p>\n\u0645\u0646\u0627\u0642\u0634\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c: <\/strong><\/p>\n1. \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u062c\u0630\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u062d\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0646 \u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0628\u064a\u0646\u0645\u0627 \u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0648\u0644\u0649.<\/p>\n2. \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643 \u0627\u062b\u0628\u062a\u062a \u0628\u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062d\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062c\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0648\u064a\u0644.<\/p>\n3. \u062a\u0648\u062c\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0633\u0628\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0630\u0627\u062a \u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u064a\u0624\u0643\u062f \u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0641\u0649 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u062a\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629.<\/p>\n\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0635\u0640\u064a\u0627\u062a:<\/strong><\/p>\n\u0641\u064a \u0636\u0648\u0621 \u0645\u0627 \u0627\u0648\u0636\u062d\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b \u0645\u0646 \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0641\u0623\u0646\u0647 \u064a\u0648\u0635\u064a \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u064a:<\/p>\n1. \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0632\u064a\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0644\u0632\u064a\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0648\u0636 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0639 \u0644\u062a\u062e\u0641\u064a\u0636 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0648\u0627\u064a\u062c\u0627\u062f \u0648\u0633\u0627\u0626\u0644 \u0648\u0627\u062f\u0648\u0627\u062a \u0644\u062a\u0642\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u062b\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062f\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0635\u064a\u0631 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0637\u0648\u064a\u0644.<\/p>\n2. \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b \u0639\u0646 \u0637\u0631\u0642 \u0628\u062f\u064a\u0644\u0647 \u0644\u062a\u0645\u0648\u064a\u0644 \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0628\u062f\u0644\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0646\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0646\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632\u064a \u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0631\u0641\u064a.<\/p>\n3. \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u062e\u0641\u064a\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0641\u0627\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0643\u0648\u0645\u064a \u0648\u0632\u064a\u0627\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062f\u0627\u062a \u0644\u062a\u062e\u0641\u064a\u0636 \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629.<\/p>\n\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u062c\u0639:<\/strong><\/p>\n1. \u0627\u064a\u0645\u0627\u0646 \u063a\u0633\u0627\u0646 \u0634\u062d\u0631\u0648\u0631 (2013\u0645) \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0629 \u0641\u0649 \u0633\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u062b\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0628\u062d\u0648\u062b \u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0631\u0628\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0633\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0627\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u062f 63 \u2013 64.<\/p>\n2. \u062d\u0633\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u062c (2007\u0645)\u060c \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0643\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0644\u0648\u0644\u060c \u0645\u062c\u0644\u0629 \u062c\u0633\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0645\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0647\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0628\u0649 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u062e\u0637\u064a\u0637\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0648\u064a\u062a.<\/p>\n3. \u0637\u0627\u0631\u0642 \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0634\u064a\u062f \u0648\u0633\u0627\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u062d\u0633\u0646 \u0645\u062d\u0645\u0648\u062f (2012)\u060c \u062f\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062c\u0648\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0628\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f \u0648\u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641\u060c \u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0646\u0634\u0631\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0645\u062c\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u060c \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0645 \u062f\u0631\u0645\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0645\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u062f 12\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646.<\/p>\n4. \u0645\u0627\u064a\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u064a\u062f\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0646 (1988)\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u062a\u0639\u0631\u064a\u0628 \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0627\u0628\u0631\u0627\u0647\u064a\u0645 \u0645\u0646\u0635\u0648\u0631 (\u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u060c \u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0634\u0631)\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0639\u0648\u062f\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n5. \u0645\u0646\u0627\u0644 \u0639\u0628\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0647 (2011\u0645) \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u062b\u0631\u0647\u0627\u060c \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0639\u062f\u0646\u060c \u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u060c \u0627\u0644\u064a\u0645\u0646.<\/p>\n6. \u0645\u064a\u0633\u0627\u0621 \u0633\u0639\u064a\u062f (2016\u0645)\u060c \u0627\u062b\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062c\u0648\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0628\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0648\u062f \u0648\u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646\u060c \u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u062f\u0643\u062a\u0648\u0631\u0627\u0629\u060c \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0646\u0648\u0644\u0648\u062c\u064a\u0627\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646.<\/p>\n7. \u0643\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0639\u064a\u0633\u0649 (2013)\u060c \u0645\u062d\u062f\u062f\u0627\u062a \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646\u060c \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0645 \u062f\u0631\u0645\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0645\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0645\u062c\u0644\u0629 \u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646.<\/p>\n8. \u0639\u0628\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0647 \u0639\u0628\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641 \u0639\u0628\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0647 (2006)\u060c \u062a\u0637\u0648\u0631 \u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0629\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062f\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0628\u062d\u0648\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629\u060c \u062c\u0645\u0647\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0635\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0628\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n9. \u0631\u0645\u0632\u0649 \u0632\u0643\u0649 (2000)\u060c \u0627\u0646\u0641\u062c\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062c\u0632\u060c \u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062f\u0649 \u0644\u0644\u062b\u0642\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0634\u0631\u060c \u062f\u0645\u0634\u0642.<\/p>\n10. \u0647\u062f\u0649 \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0633\u0644\u064a\u0645\u0627\u0646 (2003\u0645)\u060c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0645\u0648\u064a\u0644 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0648\u0623\u062b\u0631\u0647 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646\u060c \u0631\u0633\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0627\u062c\u0633\u062a\u064a\u0631 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0646\u0634\u0648\u0631\u0647\u060c \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0646\u0648\u0644\u0648\u062c\u064a\u0627.<\/p>\n11. \u0647\u0648\u064a\u062f\u0627 \u0645\u062d\u062c\u0648\u0628 \u0627\u0628\u0631\u0627\u0647\u064a\u0645 (2016)\u060c \u062a\u0637\u0648\u0631 \u0623\u062f\u0627\u0621 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 (2004 – 2014)\u060c \u0628\u0646\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632\u064a\u060c \u0645\u062c\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0631\u0641\u064a\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u062f 80.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633 \u0623\u062b\u0631 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0646\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0643\u0648\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0631\u0641\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0646\u0639\u0643\u0633\u0627\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 2000 – 2022\u0645. \u062f. \u064a\u0648\u0633\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u062c \u0647\u0627\u0631\u0648\u0646 \u064a\u0648\u0633\u06411 1 \u0623\u0633\u062a\u0627\u0630 \u0645\u0634\u0627\u0631\u0643 \u0628\u0642\u0633\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f – \u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_joinchat":[],"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-11396","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/11396","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11396"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/11396\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11417,"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/11396\/revisions\/11417"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hnjournal.net\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11396"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}}